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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE 401k Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby joeltrout » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 18:05:49

I didn't qualify for my company's 401k till Jan 2007. So I didn't have the big run-up that many people did because of the bull markets prior to this correction. Yes correction.

Therefore I haven't lost much and thankfully I pulled much of my 401k out of stocks and put into the money market before last October. Don't know why... I just felt like the economy was getting scary. Lucky guess.

My allocation now is:
65% in S&P 500 fund
25% in International fund
10% in money market fund drawing 5.25% until Jan 2009

I know most will disagree... but I think this is a great time to be putting money in the market.

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Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby joeltrout » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 18:18:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')Just a "correction" I am sure...


Even though they have been taking loses the last 8 months...it would be nice to know how much their money has increased since they began contributing to their 401k.

I am sure they still have more money then they started with. If they have been contributing for a while they still might have 25% returns. Its just not the 55% return they had 8 months ago.

The problem most people have is they let their money sit in their 401k and never move it around. When your fund is up 40% in a few years it is time to take a little out and put it somewhere else. But most people keep it the same and then "act" shocked when they take losses like we are seeing.

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Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby Heineken » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 22:42:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', 'I') didn't qualify for my company's 401k till Jan 2007. So I didn't have the big run-up that many people did because of the bull markets prior to this correction. Yes correction.

Therefore I haven't lost much and thankfully I pulled much of my 401k out of stocks and put into the money market before last October. Don't know why... I just felt like the economy was getting scary. Lucky guess.

My allocation now is:
65% in S&P 500 fund
25% in International fund
10% in money market fund drawing 5.25% until Jan 2009

I know most will disagree... but I think this is a great time to be putting money in the market.

joeltrout


For more reasons than I can name, I think it is absolutely crazy to have any money in the stock market. I say this as someone with extensive past experience with the stock market.

We are in uncharted territory now, and favorable past patterns are almost certain not to be repeated.

Consider putting all of it in the money market.
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Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby Tyler_JC » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 23:57:39

You know the old adage, "buy when there's blood in the streets".

The markets will eventually recover from the current downturn so assuming your horizon is long term enough, now could be a good time to buy.

Personally, I'm waiting till later this year (August/September) for the bottom but I think it's within reach.

I have a bond coming up in August and there's no way I'll be able to find an interest rate anywhere close to what that bond was paying.

I'm considering plowing that money into a mutual fund. I'm young and I can afford to look at the long term.

But if you're reaching retirement age, it makes sense to keep your investments more conservative in this time of uncertainty.
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Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby SchroedingersCat » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 00:58:15

Mine is up about 37% over the last 3 years. Year to date this year is about 3%. I'm still happy because it's outperforming the stockmarket by about 15%.

Of course, my PMs have a much better return.
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Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby sicophiliac » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 02:12:58

I am down a little over 4% this year, however its the money my employer contributed and none of it was mine. I am seriously considering cashing it out (around 3 grand) paying my penalties and buying some gold. Or hell maybe an HDTV or put the money into my car lol. Why not enjoy it while i still can right? Aside from my 401k I have some stocks of my own, my oil service sector stocks are both up 10-15% since I bought them last summer so I guess I'm not doing to bad (aside from dollar devaluation) My biodiesel stock has gotten hammered and is down hard though, but its a speculative buy that I am in for the long haul on, given diesel is over 4 bucks a gallon things look good for them.
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Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby gollum » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 09:07:42

about the same as a year ago, no losses when averaged over 12 monthes. However I am in overseas funds so the decline of the dollar probably helped me.
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Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby Heineken » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 10:21:29

The stock market has so far largely escaped the impact of the economic downturn. Just how long this can continue is a matter of conjecture.

Since we are in the early transition stage from a long era of economic growth to a long era of economic contraction, stocks are not where you want to be. It's really that simple.

There may be a few individual winners along the way, but you'll have to be very lucky to be in one of them at the right time. As for mutual funds, they'll get creamed.

Notions like "stocks always rise over the long term" and "home values always rise over the long term" are deeply imbedded in our psyches, especially among those of us who have come of age during the long economic boom. So, many of us will have to learn that it ain't necessarily so, the hard way.
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Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby vision-master » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 10:38:49

Stockbroker's creed: A man is a client until proven broke. :cool:
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Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby frankthetank » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 10:41:10

Don't have one cent in the market. Have thought about moving money out of a couple of money market accounts, for fear they close up shop.

If what has happened even since Jan 1 08 is any indication, then can you imagine what its going to look like Jan 1 12 or Jan 1 2020? I just don't see a anything positive to look forward too. As long as the population continues to grow and the rich keep getting richer, we are fucked.

Good investment would have been buying a couple thousand gallons of unleaded at $2 in Feb 07... or buying diesel. 50% return!
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Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby vision-master » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 11:04:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'D')on't have one cent in the market. Have thought about moving money out of a couple of money market accounts, for fear they close up shop.

If what has happened even since Jan 1 08 is any indication, then can you imagine what its going to look like Jan 1 12 or Jan 1 2020? I just don't see a anything positive to look forward too. As long as the population continues to grow and the rich keep getting richer, we are fucked.

Good investment would have been buying a couple thousand gallons of unleaded at $2 in Feb 07... or buying diesel. 50% return!


If'n I was a young man "now", I'd invest in LAND. Screw the market.
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Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby jlw61 » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 11:27:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'S')tockbroker's creed: A man is a client until proven broke. :cool:


That's why they are called "brokers" :-D

Actually, my 401k is an insurance policy that eats up 6% of my gross income.

That insurance policy is in case there ISN'T a difficult post peak oil world. What if, next year, some genius figures out a way to cheaply turn salt water into fresh water and with the profits of that venture creates the Mr Fusion for the home and the Mr Fusion Jr for our cars?

The market would spiral past 30,000 and my 401k would allow me to retire in 20 years.

Again, it's a cheap insurance policy and, more importantly, I PRAY IT PAYS OFF!
When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
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Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby vision-master » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 11:39:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jlw61', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'S')tockbroker's creed: A man is a client until proven broke. :cool:


That's why they are called "brokers" :-D

Actually, my 401k is an insurance policy that eats up 6% of my gross income.

That insurance policy is in case there ISN'T a difficult post peak oil world. What if, next year, some genius figures out a way to cheaply turn salt water into fresh water and with the profits of that venture creates the Mr Fusion for the home and the Mr Fusion Jr for our cars?

The market would spiral past 30,000 and my 401k would allow me to retire in 20 years.

Again, it's a cheap insurance policy and, more importantly, I PRAY IT PAYS OFF!


Here's a little story for ya. My Mothers "lifetime" annuity just stopped. She never got a statement ever. My father collected from this annuity from 1977 till 1995. After he died, "they" sent a lump sum to my Mother. She sent it back. NOW, "they" say she re-invested in a 401k and the money is GONE. Thing is, she never signed any paper work, Me thinks, she being 89, "they" figured "they would fuck her over. We will see, time for an attorney, eh.

FYI: google ING
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Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby Specop_007 » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 12:35:06

"Personal Rate of Return from 01/01/2008 to 04/10/2008 is -8.0%"

Depending on what you believe the long term outlook as to what you should do.

If you think PO is a "bump in the road" type of situation, such that life will continue on mostly as it has, then this should be considered a great time to buy and hold for the long term.

If you think PO represents the end of civilization as we currently know it today, then I'd cash out while you have cash.

I'm of the former opinion, so frankly my current rate of return doesnt bother me as I consider this a great time to buy buy buy!

That said, I do have some plans in place should my bet be wrong and the second horse wins the race......
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Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby joeltrout » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 12:59:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', ' ')I'm young and I can afford to look at the long term.



I am 25....so I second that. Social Security will probably be obsolete when I qualify so I am putting the maximum amount into my 401k and the maximum amount into my Roth IRA.

The great thing about the Roth IRA is I can pull out the principle penalty free if I need to in the future and then any interest stays until I qualify to take it out.

I think it is STUPID to pull money out of retirement accounts before you qualify and pay the huge taxes just because the current markets scare you.

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Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby BigTex » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 13:50:38

1/1/2008 - 4/10/2008 is -5.3%

That doesn't bother me too much.

Many 401(k) plans have energy funds in them, and those are great.

I have a 401(k) balance at a previous employer and I have half in an energy fund and half in a fixed income fund and the return there is great.
:)
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Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby Revi » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 13:54:13

Mine is down quite a bit since the beginning of the year, but it's coming up a bit now. I don't want to cash out yet. I want it to grow some. I have very little faith in paper assets. It will probably come around, or it won't...
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Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby BigTex » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 14:01:44

For anyone interested in doing a conversion of a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA, the VERY best time to do it is when your account is down in value--fewer dollars to pay tax on.

One of the opportunities created by a crappy market.
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Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby joeltrout » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 14:12:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'F')or anyone interested in doing a conversion of a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA, the VERY best time to do it is when your account is down in value--fewer dollars to pay tax on.

One of the opportunities created by a crappy market.


I have a traditional IRA that I bought Bank of America stock a couple years ago when it was around $55 per share. Now it is $37 per share. Now might not be a bad time to convert it to my Roth IRA.

Thanks BigTex.

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Re: So how does your 401k statement look?

Postby drew » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 15:06:41

YOY I am up just under 2% which kind of shows you how 'good' my trading has been this past year. (it has certainly been unlike the home run years I had when the markets were doing well) Bought some stuff I shouldn't have, held some when i shouldn't have, and sold early on the good stuff.

So it goes.

(at least I'm in the black)


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