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THE ASPO Thread Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Did anybody get tazed at the ASPO conference?

Unread postby Graeme » Sat 22 Sep 2007, 07:05:57

Perhaps Matt had every reason to fear being tased. It happed to Andrew Meyer recently. He is a journalism student at the University of Florida. You can read about it here. He was holding a book called "Armed Madhouse" written by Greg Palast. There's more information about the book at this link which may be of interest to some in this forum. I'm not promoting Greg's book but freedom of speech. Judge for yourself.
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Re: Did anybody get tazed at the ASPO conference?

Unread postby julianj » Sat 22 Sep 2007, 09:19:16

Graeme, he said gently, I think that was the whole point of Matt's joke.
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Re: Did anybody get tazed at the ASPO conference?

Unread postby skiwi » Sat 22 Sep 2007, 09:25:40

You're so fucking slow sometimes you must be from the North Island NOT New Zealand so butt out of the joke :roll:
I think we've covered most bases here Graeme http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic32255.html
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Re: Did anybody get tazed at the ASPO conference?

Unread postby Graeme » Sat 22 Sep 2007, 21:49:52

If you read my message, it's about freedom of speech, and Greg Palast's book and other news at his web site, which is not mentioned in the link you gave. If you care to have a look further at his site, you'll see what I mean. The tasing at UF was a link to Palast's stories.
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Re: Did anybody get tazed at the ASPO conference?

Unread postby Graeme » Sun 23 Sep 2007, 04:23:14

And just to add further weight to my assertion that tasers are no joke, take a look at these statistics!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')edesigned to use nitrogen propellant rather than gunpowder, the device is no longer considered a firearm and is now available for purchase by the general public in 43 states, with some restrictions. Tasers are now used by 11,500 law enforcement, correctional and military agencies in 44 countries, and 160,000 of the devices have been sold to private citizens since 1994.


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Re: Did anybody get tazed at the ASPO conference?

Unread postby Cabrone » Sun 23 Sep 2007, 15:56:35

Tazers? They're so yesterday........

Now this is what you want:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/technology/technology.html?in_article_id=482560&in_page_id=1965&in_page_id=1965&expand=true#StartComments

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ASPO-USA 2007 update

Unread postby Petrodollar » Mon 22 Oct 2007, 16:54:15

For those who may not get the ASPO-USA newsletter, here's a quick summary of last week's conference in Houston, and a few quotes:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]ASPO-USA Houston Conference

Over 525 people attended this year’s conference, a record for what was already the world’s largest annual conference on peak oil. Some 60 speakers addressed attendees who came from 18 countries and 35 US states. Attendees included an even mix of corporate senior-level management, academic / NGO, students, and general public.

Over 25 members of the accredited press attended including Marshall Adkins (Raymond James Associates) helped start the event by sharing his view that world oil production would probably peak within five years. Tom Petrie (Merrill Lynch - Petrie) stressed that limited access to oil controlled by foreign governments point to the looming reality of “practical peak oil.” Aage Figenschou (Norway; oil shipping industry) noted that over the last four years, the French petroleum institute has been shifting their in-house view of the timing of peak oil from 2020 to 2015 and now “in the direction of 2010.” Matt Simmons (Simmons & Co., Intl), Stuart Staniford (The Oil Drum) and Euan Means (also TOD) expressed varying degrees of skepticism about the ability of Saudi Arabia to meet stated production goals; industry analysts Charles Maxwell and Henry Groppe were modestly more optimistic.

John Darnell (office of U.S. Congressman Roscoe Bartlett) warned that “a teachable moment [about peak oil] may be coming,” and that attendees should ask their elected representatives what contingency plans are in place for responding to it. Author Peter Tertzakian (ARC Financial) asked if peak oil “is an issue of technological engineering or social engineering.”

Houston Mayor Bill White referred to oil production as “a race between technology and depletion,” but focused his remarks on public and private sector responses to the peak oil problem. Financial planner James Hansen urged attendees to “get timing out of your heads” and focus on smart responses. Oil and gas database expert Richard Nehring stressed that “rather than looking at [peak oil] as a problem of inadequate supply, we should look at this as a problem of too much consumption.”

PowerPoint presentations for most conference presenters are being posted on ASPO-USA’s website. Sets of DVDs will be available within 6 weeks.


http://www.aspo-usa.com/

...BTW, other than the Bloomberg News story from Friday, has anyone read any detailed reports in the media regarding this conference? Seems the major media was there: AP, New York Times, Bloomberg News, the Houston Chronicle, World Oil magazine, the Oil & Gas Journal, and many others.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Q')uotes of the Week (from T. Boone Pickens, at the ASPO-USA conference)

•“I think you’ll reach $100 [a barrel] before you go back to $80. It could happen in the 4th quarter, but you’ll see it within a year.”

•When will we hit peak production? “That’s an easy one. We have already peaked; 85 million barrels is as high as we’re going to go.”

•”As this unfolds, you're going to have to find alternatives that are going to do the job that oil is doing. Everyone is going to have to come to grips with this in the next two or three years. People are going to have to figure it out.''
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Re: ASPO-USA 2007 update

Unread postby Leanan » Mon 22 Oct 2007, 17:02:15

Platts had a report (which I posted to the front page this morning). A lot of other oil news services did, too, but they were subscription-only.

Kunstler had a detailed report in his blog.
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Re: Did anybody get tazed at the ASPO conference?

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 26 Nov 2007, 22:53:38

Tasers a form of torture - UN report

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') lawyer leading the charge against police adopting Taser stun guns is welcoming a United Nations report that describes the 50,000-volt stun guns as a "form of torture".


Just weeks before police decide whether to adopt Tasers as a crime-fighting tool, the report has condemned their use.

The UN Committee Against Torture said it was worried by the use of Tasers in Portugal. It says the stun guns cause "extreme pain, constituted a form of torture, and ... in certain cases could also cause death".

Lawyer Marie Dyhrberg, from the Campaign Against The Taser group, said the UN committee's findings should be taken seriously by the police. "They have no agenda, and they have access to very reliable information."


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Re: Did anybody get tazed at the ASPO conference?

Unread postby kadoomsoon » Mon 26 Nov 2007, 23:30:22

The stun gun is just a legal torture device.
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Re: Did anybody get tazed at the ASPO conference?

Unread postby kadoomsoon » Mon 26 Nov 2007, 23:56:41

Always know your rights.
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Re: Did anybody get tazed at the ASPO conference?

Unread postby kadoomsoon » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 00:27:15

Microwaves are cruel and unusual punishment.
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Re: Did anybody get tazed at the ASPO conference?

Unread postby kadoomsoon » Tue 27 Nov 2007, 03:20:51

Metal tooth fillings and microwave beam weapons do not get along well.
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Colin Campbell Depletion Model (ASPO Ireland)

Unread postby FreddyH » Mon 04 Feb 2008, 21:17:08

Colin Campbell has released his first version of 2008. He has made a 23-Gb adjustment to past consumption. Rather than it being 1102 +31 = 1133 as expected, the total to end 2007 is 1155-Gb.

Peak Date is accelerated to 2010 & Peak Rate for All Liquids is increased to 97-mbd. His URR estimate remains 2600-Gb (2.5-Tb to 2100AD).
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Chart highlights (adjusted for All Liquids) Campbell 2008, 2007 & 1989 plus Hubbert's Conv + NGL forecasts of 1956/74. Axis is not zero scaled.
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Re: Colin Campbell Depletion Model (ASPO Ireland)

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Mon 04 Feb 2008, 22:18:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', 'C')olin Campbell has released his first version of 2008.


So now he messes up his predictions so badly he has to revise them more than once a year?

How often does he compare his original 1989 estimate to what actually happened, and then make corrections for how terrible his method is?
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Re: Colin Campbell Depletion Model (ASPO Ireland)

Unread postby FreddyH » Mon 04 Feb 2008, 22:52:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', 'C')olin Campbell has released his first version of 2008.


So now he messes up his predictions so badly he has to revise them more than once a year?

How often does he compare his original 1989 estimate to what actually happened, and then make corrections for how terrible his method is?


There are about four categories of models. Bottom-up, Demand inspired, a mix of both of those & the mathematicals (gaussian. logistics, etc).

An inherent methodology problem with bottom-up is that it only looks at announced projects. As the years go by and more capacity is reported, the upward revisions commence. One should think of bottom-up as "worst case scenario". After a while, u can see a pattern to the revisions ... which is intuitive in itself.

The hybrid to B-U would be to estimate post 5-year out capacity activity. Then the exercise becomes more art than science. In 2004, Skrebowski was in a panic 'cuz he could not see any Megaprojects past 2008. He called a Peak. Then with strengthened Demand and a higher pricing regimen, we saw the sector come thru with record capacity builds for 2008/2009 totalling 14-mbd.

Presently there is an apparent drought for 2013/2014. Does that mean Peak is within reach? Or will industry again apply awesome financial resources? A sub text to the current episode is the rising underlying decline rate.

It appears 6-mbd/yr of new capacity will stave off Supply Decline. But it is clearly uncharted territory as to where the UDR will find equilibrium. My estimate is at the R/P 10 level (6.2%).
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ASPO calls the peak

Unread postby Leanan » Sun 04 May 2008, 09:11:04

And it's in the rear-view mirror. The May ASPO Newsletter has moved the peak for all oil from 2010 to 2007.

The PDF version is incomplete, but it has the graphs and such.
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Re: ASPO calls the peak

Unread postby roccman » Sun 04 May 2008, 10:37:15

Guess Hubbert is 2 for 2.

And to think just 5 years ago some believed corn was gonna save us.

Nope.

And now McCain says he has a "plan" to reduce our dependency on imported oil.

Yeah right.

The plan is 500 MPH into a brick wall. Those that can still get up will be chucked into a slave camp.

Enjoy the die off!!
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Re: ASPO calls the peak

Unread postby FrankRichards » Sun 04 May 2008, 10:46:21

Is it me, or is this issue much less information intensive than normal. Calling the peak is of course a spectacular deal, but even that was done with less than their usual level of detail.

Everything else seems to be an MSM-level summary of some other publication.
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Re: ASPO calls the peak

Unread postby dinopello » Sun 04 May 2008, 10:55:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he new deepwater model has the effect of advancing the date of the overall peak of all liquids from 2010 to 2007, and is actually good news insofar as the lower and sooner the peak, the gentler the subsequent decline. The precise date is of no particular significance since it is not a high isolated peak, being no more than the maximum of a fairly gentle curve. But if correct, it might carry a certain psychological impact to recognise that the Second Half of the Oil Age has begun.
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