$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'D')id someone get tomorrow's numbers already?
Do they know we have had a big drop in imports?
PeakOil is You
Re: Another Oil price Record
Re: Another Record ($122.35)
by Dan1195 » Tue 06 May 2008, 13:13:48
I doubt anyone making trades has access to the actual numbers. Just from looking at events in the past week one may get the idea that supplies may be lower.
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Re: Another Record ($119.22)
by Gandalf_the_White » Tue 06 May 2008, 13:14:17
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('idiom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat could result in a ``sharp correction in oil demand,'' the Goldman analysts said.
How high does it have to get before we find enough elasticity for a 'sharp correction'?
I would guess $135 would see a retracement that could fly back to $120. now that we have broken $120 as a psychological barrier and we have GS telling us $200 could happen this year I don't see what stops them from toying with $130 in the coming weeks. News of a weak start to the summer driving season could put a damper on things. But gas and oil are not the same thing, so demand could appear strong if gas prices rise slowly. Any good news for the economy now means oil is going up.
The facts seem to be that the market is only now waking up to the fact that supply will never again grow consistently as it did in the past and that it may infact start declining and never really stop (on average of course.)
Americans are going to be hit the hardest by this. Europeans are already paying $6 or more so they are insulated, just as the EU likes to do to it's domestic markets, they have been conditioned to avoid the crunch, plus the euro is becoming coin of the realm. The Chinese and Indians will pay any price, this leaves the good old US of A behind the 8-ball in the micro-economics of oil. I'm certain there will be some mitigating factors, but any storm tracking through the Gulf could give a ten percent rise in oil in a day depending on the other factors at that time.
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)
by canis_lupus » Tue 06 May 2008, 13:38:00
Gandalf
I agree
Here are two things:
1. I road tripped from Chicago to SW Wisconsin on Saturday to dig the garden in at the Lupus Compound. It's about 500 mile round trip or most of a tank of diesel in the 'Burb. If I hadn't made my own fuel, it would have cost around $171. It was jarring because that is real money to my family. I think the days of throwing $50 in the tank and spending the weekend out on the Mississippi may be fading.
It seemed to me that there were far fewer cars and trucks on the road than there should have been. I called Canis_Lupus_the_Younger who's business takes him to the east side of Wisconsin and he confirmed. My freak-out is PO, his freak out is the liquidity trap, which he accurately called two years ago. He and I are the life of the party when we get the families together, let me tell you.
2. I was going to get a poll together to see how high oil would jump in the first hour after the first tropical storm of the season was announced. I believe $5 easily, possibly even $10.
It's odd that after all the preparations I thought I'd done, now I find myself at the beginning of the end and I'm really unprepared.
I agree
Here are two things:
1. I road tripped from Chicago to SW Wisconsin on Saturday to dig the garden in at the Lupus Compound. It's about 500 mile round trip or most of a tank of diesel in the 'Burb. If I hadn't made my own fuel, it would have cost around $171. It was jarring because that is real money to my family. I think the days of throwing $50 in the tank and spending the weekend out on the Mississippi may be fading.
It seemed to me that there were far fewer cars and trucks on the road than there should have been. I called Canis_Lupus_the_Younger who's business takes him to the east side of Wisconsin and he confirmed. My freak-out is PO, his freak out is the liquidity trap, which he accurately called two years ago. He and I are the life of the party when we get the families together, let me tell you.
2. I was going to get a poll together to see how high oil would jump in the first hour after the first tropical storm of the season was announced. I believe $5 easily, possibly even $10.
It's odd that after all the preparations I thought I'd done, now I find myself at the beginning of the end and I'm really unprepared.
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)
by joeltrout » Tue 06 May 2008, 13:58:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('canis_lupus', ' ')which he accurately called two years ago.
If he called it and actually believed it... I hope he shorted the markets and became a multi-millionaire like the people who put their money where their mouth is.
On the otherhand I think record prices will continue in the long-term however I believe we will see many, many pullbacks in oil which might be great buying times to get into the market and actually profit off what WE believe (PeakOil).
joeltrout
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