[TheDude]

They're building a 41 km long causeway for Manifa, too. Nasty oil in that field - vanadium and H[sub]2[/sub]S aplenty.

[shortonoil]

My biggest complaint with ASPO is that they tend to ignore some of the more drastic effects that oil’s falling energy contribution will have on world economies. Smaller energy supply means less economic activity, which in a world buried in debt, which it will no longer be able to service = TRAIN WRECK!

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')he Persian Gulf is not a hard place to work offshore. It's calm and balmy, no storms and it's shallow. Compare that to the North Sea...

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'M')y biggest complaint with ASPO is that they tend to ignore some of the more drastic effects that oil’s falling energy contribution will have on world economies. Smaller energy supply means less economic activity, which in a world buried in debt, which it will no longer be able to service = TRAIN WRECK!

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'D')ubai is supposedly very nice, and so is that Iranian(!) free zone island resort Kish.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'D')ubai is supposedly very nice, and so is that Iranian(!) free zone island resort Kish.

[leal]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'I')'d like to add that, as we all know, the data is very bad. As a result of us getting better data, the peak year might keep jumping back and forth, just as it has done previously on regular occasions.

[Starvid]

I think the best way to say when we will peak is "now or soon". When we talk about infrastructure timescales, which this is all about, 10 years is soon. And I doubt very much it will take more than 10 more years to reach the peak.

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'E')very time I've spoken to the ASPO chairman about these kinds of things he very strongly says that he is not an economist and not better than anyone else at predicting those things. ASPO deals with oil and gas and leaves economics to those who are better at that.

[Starvid]

There are no economists in ASPO. They are physicist and geologists et cetera. They can only speculate about the economic impacts of peak oil, and they aren't more qualified than you or me when doing that. So if they talk about the economy they aren't really contributing any added-value.

If you wonder about the economic impacts of peak oil I'd advise you to ask Paul Krugman or Ferdinand Banks, two eminent American economists.

[gampy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')here are no economists in ASPO. They are physicist and geologists et cetera. They can only speculate about the economic impacts of peak oil, and they aren't more qualified than you or me when doing that. So if they talk about the economy they aren't really contributing any added-value. If you wonder about the economic impacts of peak oil I'd advise you to ask Paul Krugman or Ferdinand Banks, two eminent American economists.

[Starvid]

Well, I recomend reading Fred Banks. Or mailing him.

http://www.energypulse.net/centers/author.cfm?at_id=665

[Schadenfreude]

[web]http://www.inf.ethz.ch/~fcellier/Pubs/World/tod_09.png[/web]
Report on First General Assembly of ASPO Switzerland, May 24th 2008, University of Basel
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TOD', 'A')SPO Switzerland was founded 1.5 years ago by Daniele Ganser, a young professor of contemporary history at the University of Basel. His primary research interests concern the politics of peace, and it was in this context that he began to study the political and sociological implications of Peak Oil: How can humanity transition from a paradigm of continuous expansion and exponential growth to one of sustainable development and stagnation while avoiding violent resource wars as they are likely to erupt over control of the last remaining oil fields?

[Schadenfreude]

Time to do something about oil
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Asia Times', ' ')The oil price rise of more than US$50 per barrel since the US Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates in September is beginning to get serious. Since the rise of oil import prices alone removes $170 billion from the US economy, more than 1% of gross domestic product, it is both inflationary and highly recession-producing, especially since it has been accompanied by similar rises in other commodity prices. Its full effects have not been seen yet but they're coming - don't worry! At some point we are probably going to have to do something about it. The question is: what?

[roccman]

Link

Very well done primer on home page.

[GeoJAP]

I'd love to hear the presentations and see from where the audience members are derived.

[peaknik]

Here it is: http://aspo-spain.org/aspo7/home.php?idioma=en

October 20th & 21st, in Barcelona, Spain.

Check the dossier too!

Best regards

ASPO Spain

[kevincarter]

DOOM Even the optimistics are making scary statements.

A quote from the meeting:
The way to solve technical problems until now has always been to pour more oil into the problem.

The French Jean Laherrere and Jean Luc Wingert made and awesome conference on how the economic crisis can affect P.O.. According to them well see a bump, first production will go down and some actions *may* be taken, but then production will go up again one last time and all actions will be stopped, after that 2 or 3 years increase its down for ever.

Also a guy from the stock market gave a interesting speech on speculation and how it all works on the speculation market. His advice if you want to invest in the market was: don't gather too much information, just act like a monkey.

Charles A.S Hall gave an interesting speech on economy too.

I'm forgetting some other speaches, but most of all were really interesting

I talked to some of the speakers and when I asked them what to do to prepare all of them said words like food gardens and bicycles and getting out of large cities, no one believes this is gonna keep going for long, no one. So really, after listening to all the experts and smart people my motivation to move towards a sustainable life has gone up to the sky, I see no other option, staying here and doing the job-car-mortgage-college for my kids thing its just not gonna happen.

I'll try to write more latter

Some humor from the meeting:

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he way to solve technical problems until now has always been to pour more oil into the problem.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he way to solve technical problems until now has always been to pour more oil into the problem.