by JPL » Sat 02 Feb 2008, 21:47:32
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JPL, am I mistaken, or has not your view darkened considerably over the past few years?
Can't say I blame you.
I suspect your 50-year timespan is on the long side, but I sure as hell hope you're right.
Oops I think I'm in touch with my 'inner doomer' right now. Probably pull out of it soon enough (grin).
50 years is roughly the time since the book
Silent Spring first alerted the world to what could happen if we continued to treat the planet like a bottomless dustbin. Based on track record, it's going to take at least another 50 to really get a low-ecological-impact society up & rolling.
So that's where I get my timescale from. I'll just take out the self-indulgent bit & clarify why I find this depressing.
My view is NOT that we have 50 years of civilisation before a crash, rather we probably have 50 more years of mexican stand-off against reality before a flood of 'Silent Springs' FORCE us to accept the truth.
This truth being, that there is nothing civilised, nothing nice about the way we are currently trashing the place. To some of us it already causes immense pain.
But like I said earlier, that 'some of us' figure is probably about 10% of the people here. The rest still treat the running-out of liquid fuels as fundamentally a 'bad' thing. They would rather fight the inevitable than face it.
And that, my friends, is what may well cause your 'die-off'. The concept that Peak Oil is somehow a problem that needs solving, rather than a solution that should be embraced.
JP