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Re: Another Oil price Record

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby joeltrout » Tue 06 May 2008, 17:22:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zensui', '
')
I've about $300 of savings... I cann't "play in the speculative casino"; the most I may do is buy some gold national commemorative coins.


Well gold is 15% off its recent highs and not even close to historical highs. While oil is at an all time high. Right now oil seems to be less speculative especially long-term if you believe in peak oil. Oil is a real commodity, gold is not.

Peak oil will only drive prices higher in the future.

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Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby misterno » Tue 06 May 2008, 17:25:45

The price of oil in terms of gold is breaking records also.

I wonder if this has a meaning also.
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby chris-h » Tue 06 May 2008, 17:29:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', '.') Oil is a real commodity, gold is not.


joeltrout


wait until the war starts.

then we shall see if gold is a real commodity.
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby Officeguy » Tue 06 May 2008, 18:50:48

Hi,

If you are like me, you are checking the price of crude oil daily and watching in horror as it heads on up to $200. I normally check oil-price.net, and so I set up a thing called a google gadget which allows me to see this oil price graph on my iGoogle homepage.

It turns out it is quite popular with nearly 3000 users.
If you are interested, then you can add it from here:

link

and it looks like this:

Image

all the best,

Marty from New Zealand
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby Pholostan » Tue 06 May 2008, 19:18:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'T')he operative words here are" "has been." Non-US countries are not immune from future raises in price. :|


Of course not. I think gas and diesel will hit $10 per gallon in todays dollars in a year or two here. Heck $12 next summer wouldn't suprise me much. I don't think it will single handedly wreck the economy here though.
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby peak » Tue 06 May 2008, 21:19:42

Peak conventional oil is nothing, converting coal to liquid fuels has positive EROEI. We'll just convert our huge coal stockpile + oil sands from Canada.

Oil can go back to $70 a barrel
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby ColossalContrarian » Tue 06 May 2008, 21:26:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peak', 'P')eak conventional oil is nothing, converting coal to liquid fuels has positive EROEI. We'll just convert our huge coal stockpile + oil sands from Canada.

Oil can go back to $70 a barrel


We're saved, you're going to make a ton of money with that theory. $70 is peanuts compared to what we're paying now.

Is this underway now? When do you expect this to hit the mainstream? We're waiting for the price to drop, what's the hold up?
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby roccman » Tue 06 May 2008, 21:30:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peak', 'P')eak conventional oil is nothing, converting coal to liquid fuels has positive EROEI. We'll just convert our huge coal stockpile + oil sands from Canada.

Oil can go back to $70 a barrel


We're saved, you're going to make a ton of money with that theory. $70 is peanuts compared to what we're paying now.

Is this underway now? When do you expect this to hit the mainstream? We're waiting for the price to drop, what's the hold up?


right here
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby sjn » Tue 06 May 2008, 21:38:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peak', 'P')eak conventional oil is nothing, converting coal to liquid fuels has positive EROEI. We'll just convert our huge coal stockpile + oil sands from Canada.

Oil can go back to $70 a barrel

Wow! I never realised CTL produced FREE ENERGY! 8O
Converting one form of energy into another never has a positive energy return unless you suspend the laws of thermodynamics. What is pertinent with CTL (and tarsands) is whether there is a sufficient ERoEI surplus to allow for the additional processing into liquid fuels. As quality of feedstock declines as does the ERoEI, what now produces an energy surplus - may not for long. Neither CTL nor tarsands can in any way get oil back to $70 per barrel.
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby ColossalContrarian » Tue 06 May 2008, 21:51:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peak', 'P')eak conventional oil is nothing, converting coal to liquid fuels has positive EROEI. We'll just convert our huge coal stockpile + oil sands from Canada.

Oil can go back to $70 a barrel


We're saved, you're going to make a ton of money with that theory. $70 is peanuts compared to what we're paying now.

Is this underway now? When do you expect this to hit the mainstream? We're waiting for the price to drop, what's the hold up?


right here


The enviro’s seem to be up in arms over this and then there’s the Department of Defense being involved. I’d imagine this will be done to protect the nation regardless of the environmental effects. Unfortunately I’m not motivated enough to calculate how 20-30K bbl of “fuel” – it doesn’t specifically say oil… will amount to $70bbl oil as peak implies
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby Starvid » Tue 06 May 2008, 22:03:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peak', 'P')eak conventional oil is nothing, converting coal to liquid fuels has positive EROEI. We'll just convert our huge coal stockpile + oil sands from Canada.

Oil can go back to $70 a barrel

Wow! I never realised CTL produced FREE ENERGY! 8O
Converting one form of energy into another never has a positive energy return unless you suspend the laws of thermodynamics. What is pertinent with CTL (and tarsands) is whether there is a sufficient ERoEI surplus to allow for the additional processing into liquid fuels. As quality of feedstock declines as does the ERoEI, what now produces an energy surplus - may not for long. Neither CTL nor tarsands can in any way get oil back to $70 per barrel.
Liquid coal has a positive EROEI, just like solid coal has (even though the EROEI for liquids are lower than for solids as the conversion consumes energy). But for prices to go back down we would need an astronomic amount of CTL, at a time when both coal and steel prices have gone insane.

So good luck with CTL y'all. You're gonna need it.
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby Revi » Tue 06 May 2008, 22:14:35

It looks like the price of gold and the price of oil are decoupling. that means that the price of oil is finally going up due to supply problems, and not just fiat currencies tanking.

Is there a bubble forming? I read on 321 energy that there is supply of heavy crude, so we might even see the price of oil decline some in the next few months. Or maybe not...

http://www.321energy.com/reports/flynn/current.html
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby Gandalf_the_White » Tue 06 May 2008, 22:26:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I')t looks like the price of gold and the price of oil are decoupling. that means that the price of oil is finally going up due to supply problems, and not just fiat currencies tanking.

Is there a bubble forming? I read on 321 energy that there is supply of heavy crude, so we might even see the price of oil decline some in the next few months. Or maybe not...

http://www.321energy.com/reports/flynn/current.html


I wonder what the spatial range is for positive EROEI of CTL by all available technologies. For instance would it be worthwhile to ship coal to a plant by coal powered rail then get the CTL out to millions of auto users and still have engouh left to ship back to the mine to make sure the coal comes out of the ground as fast as we need it to? It starts to sound a little impractical. Right now though (I almost get sick of saying this) the last drops of LSC are subsidizing all these losing projects. Ethanol never had a leg to stand on when it came to EROEI, but someone was able to make money off of it. It shows some of the frailties of the marketplace. Caveat Emptor.
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby peak » Wed 07 May 2008, 02:37:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gandalf_the_White', '
')
I wonder what the spatial range is for positive EROEI of CTL by all available technologies. For instance would it be worthwhile to ship coal to a plant by coal powered rail then get the CTL out to millions of auto users and still have engouh left to ship back to the mine to make sure the coal comes out of the ground as fast as we need it to?


I heard that a gallon of gas can move a single freight (empty I don't know) about 300 miles.

If China can put up a coal powerplant a week then why can't we do the same? Even a 5% increase in coal mining YOY can offset peak conventional oil. China is increasing capacity much more than that.

If China can increase coal capacity much more than 10% a year, why can't we increase coal capacity 5% a year??

Somebody shown a picture of just how much energy 1 cubic mile of oil is, but that is almost world demand.

1 cubic mile of oil contains 26,217,075,000 barrels.
world consumption of oil per year is 30,660,000,000 barrels.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gandalf_the_White', '
') It starts to sound a little impractical. Right now though (I almost get sick of saying this) the last drops of LSC are subsidizing all these losing projects. Ethanol never had a leg to stand on when it came to EROEI, but someone was able to make money off of it. It shows some of the frailties of the marketplace. Caveat Emptor.


Coal to liquid should be about $70 a barrel,
Not a single pure play ethanol stock that I know made money.
I'm sure CTL is, 50% loss in conversion but it is still enough to make it viable.

Plus oil sands is already showing very profitable results especially when crude oil is trading at $122.
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby Gandalf_the_White » Wed 07 May 2008, 05:05:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peak', 'P')lus oil sands is already showing very profitable results especially when crude oil is trading at $122.


Are you talking about the stocks of the companies or the books they keep. My understanding is that tar sands are heavily subsidized in that conventional oil is used to power all of the equipment and basically get the finished to market. The EROEI on tar sands has to be very close to 1 if it is not less than 1.

Just wondering what you feel is the production cycle for tar sands. I mean if you use anything but the energy from tar sands to extract and process tar sands you are probably just diverting that from other useful endeavors. That's what I mean it looks profitable and may be for now because the economy is still relatively full of conventional oil.

$1000 per barrel isn't going to be enough if it takes two barrels to produce one. That kind of arithmetic goes beyond fuzzy math. We like to call it the mathematics of doom. Why? You would always have to have external energy inputs into production. The trade off just does not work economically and that will become apparent soon I think if it is not perfectly clear now. We all knew there was problems when we heard the n word tossed around. Nuke it out of the ground! That'll help produce a glowing future for Alberta.

I think you are preaching to the bloodhounds on tar sands here. Hopefully everyone will be as nice as I am being. Somebody will jump in here and remind we why I hate tar sands.

Edit: EROEI and other useful doom topics

Tar Sand estimate 1.5 EROEI. So that means we subsidize the first barrel and we get 1.5 back. So we could skim our .5 barrels and reinvest the 1 to get a closed cycle that pumps out about .5 barrels as fast as we can run the machines. However, we need scale so we have to ramp up to about 1 million barrels per day that requires either burning up a few million barrels a day of conventional to get about a three million barrel per day cushion or we have to take the log base 1.5 of 1 million to find tou how long we need to charge the reservoir. Of course the EROEI of 1.5 is a bit problematic since tar sands live way up in Alberta. So the production cycle, dirt to smiling soccer mom, has to be on average 1000 miles. 1/2 barrel of oil in the end produces how much gasoline? I'm certain that we all see that Tar Sands is a passing fancy or a local environmental nightmare or both. The people up at McMurray will never run out of gas, but they will run out of cancer free bodies to dig in the tar pits.

this shos you how far we have come. I barely had to look to find the incriminating evidence.

Tar Sands

So Tar Sands is a massively environmentally destructive and disruptive method for turning natural gas into gasoline? The fathers of the industrial revolution would be proud. To bad that natural gas is going to peak in the next twenty years as well. it alsmost sounded like a solution before I saw that flock of flaming geese refusing to return to Canada in the Springtime.
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby Fiddlerdave » Wed 07 May 2008, 05:38:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f China can put up a coal powerplant a week then why can't we do the same? Even a 5% increase in coal mining YOY can offset peak conventional oil. China is increasing capacity much more than that.
Because the sensible managers of a planned economy can look at obvious factors and make a reasoned decision.

The "free capitalist market" is able to work efficiencies on ongoing technlogies, but its a brainless 2 year-old that is easily manipulated by powerful cartels when it comes to changing directions. Look in the recent past. Even 5 years ago when everything that is happening now was clear to be inevitable and soon, oil companies and their pet politicans kept the message going that oil will "drop back to $30", then $50, then $70, then $90 Real Soon Now. And do a price feint to blow up any incipient startups in coal or alternative energies at each stage. The Market says "ooohh, baby burned" and loses interest, despite the constant rise in prices.

Now that we are in a credit squeeze and money is tougher to get for longer terms, oil has no fear of being soon replaced, especially with the world demand in full bloom. The phoney baloney oil company commercials about the teaspoon "efforts" for "alternate energy" from negative-energy-return tax subsidized corn ethanol or hydrogen pie in the sky still are the largest investment of all.
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby Gandalf_the_White » Wed 07 May 2008, 05:41:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fiddlerdave', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f China can put up a coal powerplant a week then why can't we do the same? Even a 5% increase in coal mining YOY can offset peak conventional oil. China is increasing capacity much more than that.
Because the sensible managers of a planned economy can look at obvious factors and make a reasoned decision.

The "free capitalist market" is able to work efficiencies on ongoing technlogies, but its a brainless 2 year-old that is easily manipulated by powerful cartels when it comes to changing directions. Look in the recent past. Even 5 years ago when everything that is happening now was clear to be inevitable and soon, oil companies and their pet politicans kept the message going that oil will "drop back to $30", then $50, then $70, then $90 Real Soon Now. And do a price feint to blow up any incipient startups in coal or alternative energies at each stage. The Market says "ooohh, baby burned" and loses interest, despite the constant rise in prices.

Now that we are in a credit squeeze and money is tougher to get for longer terms, oil has no fear of being soon replaced, especially with the world demand in full bloom. The phoney baloney oil company commercials about the teaspoon "efforts" for "alternate energy" from negative-energy-return tax subsidized corn ethanol or hydrogen pie in the sky still are the largest investment of all.


It almost sounds like you don't think they really want a solution? The whole thing is really dragging me down again. Now all the naysayers are jumping on the $200 bandwagon. I hope they get their $200 oil. I hope they do.
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby Gerben » Wed 07 May 2008, 12:04:49

The last price I heared was that it would be profitable at $ 80 a barrel. I think that was a in a study from 3 years ago. Since then the price for petrochemical installations has only gone up. It'd probably be profitable, but it's a risky investment. There's a lot of ppl who still claim that there is plenty of oil.
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby Jack » Wed 07 May 2008, 12:34:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gandalf_the_White', 'N')ow all the naysayers are jumping on the $200 bandwagon. I hope they get their $200 oil. I hope they do.


Really? While we're at it, can we get $15 corn and $30 wheat?

I have a very special gesture I've been saving up for the cornucopians. I do believe I'll get to use it soon.

8)
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Re: Another Record ($122.35)

Postby peak » Wed 07 May 2008, 12:59:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gandalf_the_White', '
')
Edit: EROEI and other useful doom topics

Tar Sand estimate 1.5 EROEI. So that means we subsidize the first barrel and we get 1.5 back. So we could skim our .5 barrels and reinvest the 1 to get a closed cycle that pumps out about .5 barrels as fast as we can run the machines. However, we need scale so we have to ramp up to about 1 million barrels per day that requires either burning up a few million barrels a day of conventional to get about a three million barrel per day cushion or we have to take the log base 1.5 of 1 million to find tou how long we need to charge the reservoir. Of course the EROEI of 1.5 is a bit problematic since tar sands live way up in Alberta. So the production cycle, dirt to smiling soccer mom, has to be on average 1000 miles. 1/2 barrel of oil in the end produces how much gasoline? I'm certain that we all see that Tar Sands is a passing fancy or a local environmental nightmare or both. The people up at McMurray will never run out of gas, but they will run out of cancer free bodies to dig in the tar pits.




http://www.suncor.com/default.aspx?ID=53

In 2007, 215 million cubic feet per day of natural gas was produced – enough to offset energy consumption at Suncor's oil sands and refining operations, while still providing a surplus of sales to the North American market.

Suncor pioneered the world’s first commercially successful oil sands operation in 1967 and reached a new milestone in 2006 with the production of our billionth barrel of oil. In 2007, production at the oil sands facility averaged 235,600 barrels per day.

Obviously Suncor doesn't use more than 100,000 barrels a day to extract the oil/tar sands.

And CTL has a positive EROEI, it has been proven throughout history. America has a 200yr coal stockpile. It means that these records are going to start ending when CTL plants come up.
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