[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'P')erhaps.

Let's suppose people accept Peak Oil. Then they recognize that the era of exponential growth is at an end. What happens?

1) Stock market crash. No growth equal low stock valuations.

2) Social turmoil. The pie will not grow - it will shrink. The poor will never have a chance to "get a piece". How will that play?

3) Political turmoil. Forget Social Security and all those other social programs. The system won't even be able to pay debt service. How will the voters respond?

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '
')It is a shame we will have to meet in mortal combat following the peak.

[cynthia]

Speaking of neighborhoods and conspiracy, I harken back to 2002 and VP activity that was certainly planned to span more than two terms...
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington ... asts_x.htm
cynthia

[killJOY]

Matt,

I'm trying to laugh, but I can't...

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '
')Come on Jack, you're off your game a bit today.

[AFO]

Based on the report, the non-opec oil production will peak around 2010 (figure 10 - Pg. 26), and if Saudi Arabia & Iran (the 2 highest opec producing countries) are lying on their reserves capacity & production, then most probably peak will happen before 2010.

Care to comment on my analysis?

[Ludi]

This issue is not much covered because nobody much cares.


I've said it before, I'll say it again NOBODY CARES.


It's simply a non-issue to most people.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')his issue is not much covered because nobody much cares.


I've said it before, I'll say it again NOBODY CARES.


It's simply a non-issue to most people.

[Ludi]

What is the precise difference between "they don't care" and "they don't take it seriously"?


If someone does not take something seriously, they generally don't care about it. If they don't care about it, they don't take it seriously.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')hat is the precise difference between "they don't care" and "they don't take it seriously"?


If someone does not take something seriously, they generally don't care about it. If they don't care about it, they don't take it seriously.

[pea-jay]

I'm of the mind that there is no vast conspiracy of the Iron Triangle or anyother entity. People are generally stupid. They will assume what happened yesterday will predict tomorrow and if somebody offers a vision of tomorrow that differs greatly from that, they're apt to reject it unless they see direct evidence of it. $3 buck gas isnt going to cut it. The only conspiracies you'll hear then is classic "theyre gouging us again"

Like I said, most people are stupid. Never underestimate the power of collective stupidity. Too bad our species didnt have a few more millenia to evolve out those bad traits before stumbling onto petroleum.

[JasonHam]

I think most people dismiss Peak Oil because , at this stage at least, it seems the "cult-like" doomers have taken to it like white on rice. When you start talking about Civilzation ending and a new Dark age starting in just a few years, nothing you say after that is heard. You fall into the Y2K,Rapture, Waco, Aliens taking over the world category. 99% of the population thinks you are little "wacky". In fact, i think the phrase peak -oil will be replaced with something else.

[retiredguy]

To people who bother to pay attention PO is just another idiot standing on the street corner shouting that the end is near.

They've heard these stories before. From Tillich through the oil embargos of the 70's. So where are we at today? Gas is still affordable and the sky has not fallen. Why would they believe the most recent crop of scaremongers?

The only way this issue would command attention from the masses is if someone or group of someones the media pays close attention to would act as the PO spokesman. But who among the PTB will be the first to publicly endorse PO?

By the time this happens, most people in the country will also be aware.

[JasonHam]

Why would they believe the most recent crop of scaremongers?

Exactly. And it seems that the world is full of scaremongering right now. I don't think people are scared, but aprehensive might be a good word. And when it comes to the end of the civilization scenarios, Peak-Oil, doesnt even make the top 5.

I'm not a doomer, but I do think they have a place. Maybe if the doomers didnt bring so much attention to Y2K business/government wouldnt have spent so much money to fix it.

But retiredguy is right; Peak-Oil needs a spokesperson who doesn't claim were all Doomed. I personally think , eventually, peak -oil, will be bundled into a phrase or term like "Energy Crisis". Global warming is sort of becoming Climate Change. How many years went by when the majority viewed Global Warming as "a fringe element". Now, if you say Global Warming/Climate Change is false, it's almost like lighting a cigarette up at kids soccer game.

I think peak-oil will get its day. Whether its called Peak-oil? I'm not so sure.

[Twilight]

Most people have accepted global warming / climate change, but are they doing something constructive about it? No. Does it look as though they will? No. Will their understanding therefore affect the material outcome? No.

If peak oil is the same, if all it needs is a socially acceptable spokesperson to reach mainstream opinion, then the aforementioned experience suggests it won't matter whether people understand the situation or not, and it will merely result in the addition of a new philosophy of crisis to compete for the same amount of attention. The best we can expect is for people to place the right name to what's impoverishing them.

These days in practice, raising public awareness of any major issue seems to be done for its own sake, as inertia is so great, there is little prospect of influencing outcomes. I don't even mention resource depletion to people I know any more and "mhmm" noncommittally in conversation because there is no point in adding a new note of discord. Joseph A. Tainter discussed eleven major themes in collapse. #4 Insufficient response to circumstances - check.

[JasonHam]

I agree Twilight.

And, why is it when you try to talk about this stuff with family or friends or anybody outside this message board, they have nothing to say. No response at all, no questions, no comments, nothing.....................................................................

You either get a complete change of subject , a blank stare or the "are you a nutball?" stare.

I know, I know people dont care, they are in denial, they dont believe in all the resource depletion stuff, ......I just dont get it.....

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JasonHam', 'A')nd, why is it when you try to talk about this stuff with family or friends or anybody outside this message board, they have nothing to say.

[retiredguy]

Great post Twilight. However, there are some of us who will be really old in 2020, who have success in their lives under the current melieu, and therefore, have a vested interest in the status quo who believe that powerdown and die-off is the only solution.

But we are far too few to have any effect.

[JasonHam]

That was a great answer!!!

[CrudeAwakening]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '
')Then there is the largest and best-known group, those limited by the psychology of past investment. No-one who has given years of their life in the service of some cause will willingly recognise its obsolescence. I invested my youth, money and self-esteem in learning about energy and engineering, and derive my income from it, so when this area throws up some new issues, paying attention comes naturally. Had I invested my youth, money and self-esteem (this last bit is particularly important) in learning all about advertising, and derived my income from that, I would be very, very resistant to hearing my work and place in the world described as 'GDP from waste and inefficiency', and hearing that an invisible section of the economy existing at a far lower level of abstraction is going to put me out of business.