[BrazilianPO]

The year of peak is not what worries me. What worries me is when the decline will pick up speed. If we keep on producing 85mbpd for the next 10 years, fine, we just have to conserve and apart from some pain, life will go on (no hordes of zombies).

But if production drops 2mbpd next year and every year thereafter, then we will have to change to conservation + starvation + social breakdown.

Talking about zombies, I just finished watching the movie "28 weeks later". Those hordes are not going to be a pretty sight.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BrazilianPO', 'T')he year of peak is not what worries me. What worries me is when the decline will pick up speed. If we keep on producing 85mbpd for the next 10 years, fine, we just have to conserve and apart from some pain, life will go on (no hordes of zombies).

But if production drops 2mbpd next year and every year thereafter, then we will have to change to conservation + starvation + social breakdown.

Talking about zombies, I just finished watching the movie "28 weeks later". Those hordes are not going to be a pretty sight.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '
')
"The major palpable difference between the four Ts is their respective gradient of oil output decline -- very small for T1, perceptible for T2, remarkable in T3, and rather steep for T4. In fact, this gradation in decline is a genuine blessing for those having to cope and adapt.

[catbox]

From the same news letter...Article called, "A Matter of Time"...the whole thing is good, but the last paragraph sticks out to me:

" Over all, the Oil Age can last about 250 years, which is a relatively short span of history. It ravaged the planet, changing the natural environment in many ways and causing a massive extinction of species. It may even have affected the climate, leading to rising sea-levels, as have occurred many times the geological past. Frankly, it is not entirely sure that good old Homo sapiens will make it. Unless he moves fast to plan and prepare for the changes. Will he be as wise as the name he gave himself implies?"

cb

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('catbox', 'F')rom the same news letter...Article called, "A Matter of Time"...the whole thing is good, but the last paragraph sticks out to me:

" Over all, the Oil Age can last about 250 years, which is a relatively short span of history. It ravaged the planet, changing the natural environment in many ways and causing a massive extinction of species. It may even have affected the climate, leading to rising sea-levels, as have occurred many times the geological past. Frankly, it is not entirely sure that good old Homo sapiens will make it. Unless he moves fast to plan and prepare for the changes. Will he be as wise as the name he gave himself implies?"

cb

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'A')nd it's in the rear-view mirror. The May ASPO Newsletter has moved the peak for all oil from 2010 to 2007.

The PDF version is incomplete, but it has the graphs and such.

[Dan1195]

Interesting they pushed the peak back despite the extra production from mega projects expected during the next two years.

[Starvid]

I'd like to add that, as we all know, the data is very bad. As a result of us getting better data, the peak year might keep jumping back and forth, just as it has done previously on regular occasions.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'I')'d like to add that, as we all know, the data is very bad. As a result of us getting better data, the peak year might keep jumping back and forth, just as it has done previously on regular occasions.

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dan1195', 'I')nteresting they pushed the peak back despite the extra production from mega projects expected during the next two years.

[smiley]

Another way of looking at it is that if those megaprojects do not come on-line on time, we'll be facing a substantial decline in the next few years. My experience insofar with these projects is that they are about as dependable as the Italian railway system.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'T')he mega projects are mostly in areas that are hard to produce (which is why they weren't brought online earlier).

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')lso. Actually 2007 and 2006 were basically equal - not just Bakken, but slight increases in places like Kansas and Utah. High prices are making old wells profitable again, perhaps. Perhaps not of great importance globally but for Yanks it may prove significant

[TheDude]

Katrina affected Utah? Yeah, you're right, most of the rebound was in PADD III. Thing is, Texas onshore has exceeded 2004 production. 10 kbpd over 2006. You see this all over the EIA data, it makes me wonder what the story is.

Alaska on the other hand is really taking it on the chin - down about 55 kbpd for 2006.

[Nike62]

According to my calculator, the totals are:

2007 = 83,7
2010 = 84,3

[smiley]

what calculator

and what is it calculating?

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', ' ')KSA is a hard area to produce in?

[Starvid]

The Persian Gulf is not a hard place to work offshore. It's calm and balmy, no storms and it's shallow.

Compare that to the North Sea...

[dorlomin]

Am I quibilling if I say it looks like thay have amended there models rather than explicitly called the peak?

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')he Persian Gulf is not a hard place to work offshore. It's calm and balmy, no storms and it's shallow.

Compare that to the North Sea...