Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THAN $100

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100

Unread postby Pixie » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 14:12:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o they are going to replace oil with internet


Yes. The Internet can replace A LOT of oil. How? Well, I make my entire living on the Internet. Taught myself everything I know while I was a sheet metal construction worker. Made good money doing that and make only about 60% of that now.
.


That's great, and it's a great idea. Tell me your website, and I will download a loaf of bread, oranges from California, bananas from Central America, and kalamata olives from Greece.
Just another tofu-munching bike-riding Rambo(/Rambette)
User avatar
Pixie
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 330
Joined: Tue 05 Sep 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Oregon

Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100

Unread postby Pixie » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 14:15:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', '
')
That's great, and it's a great idea. Tell me your website, and I will download a loaf of bread, oranges from California, bananas from Central America, and kalamata olives from Greece.


Speaking of bread, I live in a wheat growing region of Oregon. We produce soft white wheat for asian noodles. We ship our wheat to Asia. Meanwhile, my bread is made with hard red wheat from the midwest.

Sigh, I will miss bread.
Just another tofu-munching bike-riding Rambo(/Rambette)
User avatar
Pixie
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 330
Joined: Tue 05 Sep 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Oregon

Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100

Unread postby Drake » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 15:41:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pixie', '
')
That's great, and it's a great idea. Tell me your website, and I will download a loaf of bread, oranges from California, bananas from Central America, and kalamata olives from Greece.


Speaking of bread, I live in a wheat growing region of Oregon. We produce soft white wheat for asian noodles. We ship our wheat to Asia. Meanwhile, my bread is made with hard red wheat from the midwest.

Sigh, I will miss bread.


Hey, it could be worse, I like asian noodles, hihihi.
User avatar
Drake
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri 04 Jan 2008, 04:00:00
Top

Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100

Unread postby Fiddlerdave » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 16:35:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drake', 'H')ey, it could be worse, I like asian noodles, hihihi.
As you can enjoy them as long as you can outbid the Asian currencies to buy them with your U$D. Imagine the price you will pay if the exchange rate is 7 U$D to 1 Yuan, instead of 7 Yuan to the U$D.

Saudi Arabia is simply quitting growing wheat! Why bother, when the USA produces it so cheaply for them?
User avatar
Fiddlerdave
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 582
Joined: Sun 18 Mar 2007, 03:00:00
Top

Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100

Unread postby Drake » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 17:47:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fiddlerdave', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drake', 'H')ey, it could be worse, I like asian noodles, hihihi.
As you can enjoy them as long as you can outbid the Asian currencies to buy them with your U$D. Imagine the price you will pay if the exchange rate is 7 U$D to 1 Yuan, instead of 7 Yuan to the U$D.

Saudi Arabia is simply quitting growing wheat! Why bother, when the USA produces it so cheaply for them?


I buy in Euro anyway, but I think the US will sooner or later realize the leverage it has with excess food production. It pretty much trumps excess oil production. And the Saudis don't quit growing wheat because your stuff is so cheap, they run out of water. They tapped a nice little basin of sweet water from the ice ages beneath their sand and now that's pretty much gone and there is no way for them to make up for that with desalination plants.
From a german perspective you've run out of decent bread anyway, or to be more precise you never even had it in the first place :-D

http://www.magazine-deutschland.de/issu ... ENG_E1.php
User avatar
Drake
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri 04 Jan 2008, 04:00:00
Top

Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100

Unread postby Gandalf_the_White » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 18:04:49

We never seem to run out of folks who are going to come in no matter how high the price and say the good times are just around the corner, oil will drop back to $50 per barrel. Dream on. It will not happen without significant demand destruction, ie a major recession. If that seems preferable to letting prices hit their fair market level and then motivate change to alternatives ok. Someone will get rich off of it, the average person will get much poorer. So when economists pipe in and say $50 per barrel in five years they are purposely failing to tell you what they know all to well. Demand must be reduced or supply increased for prices to go down from here. Supply has not significantly increased in three years in the face of record high demand. No fair market acts that way people. The writing is on the wall, wake up now.
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
User avatar
Gandalf_the_White
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 165
Joined: Wed 21 Nov 2007, 04:00:00

Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100

Unread postby oilgone » Tue 11 Mar 2008, 02:39:12

I think that what Misterno is trying to understand is :

" why the forward curve is not bucking the trend of the front month"

Well, having options calls on the forward curve, i raised myself the question and came out with this:

1/ the huge bacwardation in the crude market will end up when the forward month will be the front month trading

2/ Many floor traders are long forward put option so they had to hedge by selling futures contracts and asthe liquidity in the forward curve is quite equal to zero they had to slam the contracts.

3/ If as Misterno says oil will always be less than 100 bucks , at this price, i can buy up to 130 000 bbls.

peak oil is there, the forward you go, the more you 'll fell it.......

Oilgone
User avatar
oilgone
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 2
Joined: Sun 17 Feb 2008, 04:00:00

Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100

Unread postby misterno » Tue 11 Mar 2008, 13:54:10

oilgone

you are very technical, I am sorry i did not understand what you said

Would you please write it in plain English, like to someone who knows anyhing about energy economics or options.

Please.
User avatar
misterno
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 844
Joined: Wed 07 Mar 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Somewhere super boring

Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100

Unread postby Concerned » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 15:27:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o they are going to replace oil with internet


Yes. The Internet can replace A LOT of oil.

You not driving and 100 like you or 10,000 or 1,000,000 just frees up more oil for someone else to drive a hummer or their first car in Chindia.

The growth based economy is the root of our problem.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
If all those corporate administrative cubicles were moved out of all those buildings and into employees homes, that would reduce carbon emissions, reduce the use of raw materials to build floor space for those cubicles, it would relieve some of the stress on our infrastructure, and it would give our service industry a little elbow room to move around more easily, resulting, perhaps, in a more expedited and efficient system.


Not really. The reason you have large city centers is the massive talent pool which is easily accessible.

I can be in the city and organize a meeting with technical staff who in turn can tap their specialist's on the shoulder. I can meet with legal if required to thrash out some point in a contract, the legal team can in turn have access to their specialist's. Marketing, customer service and other departments can similarly be leveraged. It is a fast and efficient way of doing business.

Trust me if everyone worked from home projects would take an order of magnitude greater time to complete double or triple perhaps more if you factor in the flow on effects of specialists trying to contact specialists.
"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
-Italian Proverb
User avatar
Concerned
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1571
Joined: Thu 23 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Top

WHY THE SKY WILL ALWAYS BE A DELICATE SHADE OF MUAVE

Unread postby RainShadow » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 21:14:12

Question:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', 'Y')ou do know that oil is presently trading over $105?


Response:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'S')peculation is short term

we are talking about long term


:boggle:

But surely, surely there was some tiny little voice in your mind as you typed the subject of this thread that said: "no, wait, there's something wrong there."

You're not really Tom Friedman are you?
Image
User avatar
RainShadow
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 31
Joined: Wed 06 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 21:45:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', '
')Trust me if everyone worked from home projects would take an order of magnitude greater time to complete double or triple perhaps more if you factor in the flow on effects of specialists trying to contact specialists.


Very true. I work from home in an extremely specialized field, for which the talent pool is small. I can't grow my business because it would (probably) be impossible to find a skilled worker in this part of the country.
Ludi
 
Top

Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100

Unread postby Zythryn » Mon 17 Mar 2008, 21:47:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'S')peculation is short term

we are talking about long term.


So misterno, just what qualifies as long term?
When you say oil will always be less than $100, how long does the price have to be above $100 to falsify your statement?
User avatar
Zythryn
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 24
Joined: Tue 11 Dec 2007, 04:00:00
Top

Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100

Unread postby misterno » Tue 18 Mar 2008, 10:52:07

At least 1 year
User avatar
misterno
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 844
Joined: Wed 07 Mar 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Somewhere super boring

Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100

Unread postby Zythryn » Tue 18 Mar 2008, 15:55:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t least 1 year


Really?!?
So if 'always less than' means at it isn't higher than $100 for at least a year, what does 'a short period of time' mean in your world?!? ;D
User avatar
Zythryn
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 24
Joined: Tue 11 Dec 2007, 04:00:00
Top

Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100

Unread postby misterno » Tue 18 Mar 2008, 16:51:40

I am confused :(
User avatar
misterno
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 844
Joined: Wed 07 Mar 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Somewhere super boring

Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100

Unread postby Zythryn » Tue 18 Mar 2008, 18:18:29

Sorry if I was unclear. Let me try again.

When most people say 'oil will always be less than $100' it means the same as 'oil will never reach $100'

Now, since it is obvious that oil HAS indeed reached $100, you were asked if you were aware of this.
You replied that your statement didn't really mean that oil would not reach $100 except for a brief period of time.

I asked what constituted a long enough period of time for oil to be over $100 to make your statement incorrect. You responded a year.

The statement 'oil will never reach $100' and
'oil won't reach and then stay above $100 for a year or longer' don't really seem to have the same meaning, do they?
User avatar
Zythryn
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 24
Joined: Tue 11 Dec 2007, 04:00:00

Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100

Unread postby timmac » Wed 09 Apr 2008, 20:17:13

misterno wrote >> I am confused


Yea you really are, did you know that the barrel of oil is now $112.00 today, April 10-08, I think it might hit $120 very soon, what happen to it will stay under $100..
User avatar
timmac
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 1901
Joined: Thu 27 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Las Vegas

Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100

Unread postby Heineken » Wed 09 Apr 2008, 21:55:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'I') am confused :(


Give up and admit you're wrong. Then we can respect you.

Your position is idiotic, or worse.
"Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog

"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---I & my bro.
User avatar
Heineken
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7051
Joined: Tue 14 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Rural Virginia
Top

Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100

Unread postby hironegro » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 04:02:00

Where are you people getting speculating from? Yes some people are hedging against the dollar, but in no way is that speculating.
hironegro
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 419
Joined: Tue 08 Apr 2008, 03:00:00

Re: WHY OIL WILL ALWAYS BE LESS THEN $100

Unread postby timmac » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 23:26:29

$115.00 a barrel and climbing........
User avatar
timmac
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 1901
Joined: Thu 27 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Las Vegas

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests