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The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby cube » Sun 27 Jan 2008, 18:28:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'H')ow sagacious of you. What are next weeks lottery numbers and daytime temps?
At least you have a sense of humor but I'm being serious. I am NOT pulling numbers out of my ass. 50% down payment mortgages was the requirement back in the days
http://www.thehistoryof.net/history-of- ... gages.html

Let me dig up something that you said yourself:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'T')he institution that created that irresponsible debt must write it off.

If that's the case then I guess lending institutions should only lend responsibly. *agreed?* Considering that in a real estate crash a home can drop 40% + real estate agent fees + the possibility the owner will go psycho in a foreclose...the only way to lend responsibly (aka cover your ass) would be for a bank to demand a 50% down payment.

However that's not what people want. People want cheap credit NOT responsible credit and that's why I have no sympathy for Joe Sixpack. Let Americans reap what they sow. As for me being sagacious (fancy words eh?) my advice --> buy gold. 5 years from now you'll double your money. 8)
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby Concerned » Sun 27 Jan 2008, 18:46:40

The particular deposit rate is a minor side issue in the broader scale of things. For example total systemic change and major redistribution of wealth and heavily taxing breeding. Globally of course.

From Free Internet Press

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Yet finance is not like any other business. When a bank makes a mistake, the ramifications for the rest of the financial and economic system are so severe that it has to be bailed out - witness Britain's Northern Rock. Because of this truth, financiers have organized themselves so that actual or potential losses are picked up by somebody else - if not their clients, then the state - while profits are kept to themselves. An industry that socializes losses while privatizing profit, and that has the capacity to create booms and busts alike, has to be as closely regulated as any utility.

I was reminded of the system's proclivities by a consultant friend who was hired to arbitrate over a performance bonus between a hedge fund and one of its asset managers. The individual in question was paid a base salary of some $100,000, but the investment funds he managed had done well over 2007, rising in value by more than $500 million. His bonus was $206 million and he felt that to conform to industry norms, his bonus should be nearer $250 million - the cause of the dispute.

What, I asked, would happen in 2008 if the assets he managed fell in value? He would get paid his base salary and no bonus came the reply. And would he be required to repay any of the $250 million he had pocketed this year? Of course not.

This is the one-way, short-term bet that is endemic in the way the financial services industry rewards itself and which incentivizes recklessness
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby Concerned » Sun 27 Jan 2008, 18:52:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', ' ')Considering that in a real estate crash a home can drop 40% + real estate agent fees + the possibility the owner will go psycho in a foreclose...the only way to lend responsibly (aka cover your ass) would be for a bank to demand a 50% down payment.
Perhaps we could do away with loans at interest all together? Re-examine our banking and economic system.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')owever that's not what people want. People want cheap credit NOT responsible credit and that's why I have no sympathy for Joe Sixpack. Let Americans reap what they sow. As for me being sagacious (fancy words eh?) my advice --> buy gold. 5 years from now you'll double your money.
What will my pile of gold be worth when I can't grow food, drink the polluted water and breath clean air? I guess we could ask the Incas what their gold was worth in a MAJOR crisis?

More more more give me more... sad :( But I fear thats where we are headed.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby cube » Sun 27 Jan 2008, 19:21:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')et finance is not like any other business. When a bank makes a mistake, the ramifications for the rest of the financial and economic system are so severe that it has to be bailed out - witness Britain's Northern Rock. Because of this truth, financiers have organized themselves so that actual or potential losses are picked up by somebody else - if not their clients, then the state - while profits are kept to themselves. An industry that socializes losses while privatizing profit, and that has the capacity to create booms and busts alike, has to be as closely regulated as any utility.
If I remember correctly MrBill said something to the effect of : "those with an IQ of 130 will profit from those with under 100...." I have an idea, perhaps instead of creating welfare for the poor we should create welfare for the clueless? :wink:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'P')erhaps we could do away with loans at interest all together?
Re-examine our banking and economic system.
I'm not a banker nor do I play one on TV but I do know that banks are private institutions that operate on profit. They're not philanthropists that's for sure! Without interest how does a bank make a profit? There must be some type of "cost/restriction" to getting a loan. If there were NOT then everybody would be getting loans like free candy on Halloween. With all that extra money floating around there would be hyperinflation. That's what happened during the housing boom.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'W')hat will my pile of gold be worth when I can't grow food, drink the polluted water and breath clean air? I guess we could ask the Incas what their gold was worth in a MAJOR crisis?
the world isn't going to blow up on schedule 5 years from now. There's still a potential for profit right now!
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 28 Jan 2008, 06:23:43

Anytime someone suggests interest free loans - free money - and tries to tie that to sensible monetary or fiscal policies to cure the ills of our current financial system then I need not read any further except perhaps to amuse myself.

Real interest rates are the cost of money. Without any cost attached to money it would be freely available to anyone and everyone in unlimited amounts. I would not suggest a perpetual, zero coupon bond as a very wise investment. Think about it? Duh! ; - )
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby Concerned » Mon 28 Jan 2008, 06:39:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'A')nytime someone suggests interest free loans - free money - and tries to tie that to sensible monetary or fiscal policies to cure the ills of our current financial system then I need not read any further except perhaps to amuse myself.
--snip-- I would not suggest a perpetual, zero coupon bond as a very wise investment. Think about it? Duh!
Pity you don't care to examine any deeper than the empty platitudes of your dying ideology.
-If there are $100 in the economy.
-If there is no interest on loans.
-If no one is making any additional money.

How will people have unlimited money? How can I borrow $200? You need the current banking fraud to do that. One that steals from people in two ways.
1. Interest on money created out of thin air.
2. Debasing the currency through increasing money supply.

One idea I had is that we should have a deflation based economy that stifles spending, investment and growth. Can't have that can we got to keep breeding and growing, growing and growing till we colonize the moon and beyond. Sheesh folks this is what we are up against, we're gone.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 28 Jan 2008, 06:44:56

So what you're talking about is no lending, ever, period. Because if I have money. The $100 and you do not. Then I will spend that money to acquire a real, physical asset that generates a return on my investment be it land or something else like financing trade in the form of profit sharing. But I sure as Hell am not going to lend it to you for zero interest. Good luck with that, Concerned! I cannot think of a better idea for concentrating money and power in the hands of the existing rich? Any other hair-brained ideas for my amusement? ; - )
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby Concerned » Mon 28 Jan 2008, 06:55:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 't')he world isn't going to blow up on schedule 5 years from now. There's still a potential for profit right now!
Dang ! Now I'm disappointed. You can tell me that there will be a requirement for a 50% deposit when there is no government bailout "hints" available of these "private" banking institutions. And now you can't tell me when the world is going to blow up?

So far I'm betting 2020-25. With 2010-12 becoming the years when energy depletion becomes really noticeable as people are no longer able to pretend that an oil subsidy does not exist for things such as wind/solar/nuclear. Needless to say this whole debate is a moot point.

Quick thought how about elements of primitive capitalism.
1. High transparency on all transactions.
2. No intellectual property except your skills and ideas you keep to "yourself"
3. Living a sustainable life with nature.
4. Dying young say 50-65 but really living life.

As you can see I am a fountain of great ideas that would have me drinking hemlock by the gallon :-D
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby Concerned » Mon 28 Jan 2008, 07:01:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'S')o what you're talking about is no lending, ever, period. Because if I have money. The $100 and you do not. Then I will spend that money to acquire a real, physical asset that generates a return on my investment be it land or something else like financing trade in the form of profit sharing. But I sure as Hell am not going to lend it to you for zero interest. Good luck with that, Concerned! I cannot think of a better idea for concentrating money and power in the hands of the existing rich? Any other hair-brained ideas for my amusement? ; - )


Oh don't worry I would aim to un-concentrate if from your hands and other rich very quickly.

In fact just stopping money being loaned at interest and money creation (inflation) would do the trick.

Actually might have to keep some inflation (money creation) but going to the bottom 98% as opposed to the top 2%
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 28 Jan 2008, 07:11:44

Yes, reading your posts I cannot help but think of Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged and how the masses try to grab at a shrinking economic pie! Everyone thinking that they are going to confiscate the assets of those better off than them without thinking about those that covet their assets. Thankfully, you will never be in a position of power or influence, so as you say, 'the point is moot!' See you on the other side of peak, Concerned! ; - )
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby Concerned » Mon 28 Jan 2008, 07:15:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', ' ')Any other hair-brained ideas for my amusement? ; - )
How about the primitive capitalism idea. It's a new thought a way of saying back to the future. I guess I'd have to spin the primitive part how about sustainable capitalism?

Anyhow lots of concepts and ideas to flesh out. Which I won't because
1. Im too busy.
2. There is no point.

The only thing that will change our current system is a major crisis e.g. global 1930's style depression.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby Concerned » Mon 28 Jan 2008, 07:20:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'Y')es, reading your posts I cannot help but think of Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged and how the masses try to grab at a shrinking economic pie! --snip-- See you on the other side of peak, Concerned! ; - )
Never is a long time... However I would say that your statement approaches P=1. Depending on how you define power and influence of course.

Not only is the point moot but so is your "individual" life and your children too. Although your hallucination may be that you are doing something really, incredibly important and saving the world.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby Concerned » Mon 28 Jan 2008, 07:28:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'Y')es, reading your posts I cannot help but think of Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged and how the masses try to grab at a shrinking economic pie! Everyone thinking that they are going to confiscate the assets of those better off than them without thinking about those that covet their assets. Thankfully, you will never be in a position of power or influence, so as you say, 'the point is moot!' See you on the other side of peak, Concerned! ; - )


The other thing to keep in mind is that I personally don't intend be the leader of any pissed off people. However if someone decided to make me drink hemlock or become a benevolent dictator I'd have to weight up my options.

If you get enough really pissed off people and they decide to implement outrageous policy then whoever is leading them is irrelevant (moot point) as it's the policy that counts not who is leading them.

I thought you would think deeper than this being a personal aggrandizement scheme on my behalf but you being a Rand reader clearly shows your superficial and hollow view of the world.

As to seeing you on the other side, if the powers up and running I'll be bashing away at the keyboard. Off and on of course :)
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 28 Jan 2008, 07:28:57

Concerned wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lthough your hallucination may be that you are doing something really, incredibly important and saving the world.


No delusions here! I am doing some 'incredibly important' things for my community, but by definition they are local and not global in nature. My primary obligation is towards my family and my community and then the greater good. As plain as it is simple!
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby Concerned » Mon 28 Jan 2008, 07:31:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'N')o delusions here! --snip-- As plain as it is simple!
No no delusions MrBill you're just full of gooey goodness for the community and greater good. You're like Mother Theresa in a Navy Blue pin stripe suit.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 28 Jan 2008, 07:42:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'N')o no delusions MrBill you're just full of gooey goodness for the community and greater good. You're like Mother Theresa in a Navy Blue pin stripe suit.
Yes, and through Rotary International, Habitat for Humanity, Ducks Unlimited and other volunteer organizations we can magnify the financial and volunteer impact of those efforts that are felt in the local community and around the world where such help is sorely needed. Mother Theresa and many others have benefited from that coordination and fund raising. Did we solve all the world's problems? No, but we did not create all of them either. Cheers my friend. I would like to argue all day with you, but I must get back to work here! Thanks.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby Concerned » Mon 28 Jan 2008, 07:51:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'Y')es, and through Rotary International, Habitat for Humanity, Ducks Unlimited and other volunteer organizations we can magnify the financial and volunteer impact of those efforts --snip-- Cheers my friend. I would like to argue all day with you, but I must get back to work here! Thanks.
See you another day :( For what it's worth I think you are one of PO.com's assets. You have a passion for what you do. (although I think your ideology and general outlook are misguided)

I remember you helped me out when I was asking trading questions when I wrote my first warrant options. I remember that thank you.

I think you are an intelligent talented person who is passionate about what you do. I just happen to think many of your core beliefs regards the so called "economy" and "markets" are dead wrong. Rest assured I am not the only one who thinks this way. I am the messenger pointing to the vultures up above.

If you are in a position of power and influence then please do something or if you really think everything is humming along just fine then by all means continue on with business as usual and serving your community first and foremost.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 28 Jan 2008, 12:19:19

Yes, I can imagine I am not the most popular poster on peak oil dot com? But I would be more nervous if everyone started to agree with me. I like the minority position quite fine. So long as the markets vindicate me once in a while.

This is not a popularity contest. There are no right answers to resource depletion and post peak oil in particular, but there are a lot of wrong solutions that would leave us worse off than doing nothing!

A diversity of opinion is good here. It avoids Group Think. However, I am not looking to convert anyone or even to preach to the converted. So long as I can act on my own ideas - great. It is my risk and mine alone! ; - )
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby aflurry » Wed 30 Jan 2008, 20:35:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'A')llow the person to go bankrupt and that individual not allow to enter into loan contracts for the next five years. The institution that created that irresponsible debt must write it off.
provided they haven't already sold the bad debt off to foreign investors with a bow on it. silly, the people who create the debt don't own the debt anymore. that's so your grandfather's capitalism.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 31 Jan 2008, 04:34:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', ']')provided they haven't already sold the bad debt off to foreign investors with a bow on it. silly, the people who create the debt don't own the debt anymore. that's so your grandfather's capitalism.
Which is great because it gets the financial risk off the bank's balance sheet, so it lowers the cost of capital and frees up additional capital to make more loans. If you are looking for a 10% fixed mortgage - 25% down, 25-year repayment - then give me a call. If you're looking for a 3.50% mortgage - 0% down, 30-year repayment, with the chance to refinance or borrow against your home equity - then call a bank who will then on-sell your debt to someone else! Cheers.
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