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Russian secondary peak approaches?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Russia hits PEAK OIL - official!

Unread postby FreakOil » Wed 16 Apr 2008, 12:48:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
Geological peaks are so darn rare...


Which, if true, is even more disturbing. It would seem to demonstrate that things start to fall apart (politically) even before you reach the geological peak or so soon after that we cannot know if the peak was geological?


I'm beginning to question the logic of a geologic peak. People talk about it as if humans don't influence the production curve. We do, and usually not in a good way. Politics and business usually push peak forward.

Take a look at the North Sea fields. Those production curves are very steep because the oil companies used horizontal drilling to maximize output quickly and get a return on their investment. The same could be said of Ghawar. It was pushed too hard to enrich the Western operators in the 1970s and again and again later for political reasons.

It's the same story with Western Siberia. They began waterflooding during primary production, rather than managing the fields for slow steady output. Now with so many major fields in decline, any new discoveries will also be pushed to the hilt to maintain steady global supplies.

The Export Land Model is just another example of how humans determine peak.
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Re: Russia hits PEAK OIL - official!

Unread postby Gandalf_the_White » Wed 16 Apr 2008, 13:17:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreakOil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
Geological peaks are so darn rare...


Which, if true, is even more disturbing. It would seem to demonstrate that things start to fall apart (politically) even before you reach the geological peak or so soon after that we cannot know if the peak was geological?


I'm beginning to question the logic of a geologic peak. People talk about it as if humans don't influence the production curve. We do, and usually not in a good way. Politics and business usually push peak forward.

Take a look at the North Sea fields. Those production curves are very steep because the oil companies used horizontal drilling to maximize output quickly and get a return on their investment. The same could be said of Ghawar. It was pushed too hard to enrich the Western operators in the 1970s and again and again later for political reasons.

It's the same story with Western Siberia. They began waterflooding during primary production, rather than managing the fields for slow steady output. Now with so many major fields in decline, any new discoveries will also be pushed to the hilt to maintain steady global supplies.

The Export Land Model is just another example of how humans determine peak.


Are you really in Hong Kong? Your post shows a level of understanding (and english competency) that we have rarely seen from over there. Pretty right on IMO.
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
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Re: Russia hits PEAK OIL - official!

Unread postby FreakOil » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 02:28:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gandalf_the_White', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreakOil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
Geological peaks are so darn rare...


Which, if true, is even more disturbing. It would seem to demonstrate that things start to fall apart (politically) even before you reach the geological peak or so soon after that we cannot know if the peak was geological?


I'm beginning to question the logic of a geologic peak. People talk about it as if humans don't influence the production curve. We do, and usually not in a good way. Politics and business usually push peak forward.

Take a look at the North Sea fields. Those production curves are very steep because the oil companies used horizontal drilling to maximize output quickly and get a return on their investment. The same could be said of Ghawar. It was pushed too hard to enrich the Western operators in the 1970s and again and again later for political reasons.

It's the same story with Western Siberia. They began waterflooding during primary production, rather than managing the fields for slow steady output. Now with so many major fields in decline, any new discoveries will also be pushed to the hilt to maintain steady global supplies.

The Export Land Model is just another example of how humans determine peak.


Are you really in Hong Kong? Your post shows a level of understanding (and english competency) that we have rarely seen from over there. Pretty right on IMO.


I'm an American living in Hong Kong. Thanks for the compliment, though it isn't much of a compliment since I'm American. :wink:
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Re: Russia hits PEAK OIL - official!

Unread postby Gandalf_the_White » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 02:40:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreakOil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gandalf_the_White', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreakOil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
Geological peaks are so darn rare...


Which, if true, is even more disturbing. It would seem to demonstrate that things start to fall apart (politically) even before you reach the geological peak or so soon after that we cannot know if the peak was geological?


I'm beginning to question the logic of a geologic peak. People talk about it as if humans don't influence the production curve. We do, and usually not in a good way. Politics and business usually push peak forward.

Take a look at the North Sea fields. Those production curves are very steep because the oil companies used horizontal drilling to maximize output quickly and get a return on their investment. The same could be said of Ghawar. It was pushed too hard to enrich the Western operators in the 1970s and again and again later for political reasons.

It's the same story with Western Siberia. They began waterflooding during primary production, rather than managing the fields for slow steady output. Now with so many major fields in decline, any new discoveries will also be pushed to the hilt to maintain steady global supplies.

The Export Land Model is just another example of how humans determine peak.


Are you really in Hong Kong? Your post shows a level of understanding (and english competency) that we have rarely seen from over there. Pretty right on IMO.


I'm an American living in Hong Kong. Thanks for the compliment, though it isn't much of a compliment since I'm American. :wink:

Still a compliment.
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Re: Past Peak? - Russia's Oil Ouput to Slump in 2008

Unread postby shakespear1 » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 04:09:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'I'm beginning to question the logic of a geologic peak. People talk about it as if humans don't influence the production curve. We do, and usually not in a good way. Politics and business usually push peak forward.

Take a look at the North Sea fields. Those production curves are very steep because the oil companies used horizontal drilling to maximize output quickly and get a return on their investment. The same could be said of Ghawar. It was pushed too hard to enrich the Western operators in the 1970s and again and again later for political reasons.
')

The driver behind this was profit motive. The oil company got the oil out of the ground faster and had the money in its hands TODAY rather than 4-5 yrs down the road. In shaky countries this was a necessary way of doing business. Tomorrow a different junta could be in power. Short Term is safer was and is the mantra !!!
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Re: Past Peak? - Russia's Oil Ouput to Slump in 2008

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 17:24:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'H')adn't heard about Sakhalin doing a nosedive. When was that announced?


April 8, 2008, and it's a 28% decline expected.

Frankly, I had not seen this mentioned in our PO discussions before last week, so it's startling to me.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')pril 10, 2008

Interfax Oil & Gas Report for 03 - 09 Apr 08
"INTERFAX Oil, Gas & Coal Report" -- Interfax Round-up
Gas compressor capacity would stabilize Sakhalin-1 production - Rosneft

ST. PETERSBURG. (Interfax) - Oil production under the Sakhalin-1 project can be stabilized by adding new gas compressor capacity, Mikhail Stavsky, a vice president at project participant Rosneft, told journalists on April 8.

Sakhalin-1 oil production peaked in 2007 at 12 million tonnes and has begun to fall off sharply. It is expected to decline 28% to 7.9 million-8.2 million tonnes this year.

Increasing gas compressor capacity is one option for stabilizing production, Stavsky said. "If we are able to utilize more gas, that will increase oil production," he said.

But he noted that the project has not ordered new gas compressor capacity, and acknowledged that due to the "significant gas component," oil production from a number of Sakhalin-1 wells has been halted, and a portion of the wells have been mothballed.

Meanwhile, Sakhalin region's environmental protection committee has reported that oil production in the region amounted to 3.126 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2008, down 2.5% from the 3.2 million tonnes produced in the same period last year,.

Production of gas rose to 2.372 billion cubic meters (bcm), more than 80% higher than the 1.3 bcm produced a year earlier.

"The Sakhalin-1 project produced almost 2.7 million tonnes of oil, about the same as a year earlier, and 2.160 bcm of gas, up from 1.5 bcm," a committee official told Interfax, adding that most of the gas extracted by Sakhalin-1 is pumped back into the reservoir, since the utilization issue remains unresolved.

RN-Sakhalinmorneftegaz produced 412,000 tonnes of oil in the quarter (10% less year-on-year) and 0.180 bcm of gas (25% less). Its production volumes have declined as the company's onshore fields, which have been under development for many years, become depleted.


PS: Thanks all for the insightful comments above on this issue.
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Re: Past Peak? - Russia's Oil Ouput to Slump in 2008

Unread postby cube » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 20:31:37

Russia produces as much oil as Saudi Arabia....or did.

Once you add up the decline rates of all the other nations that have already hit PO, now add Russia to the mix, no oil rich nation on this planet can compensate for such a huge amount of losses. Not even Saudi Arabia.

translation: The world has hit PO
And yes I'm talking about a geological peak here. :roll:
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Re: Past Peak? - Russia's Oil Ouput to Slump in 2008

Unread postby seahorse2 » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 20:59:14

Dont' worry about the Russian production declines, or the Cantarell, or the North Sea, US production for the Bakken is expected to produce at least 100kbpd in another five years and, in another 5-6 years, we may see Brazil start pumping out some oil out of their new big finds.
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Fears emerge over Russia’s oil output

Unread postby cudabachi » Mon 21 Apr 2008, 01:41:35

Russian oil production has peaked and may never return to current levels, one of the country’s top energy executives has warned, fuelling concerns that the world’s biggest oil producers cannot keep up with rampant Asian demand.

The warning helped on Tuesday to push crude oil prices to a fresh all-time high above $112 a barrel, threatening to stoke inflation in many countries.

Leonid Fedun, the 52-year-old vice-president of Lukoil, Russia’s largest independent oil company, told the Financial Times he believed last year’s Russian oil production of about 10m barrels a day was the highest he would see “in his lifetime”. Russia is the world’s second biggest oil producer.

Mr Fedun compared Russia with the North Sea and Mexico, where oil production is declining dramatically, saying that in the oil-rich region of western Siberia, the mainstay of Russian output, “the period of intense oil production [growth] is over”.

The Russian government has so far admitted that production growth has stagnated, but has shied away from admitting that post-Soviet output has peaked.link
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Re: Fears emerge over Russia’s oil output

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 21 Apr 2008, 01:55:01

This must be about the 3rd or 4th thread on this.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Past Peak? - Russia's Oil Ouput to Slump in 2008

Unread postby Ivan_M » Mon 21 Apr 2008, 02:23:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', 'D')ont' worry about the Russian production declines, or the Cantarell, or the North Sea, US production for the Bakken is expected to produce at least 100kbpd in another five years and, in another 5-6 years, we may see Brazil start pumping out some oil out of their new big finds.


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Re: Fears emerge over Russia’s oil output

Unread postby americandream » Mon 21 Apr 2008, 03:31:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')his must be about the 3rd or 4th thread on this.


So?
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Re: Fears emerge over Russia’s oil output

Unread postby Sys1 » Mon 21 Apr 2008, 03:39:46

So we have the second oil producer in the world about to produce far less in the coming years...

It won't be a soft landing. It will be a hard crash.
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Re: Fears emerge over Russia’s oil output

Unread postby cudabachi » Mon 21 Apr 2008, 11:04:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')his must be about the 3rd or 4th thread on this.


Sorry if it's a repeat. I did scan the threads in this forum and didn't see it.

I did think it was newsworthy.
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Re: Fears emerge over Russia’s oil output

Unread postby jdmartin » Mon 21 Apr 2008, 13:32:51

Man, that's some freaky stuff there. So much for Non-Opec sources...
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Re: Fears emerge over Russia’s oil output

Unread postby cube » Mon 21 Apr 2008, 15:31:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'S')o we have the second oil producer in the world about to produce far less in the coming years...

It won't be a soft landing. It will be a hard crash.
I've noticed that this website used to have a couple very active members posting counter-arguments:
Lorenzo --> biofuels
the_toecutter --> EV cars
LoneSnark --> supporter of infinite economic growth
JohnDenver --> promoter of efficiency

I guess everybody must of converted to PO doomsayers like the rest of us because I haven't heard a peep from those folks in ages. :wink:
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Re: Fears emerge over Russia’s oil output

Unread postby roccman » Mon 21 Apr 2008, 15:46:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'S')o we have the second oil producer in the world about to produce far less in the coming years...

It won't be a soft landing. It will be a hard crash.


a bone crushing thud...500mph into a brick wall!!
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Re: Fears emerge over Russia’s oil output

Unread postby Sys1 » Mon 21 Apr 2008, 16:28:48

Cube : The first time I saw this site, i created a thread where I spoke about Tar sands in Alberta, arguing about the fact there's so much oil down there... I thought reserves instead of debit.

I became a doomer as soon as i got peak oil was about debit.
I became an apocalypse doomer when I understood pesticides are made from oil and fertilizer from natural gaz.
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Re: Fears emerge over Russia’s oil output

Unread postby cube » Mon 21 Apr 2008, 19:26:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'C')ube : The first time I saw this site, i created a thread where I spoke about Tar sands in Alberta, arguing about the fact there's so much oil down there... I thought reserves instead of debit.
When I first came onto this site I was convinced that Starbucks could survive in a world of high energy prices. The argument was simple enough:
MOST of the cost that goes into making a cup of Starbucks coffee is NOT energy but instead other things like employee wages, the storefront lease, interior designing, etc... To give you an idea of where the money goes lets compare an independent shop vs. a national franchise. BTW Starbucks is technically NOT a franchise but stick with me on this. A mom and pop independent restaurant might cost $100,000 or less. However it has that "independent" look if you know what I mean. A franchised restaurant on the other hand costs from $250,000 to $1 million. Looking at these numbers I told myself, hell what does energy have to do with anything?

I've changed my mind. I think Starbucks will declare bankruptcy and will NOT survive this recession. When times get tough the first thing people cut back on is the "unnecessary" things in life. If there was such a thing as a top 10 list of unnecessary things in life Starbucks coffee would be on there somewhere right next to SUV's, personal yachts, and vacation timeshares. :roll:
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Re: Fears emerge over Russia’s oil output

Unread postby Homesteader » Mon 21 Apr 2008, 22:03:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'S')o we have the second oil producer in the world about to produce far less in the coming years...

It won't be a soft landing. It will be a hard crash.
I've noticed that this website used to have a couple very active members posting counter-arguments:
Lorenzo --> biofuels
the_toecutter --> EV cars
LoneSnark --> supporter of infinite economic growth
JohnDenver --> promoter of efficiency

I guess everybody must of converted to PO doomsayers like the rest of us because I haven't heard a peep from those folks in ages. :wink:


Huh, now that you mention it.
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