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Peak Oil - A Conspiracy Theory?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby oswald622 » Sun 06 Apr 2008, 20:34:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n order to believe something like that, you would have to believe that the prime dictum of modern economics, The Law Of Supply and Demand, is a complete fraud.


The Law of Supply and Demand states that markets reach equilibrium through the price mechanism - I don't see how that contradicts classical Conspiracy Theory, which only claims that supply and demand (thus price) are manipulated.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Peak Oil "theory" senso stricto only predicted global oil production will peak and then decline


That is why I differentiated between the denotations and connotations of Peak Oil Theory. The "Peak Oil Theory" I am specifically addressing here is Doomerism, in hues of black and blacker.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak oil theory and conspiracy theory aren't mutually exclusive. Opec's reaction, for example, to dwindling supplies, is going to be the same as a planned action to simply drive up price.


This was also noted in the original post. I would characterize OPEC manipulations, like oil company price-gouging, as 'limited conspiracies'. However, your point regarding the difficulty discerning between 'natural' reactions and 'pre-planned' reactions is well-taken. The key, I think, is whether, in a macro sense, we see greater chaos, or greater order-from-chaos. It is difficult to see how a decline in available energy would lead to something like a world-wide Orwellian police state, which is what most Conspiracy Theory predicts.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ible prophecy shows a one-world system, both political and religious, will be in place in the end before the return of Jesus Christ. It will be led by the Beast aka the Antichrist.


I'm not sure exactly how that describes a one-world system - there are two beasts, not one, and Revelation 17 speaks of a number of kings. What is your interpretation of that, POAlex?
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby POAlex » Sun 06 Apr 2008, 23:55:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oswald622', 'I')'m not sure exactly how that describes a one-world system - there are two beasts, not one, and Revelation 17 speaks of a number of kings. What is your interpretation of that, POAlex?


Hi oswald,

Here's where its clearly a one world system. The first beast is given complete political control over the world.

"And it was given unto him to make war with the saints, and to overcome them: and power was given him over all kindreds, and tongues, and nations." (Revelation 13:7)

The second beast is directing the world to worship the first beast. Later in Revelation he is known as the False Prophet. One beast has complete political control, the other has complete religious control.

Alex
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 07 Apr 2008, 00:24:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oswald622', '
')
The Law of Supply and Demand states that markets reach equilibrium through the price mechanism - I don't see how that contradicts classical Conspiracy Theory, which only claims that supply and demand (thus price) are manipulated.


It doesn't contradict it at all. In fact, the attempt to manipulate the market is the very essence of the law of supply and demand, which is based on the assumption that every seller is trying to work the market to get the highest price and every buyer is manipulating the market to get the lowest price.

The efforts of cartels like OPEC and/or market manipulation by big oil companies or evil speculators to manipulate the market are intrinsic to the law of supply and demand.

For instance, the OPEC cartel has at times tried to manipulate the oil supply by witholding their oil from the market. This artificially causes the oil price to rise. As the price rises more companies and countries outside of OPEC either sell more oil or invest in alternative energy or begin new exploration programs to bring new oil to the market. The increase in supply from sources outside the cartel eventually cause the price of oil to fall. :)

Thats the very essence of the law of supply and demand.
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby raisinbran » Mon 07 Apr 2008, 11:46:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Schadenfreude', '
')
In order to believe something like that, you would have to believe that the prime dictum of modern economics, The Law Of Supply and Demand, is a complete fraud. And there simply is no real evidence of that. Besides being part of modern economics, it is totally intuitive.
Humankind has always warred over shrinking resources - and that is totally in keeping with he law of supply and demand.



A conspiracy doesn't mean that supply and demand is fake, or fraud. If fact, supply and demand is true, and makes up what the vast majority of the population use.

However, imagine really rich people, influential people, who form secret pacts or societies. These people are highly developed in dealing with politics, negotiations, and "playing the market".

Instead of creating a fraudulent market, making it all seem like a hoax, they actually become very skilled at manipulating the natural laws of supply in demand.

For example, lets say that these people want to manipulate the price of oil. If they had, let's say, $50 billion, they could quite easily buy oil futures contracts enmasse, and raise the price of oil high. We saw evidence of that when oil went up to $112, and fell all the way down to $100. All done right before the bear stearns bailout.

There is no way that these conspirators can control every aspect of every part of society. But what they can do is manipulate markets, lobby for presidents, and finance machines of mass distraction, to keep a blind eye on people.

It is very possible that peak oil, like global warming, is yet another way to scare people into thinking that the life as we know it is coming to an end, and therefore the authorities should take more drastic action, more drastic than the people would have allowed otherwise. The scary part is that peak oil and global warming are both worldwide in nature, providing the perfect excuse for world leaders to implement a global economy, global government, and global army.

Watch for some UN action in the coming months or year ahead.
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby raisinbran » Mon 07 Apr 2008, 12:10:08

The original wild beast (Re 13:1), non scarlet colored with the ten diadems (crowns), is the world political system.

The two-horned (like a lamb) (Re 13:11) beast is the Anglo-American dual world power, which gives life to the image of the wild beast (Re 13:15), which is the UN.

The the scarlet colored wild beast in revelation chapter 17 is the UN.
The expression "The beast that thou sawest was, and is not; and shall ascend out of the bottomless pit" (Re 17:8 ) makes it clear that first it was the League of Nations, then was disbanded, then became the UN.

The great harlot is the entire empire of false religion. This is clear from "And the woman which thou sawest is that great city, which reigneth over the kings of the earth." (Re 17: 18 ) and much of chapter 18, notably with "for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived." (Re 18:23), sorceries implying spiritism, and we see that a lot in many religions across the world.

Also, Re 17:16 says "And the ten horns which thou sawest upon the beast, these shall hate the whore, and shall make her desolate and naked, and shall eat her flesh, and burn her with fire." This means that this world government, on the perogative of the ten kings of which it consists of, will stage a worldwide attack, or ban, of organized religion.

Watch for that too.
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 07 Apr 2008, 12:11:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('raisinbran', 'I')t is very possible that peak oil, like global warming, is yet another way to scare people into thinking that the life as we know it is coming to an end


It is also very possible that the issues raised by Peak Oil and Global Warming are based on factual and realistic scientific analysis, and that both Peak Oil and Greenhouse Warming are very real problems. :)
Last edited by Plantagenet on Mon 07 Apr 2008, 12:14:25, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby BigTex » Mon 07 Apr 2008, 12:12:53

Here is the most common "conspiracy":

If someone were able to track the way you spent every moment for the past year, every thought you had, the fluctuations of your heart rate, blood pressure and other vital signs, your caloric intake, the number of times you cursed, the number of times you wore each article of clothing you own....do you think that patterns would emerge that would surprise you? Probably so. There might even be pronounced patterns of which you were completely unaware on a day to day basis. You might think that there were going to be certain patterns and there actually weren't.

I think that these same patterns play out on much larger scales, and often they "look" like conspiracies, and to a degree they are, but they are very tricky to nail down because many of the participants are completely unaware that they are involved in anything other than their daily lives with no over-arching theme or intention. It is as if the conspiracy is actually the subconscious mind revealing itself through patterns that cannot be seen or felt except over longer periods than people are used to paying attention to.

If you adjust the system of rewards properly, everything people will do will appear to be conspiratorial, because the system will be calibrated to achieve that effect.

Thus, I think that there are layers upon layers of conspiracies unfolding and winding down at any given moment, but I doubt if many of them are conscious conspiracies, simply because it is near impossible to keep a group of any size TO KEEP THEIR MOUTHS SHUT.

Is a school of fish a fish conspiracy? What if the fish are not aware that they are in a school? Does that make it more or less of a conspiracy?

The ultimate human conspiracy is generational: we are plotting against our descendants to make sure they get as little as possible, though many of us are unaware that that's what we're doing.

The way that Orwell sets up the evil system in 1984 is probably the best description of the modern conspiracy--no one knows who is in on it, how large it is, how long it's been going, or whether there is actually any human mind at the center of it all. It's utterly decentralized with respect to the people who are actually in on the conspiracy; thus, it would be impossible to disrupt it, because no one person knows enough to change anything.

It's just a vague sense of uneasiness all the time.
:)
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 07 Apr 2008, 13:10:28

Completely agree with your post, for the most part, Big Tex. People get bent out of shape when they perceive patterns, that signify unconscious intent of their own, converging with intentional patterns of others. I disagree about the impossible nature of getting groups of people to keep their mouths shut, though. This can be arranged quite easily, and there is a strong history in criminology, that attests to that fact. The intelligence community and anyone with a security clearance can also be relied upon, generally speaking, to keep their mouths shut.

The fish schooling analogy is a good one, provided the fish are in the open sea. I had a school of tetras in my aquarium that I could get to swim any way I wanted, by dropping pellets of food in the water. I could get them to alter course on a dime. I could even fake them out, pretend I was dropping food and get the same effect. This is basically how people are controlled. Socially and culturally we are in an aquarium more than in an open ocean of information. We are controlled through management of our beliefs, and this is done, with conscious intent, through the use of propaganda.

Suggested reading--The Cultural Cold War.
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby Angry_Chimp » Mon 07 Apr 2008, 13:45:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'C')ompletely agree with your post, for the most part, Big Tex. People get bent out of shape when they perceive patterns, that signify unconscious intent of their own, converging with intentional patterns of others. I disagree about the impossible nature of getting groups of people to keep their mouths shut, though. This can be arranged quite easily, and there is a strong history in criminology, that attests to that fact. The intelligence community and anyone with a security clearance can also be relied upon, generally speaking, to keep their mouths shut.

The fish schooling analogy is a good one, provided the fish are in the open sea. I had a school of tetras in my aquarium that I could get to swim any way I wanted, by dropping pellets of food in the water. I could get them to alter course on a dime. I could even fake them out, pretend I was dropping food and get the same effect. This is basically how people are controlled. Socially and culturally we are in an aquarium more than in an open ocean of information. We are controlled through management of our beliefs, and this is done, with conscious intent, through the use of propaganda.

Suggested reading--The Cultural Cold War.


Or watch The Century Of The Self:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... 3825999151

"The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. Our minds are molded, our tastes are formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of."
~Edward Bernays, Propaganda (1928)
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby TheDude » Mon 07 Apr 2008, 17:19:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('raisinbran', 'I')t is very possible that peak oil, like global warming, is yet another way to scare people into thinking that the life as we know it is coming to an end


It is also very possible that the issues raised by Peak Oil and Global Warming are based on factual and realistic scientific analysis, and that both Peak Oil and Greenhouse Warming are very real problems. :)


You're high!

Or...one of them...

Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')I disagree about the impossible nature of getting groups of people to keep their mouths shut, though. This can be arranged quite easily, and there is a strong history in criminology, that attests to that fact. The intelligence community and anyone with a security clearance can also be relied upon, generally speaking, to keep their mouths shut.


People often live whole-hog in their delusions too. Remember the technician who saw all the alien tech at Area 51? Vivid, detailed descriptions. No actual solid proof though. But people go to hear his lectures, watch his slides, buy his books. How do you differentiate between the real deal and the tinfoil nutjob?

The mercantile theory for CT often makes the most sense to me; Jones does run a tidy little business hawking his infowar. He may be wholly sincere in his intentions too. People want to believe, whatever the validity of their idee fix. I like to think PO is more than that, and give doubters their benefit. You know, we are replacing production and staying basically flat, Mr. Lynch. You got a point.

Don't really agree with you about groups keeping secrets, having had a lifetime of dealing with people who seemingly have no conscious control of their jaw. I've never been able to wrap my head around this conspiracy of the Bilderbergs wanting to enforce global slavery or population control, either. Wouldn't it have been simpler to just not let the Green Revolution happen? With the money they have they'll be sitting pretty on their villas in Paraguay if TSHTF.
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby Zardoz » Mon 07 Apr 2008, 17:46:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '.')..I've never been able to wrap my head around this conspiracy of the Bilderbergs wanting to enforce global slavery or population control, either. Wouldn't it have been simpler to just not let the Green Revolution happen? With the money they have they'll be sitting pretty on their villas in Paraguay if TSHTF.

Stop making sense! That's no fun at all. CT hobbyists want no part of that sort of thinking.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 07 Apr 2008, 19:31:43

Dude, You too have a belief system. We all do. We need them to survive. Whether your system is partially or almost completely objectively correct or merely internally consistent, based on the angle of perception and perspective , is questionable. Many truisms turn out to be just useful working hypotheses, when viewed in hindsight.

Many conspiracy theories are over reaching, over interpreted, and agenda based. They sound nutty. Others are grounded in verifiable data, have been subject to scrutiny and vetted by scholarly individuals. But...the theory itself still "looks" nutty, if glanced at somewhat superficially.

As far as ufos go, there are all types involved in that pursuit, some scammers, some fantasy prone, some with religious ideation. There are many though, who are simply curious about the nature of reality, and have approached the subject from a science background. Their work should not be lumped together with those who, though possibly sincere, have low credibility.

My husband will be speaking at the X-conference in Washington DC, next week, along with Edgar Mitchell, astronaut, and Paul Hellyer, the minister of defence, during the Trudeau years, in Canada, among other credible individuals. I think any of them could easily get you to take a much more nuanced view on the subjec of ufos and by extension, the nature of cover-ups.
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 07 Apr 2008, 19:33:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '.')..I've never been able to wrap my head around this conspiracy of the Bilderbergs wanting to enforce global slavery or population control, either. Wouldn't it have been simpler to just not let the Green Revolution happen? With the money they have they'll be sitting pretty on their villas in Paraguay if TSHTF.

Stop making sense! That's no fun at all. CT hobbyists want no part of that sort of thinking.


This is highly insulting. Could you raise the caliber of response please.
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby oswald622 » Mon 07 Apr 2008, 19:54:32

This thread is becoming a general conversation on the nature of pattern-recognition, the psyche of the conspiratorially-minded, belief systems, etc., which is fine, but what I'm trying to establish is some benchmark by which we can determine the more predictively successful theory. The Peak Oil (Doomer) Theory and the Conspiracy Theory are both essentially speculative at this point - which is not to say that there are no facts or persuasive arguments supporting them, but that they make claims about reality that can only be verified by an as-yet-unknown future.

If we can narrow down sets of possible futures that we all agree are mutually exclusive, then those outcomes will effectively invalidate the opposing theory. For example, if prices keep rising, society collapses, the nations split into innumerable warring factions, and the international business elite are exterminated in a bloody world-wide people's revolution, then we can probably assume rather safely that the Conspiracy Theory was wrong after all.

Do you catch my drift? If so, then help me out and let's outline a reasonable framework.
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 07 Apr 2008, 20:03:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oswald622', 'T')his thread is becoming a general conversation on the nature of pattern-recognition, the psyche of the conspiratorially-minded, belief systems, etc., which is fine, but what I'm trying to establish is some benchmark by which we can determine the more predictively successful theory. The Peak Oil (Doomer) Theory and the Conspiracy Theory are both essentially speculative at this point - which is not to say that there are no facts or persuasive arguments supporting them, but that they make claims about reality that can only be verified by an as-yet-unknown future.

If we can narrow down sets of possible futures that we all agree are mutually exclusive, then those outcomes will effectively invalidate the opposing theory. For example, if prices keep rising, society collapses, the nations split into innumerable warring factions, and the international business elite are exterminated in a bloody world-wide people's revolution, then we can probably assume rather safely that the Conspiracy Theory was wrong after all.

Do you catch my drift? If so, then help me out and let's outline a reasonable framework.


You're never going to get mutual exclusivity here. Causal relationships inherent in this puzzle, are too entangled. Wish I could help 'ya.
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby TheDude » Mon 07 Apr 2008, 20:04:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'A')s far as ufos go, there are all types involved in that pursuit, some scammers, some fantasy prone, some with religious ideation. There are many though, who are simply curious about the nature of reality, and have approached the subject from a science background. Their work should not be lumped together with those who, though possibly sincere, have low credibility.

My husband will be speaking at the X-conference in Washington DC, next week, along with Edgar Mitchell, astronaut, and Paul Hellyer, the minister of defence, during the Trudeau years, in Canada, among other credible individuals. I think any of them could easily get you to take a much more nuanced view on the subjec of ufos and by extension, the nature of cover-ups.


Thread - used to read up on UFOs quite a bit and am familiar with the more plausible bits of evidence and theories to support them. Mostly favor the physical interpretations, magnetic phenomena we don't understand at the moment; or that we're seeing Black Ops test runs. Don't think aliens would get all this way to only crash in the desert. The way Europeans report seeing "hippy" aliens instead of the all-American "grays" is really fascinating, too. What kind of psychological mechanism could cause that?

I still try not to look down my nose at any avenue though. Maybe aliens are manifesting themselves in different forms to mess with us - they came all this way to mislead us, like we're ants being poked with a stick. Nothing better to do if you're a 50,000 year old civilization! The idea that we'll meet extraterrestrials on a level playing field is a real fantasy.

Would post more but hafta get my pickup's key barrel fixed.

Lay off, Zardoz! Even giant flying stone heads should have manners!
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 07 Apr 2008, 20:08:39

Okay Dude, The Dudester, Dudereeni. Wish the Coen brothers would do some Alex Jones type story line movie!
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby oswald622 » Wed 10 Dec 2008, 16:52:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'O')kay Dude, The Dudester, Dudereeni. Wish the Coen brothers would do some Alex Jones type story line movie!


In fact, I wish anyone would do a story like that! With all the crap movies Hollywood is churning out, and all the recycled material, no one has put out even ONE movie with some hardcore conspiracy stuff. They all just flirt around the edges...they're either allegorical, like the Matrix and V for Vendetta; or they're cute and comical, like Men in Black.

I'd like to see a super-paranoid, disturbing mind-fuck of a film, with underground alien/military bases, where women and babies scream behind chicken-wire fences and reptoid ETs bite off their heads for adrenaline fixes. Where mind-controlled sex slaves roam the White House, and televangelists engage in occult blood-letting rituals. Where family values Republicans in hooded robes copulate before giant stone owl idols in the woods of Northern California. Where advanced, space-based weaponry - the Eye in the Sky - conjures hurricanes, projects holograms, and collects info on everyone...

Now that would be great entertainment! Why hasn't anyone made a film like this? Hmmm...
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby Angry_Chimp » Thu 11 Dec 2008, 16:47:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oswald622', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'O')kay Dude, The Dudester, Dudereeni. Wish the Coen brothers would do some Alex Jones type story line movie!


In fact, I wish anyone would do a story like that! With all the crap movies Hollywood is churning out, and all the recycled material, no one has put out even ONE movie with some hardcore conspiracy stuff. They all just flirt around the edges...they're either allegorical, like the Matrix and V for Vendetta; or they're cute and comical, like Men in Black.

I'd like to see a super-paranoid, disturbing mind-Fark of a film, with underground alien/military bases, where women and babies scream behind chicken-wire fences and reptoid ETs bite off their heads for adrenaline fixes. Where mind-controlled sex slaves roam the White House, and televangelists engage in occult blood-letting rituals. Where family values Republicans in hooded robes copulate before giant stone owl idols in the woods of Northern California. Where advanced, space-based weaponry - the Eye in the Sky - conjures hurricanes, projects holograms, and collects info on everyone...

Now that would be great entertainment! Why hasn't anyone made a film like this? Hmmm...



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUKQz-xm0is

If that "type" of entertainment strikes to close to the "truth" it will get pulled before the hit the air...

==AC
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Re: Peak Oil Theory vs. Conspiracy Theory

Unread postby Angry_Chimp » Thu 11 Dec 2008, 17:02:25

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