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The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby mkwin » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 08:03:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mattduke', 'C')redit expansion (loaning unbacked paper) artificially increases the supply of credit, lowers it's price, and thereby increases demand. --snip-- I doubt those on the Federal Reserve career track are likely to espouse a free market in money.
It is utterly impossible for credit to be the horse in this scenario. There has to be a demand for the credit in the first place. Once the credit has reached the market it does create additional economic activity due to the multiplicity of money but without that initial demand there would be no point of entry to the real economy. Of course central banks can try to stimulate demand by lowering interest rates and reduce demand by increasing interest rates when inflation begins to rear its ugly head but you cannot create economic activity simply by providing money. If you could, the Japanese would not have been in and out of recession for the last 17 years.

The Austrian school are champions of the gold standard, which restricts our ability to control monetary policy by placing a physical restraint on the supply of money, which would have lead to far less economic growth. The reason being, when demand for money increased, if gold production could not increase in tandem, it would lead to far higher interest rates, which in turn would have choked off economic growth and we would all be a lot poorer now.

The recent expansion in credit has been extreme. The cause of which was Greenspan who kept rates too low too long leading to a global property and credit boom. He was only able to do this due to the deflationary affect cheap labour in China was having on the overall level of price inflation. This coincided with the advent of securised debt, which reduced the incentive of banks to ensure their borrowers were credit worthy. These are two very specific problems and the former is a lesson for central bankers and the latter for regulators. It is not, however, a reason to abandon a system that, while not perfect, is superior to an antiquated system of using a physical resource to dictate the money supply. Interestingly, the banking tycoons of the 19th and early 20th century preferred the gold standard; it protected the value of their debt and lead, normally, to higher interest rates. They didn’t care if common folk lived in terrible conditions unable to expand their economies without being choked by this artificial limit.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby mkwin » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 08:09:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')redit expansion (loaning unbacked paper)


Credit is almost never paper. It is numbers and zeros on a computer screen.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby Concerned » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 08:12:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'E')ven if you were given a magic wish and could create your own perfect Utopian government (whatever that may be)
It's called democracy.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')) no mater how many protective laws to defend the weak
2) no matter how many government agencies designed to help ....you must accept the fact that. A fool and his money is soon parted! 8)

They can just as easily be re-united and they snake oil salesman can be shot. You're turning lead to gold? Wow great Im turning people to dust come meet your maker.

Enron thieves shot, worldcom theives shot, dot com thieves shot (where they actually promised returns as opposed to venture capital). CDO market to model shysters rounded up and shot.

Heck stone them boil them in oil whatever. A slap on the wrist with time in some low security prison for 3-4 years come out and live with your ill gotten gains me thinks not. Thats one start. Yeah I know Im full of good ideas :) You can thank me later ;)
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby Concerned » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 08:20:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')(from the daily reckoning)

One of the most interesting and informative books we have come across lately is one from Barry Dyke called the “Pirates of Manhattan.” The book shows how Wall Street insiders separate the masses from their money.

The most obvious way, of course, is by paying themselves a lot of shareholders’ money and calling it “compensation.” For example, at one point, the book shows that a Mr. E. Stanley O’Neil was paid a total of $38,121,766 from Merrill Lynch in 2005. What was he doing that justified that kind of money? Well, as subsequent events would show, he was doing nothing to add shareholder value. Instead, he guided the great ship right into an iceberg.

So far, the losses reported on Wall Street are staggering. But rumors of much larger losses are being whispered...and at least one source we read suggested that the firms may be bankrupt...crushed by total system-wide losses of more than $3 trillion.

But don’t worry about Mr. E. Stanley O’Neil. He was the first one in the lifeboat when the ship began taking on water. And what a luxury lifeboat it was! His severance was reportedly worth about $250 million...not bad for a man who had just wrecked one of the greatest financial firms of all time.


My solution, Mr E. Stanley O'neil, Shot and all assets seized including everything except a modest house with a small mortgage 200k per working person for immediate family. They can get a job too.
"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby LoneSnark » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 12:59:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's called democracy.

Excellent. We can all get together and vote on what type of car we are all going to drive. We can even vote on what food will be served on Fridays! This will be fun; we the majority can even vote to make Concerned drink hemlock!

Life is great under a democracy, all those pesky individual rights and liberties just get in the way of good majoritarian tyranny. [/sarcasm]
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby Concerned » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 15:15:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'E')xcellent. We can all get together and vote on what type of car we are all going to drive. We can even vote on what food will be served on Fridays! This will be fun; we the majority can even vote to make Concerned drink hemlock! Life is great under a democracy, all those pesky individual rights and liberties just get in the way of good majoritarian tyranny. [/sarcasm]
You could vote to make me drink hemlock, I guess I'd have to be stoic like Socrates, although I suspect I would bend to the courts will before he did. Then again he was 70 so to hell with it I guess you could drink it to make a point. The reasons for such a requirement (drinking hemlock) on my behalf would be interesting to say the least.

Thankfully democracy and individual freedoms are not mutually exclusive as you seem to wish to erroneously portray. If the rule is you can buy any car, live in any country, work any job, eat what food you like AND if you
1. Kill someone
2. Destroy or Steal tens of millions of dollars

then you get shot. You still have freedom with boundaries. Look Im sorry you can't go around freely stealing, embezzling, breaking into houses, the odd rape here or there but you know just as there are limits to growth there has to be limits to freedom.

Just cause some idiot guy Adult content deleted. does not mean he can use his "freedom" to do that DITTO with any similar line of reasoning on natural human behavior with regards wanting to make a bucket load of cash by swindling others. There should be very serious penalty including death sentence and repossession of assets from family and friends.

I feel sorry that in your society individual freedoms to do whatever ape like thought pops into your head is more important than having a fairer, safer more harmonious community.
"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 17:07:45

I feel sorry for any totalitarian society in which like-minded individuals like Concerned impose their will on others.... let's punish anyone successful! I guess he would feel perfectly happy in Zimbabwe? ; - )
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby LoneSnark » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 17:31:32

Ahh, but Concerned, murdering or stealing from me would be a violation of my individual rights and liberties and the rest of society should punish them accordingly, nice try though.

Suicide-related text deleted. Personally, I would run for it, as it would be immoral for me to enable someone else (even a lot of someone elses) to violate my rights.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 17:39:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'A')hh, but Concerned, murdering or stealing from me would be a violation of my individual rights and liberties and the rest of society should punish them accordingly, nice try though. --snip-- Personally, I would run for it, as it would be immoral for me to enable someone else (even a lot of someone elses) to violate my rights.
I love the disconnect in logic between posters on peak oil dot com...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1'). Kill someone
2. Destroy or Steal tens of millions of dollars
I thought they were worthless fiat currency? Why would it matter if I had $1000 or $10 million? They are worthless, right? ; - ))
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby mattduke » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 18:57:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'L')ook Im sorry you can't go around freely stealing, embezzling, breaking into houses, the odd rape here or there but you know just as there are limits to growth there has to be limits to freedom. --snip-- I feel sorry that in your society individual freedoms to do whatever ape like thought pops into your head is more important than having a fairer, safer more harmonious community.

Reads like a page straight out of John Stuart Mill's "On Liberty."
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby cube » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 23:35:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'T')hey can just as easily be re-united and they snake oil salesman can be shot.
Imagine this scenario. Somebody bought a home for $400,000 with 0% downpayment and the home drops to $300,000. The owner is unable to make payments so the bank forecloses and sells the property. The bloke is now $100,000 "underwater" and owes the bank big time.

You're the president of the USA what do you do?
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby Concerned » Sat 26 Jan 2008, 04:42:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'A')hh, but Concerned, murdering or stealing from me would be a violation of my individual rights and liberties --snip-- Personally, I would run for it, as it would be immoral for me to enable someone else (even a lot of someone elses) to violate my rights.
Hehe theft is theft, if some guy dresses up in a suit and tells you nice stories about how much money he will make (lead to gold, dot com, Enron <insert scam>) and ends up walking with millions thats theft. Shooting gallery time.
Text deleted.. LOL Nothing like a good libertarian.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby Concerned » Sat 26 Jan 2008, 04:51:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'I')magine this scenario. Somebody bought a home for $400,000 with 0% downpayment and the home drops to $300,000.--snip-- You're the president of the USA what do you do?
Allow the person to go bankrupt and that individual not allow to enter into loan contracts for the next five years. The institution that created that irresponsible debt must write it off. Next question.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby Concerned » Sat 26 Jan 2008, 04:52:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I') thought they were worthless fiat currency? Why would it matter if I had $1000 or $10 million? They are worthless, right? ; - ))
Oh my God MrBill you got me. LOL
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby cube » Sat 26 Jan 2008, 05:40:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'A')llow the person to go bankrupt and that individual not allow to enter into loan contracts for the next five years. The institution that created that irresponsible debt must write it off. Next question.
Unfortunately things are a little bit more "tangled". Most banks do NOT hold onto home loans per say...instead they sell them off as a mortgaged back security/ bonds. This works it's way into the bond market where they are picked up by institutional investors. The only reason why these big investment firms touch these bonds (at these prices / risks) is because there is an "implied hint" that government will step in if things go bad. --> like what's happening now

You are essentially saying you do NOT believe in government welfare for corporations. That's great...I have the same opinion too! However there are consequences.

Without government's "implied hint" of backing these bonds absolutely NO investment institution would touch them, therefore no bank could make a home loan under such conditions. A 0% down payment loan would have never existed. If you were a rich investor would you ever loan money out with a 0% down payment requirement without backing from the government?....HELL NO. Want to guess what the down payment requirement was back in the old days (early 1900's) when there was no government backing? --> 50%

Mortgages came to the Americas

BTW I'm perfectly fine with this. This is the way it SHOULD be honestly. A lot of liberals would say my gosh that is horrible most people would not be able to "afford" home ownership with a 50% down payment requirement. My answer to society would be if you can't afford it then maybe you don't deserve it!

Don't you agree? :wink:
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby MrBill » Sat 26 Jan 2008, 06:27:08

You're right, Cube. In some countries like Russia where they did not have bankruptcy laws and the ability to enforce pledges over collateral in the case of default until very recently it was basically impossible to borrow money without putting down 50% plus.

Even with a 10% downpayment and 6% interest rates, like say in the 60s, would have simply disqualified many homeowners who would have had to rent longer and save longer in order to get into their first home at the bottom of the housing ladder instead of into a McMansion.

I am fine with that. There would not have been as much housing inflation as a result of easy credit. But I can imagine the hew and cry from would be homeowners as larger downpayments and higher real interest rates would naturally benefit the rich who would own the apartment buildings and be renting to the lower middle classes.

I think we should all pay cash before we buy something on credit, but if it were public policy then the social advocates would decry it as an assault on the working class. Sometimes you cannot win for losing!
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby Concerned » Sat 26 Jan 2008, 11:39:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'B')TW I'm perfectly fine with this. This is the way it SHOULD be honestly. A lot of liberals would say my gosh that is horrible most people would not be able to "afford" home ownership with a 50% down payment requirement. My answer to society would be if you can't afford it then maybe you don't deserve it! Don't you agree?
I definately agree with increased downpayments.

I also believe we should ELIMINATE money loaned at interest or seriously re-examine the current system that has seen 80% of the worlds wealth flow to 2% of the population. Look at the Blackwaters just loading companies up with debt.

I'm for strong international unions giving excellent working conditions and renumeration at the expense of corporate profits, rampant progress and inflated growth. You know I think the world can wait to have the next model BMW, iPod, PlayStation or Windows Vista.

I would aim for a society that has more equality and at the very least tackle the following on a global scale

1. Provide incentives to reduce breeding, tax breeding (children) heavily

2. Attempt to eliminate working poor. (Yes it's a relative term, some basic standard for work hours e.g. 40hrs per week, 4 weeks paid vacation, health care would be a basic minimum)

3. Forced work for people on welfare who can work. (Get able bodied welfare recipient's working on public projects that contribute to society, building roads, dams, re-claiming land, digging canals, Im sure other people have better ideas)

4. Devise ways to part the super wealthy (the top 2%) from their ill gotten gains. Tax private capital accumulation differently to publicly listed companies. Review inheritance laws (minefield lots of ways around these) Im sure there are plenty of ways of parting the rich and their money without having to get to a point of collapse and having to put their heads on a Pike. Let them eat cake !

Clearly I can't give you detailed policy on how any this would be achieved, as I don't have think tanks, corporate sponsorship, a political party etc...

Anyhow none of this matters I have an opinion and they are like my butt everyones got one and the current dominant paradigm of growth based capitalism with elements of socialism for the powerful nations will rule until it destroys the planet.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby cube » Sun 27 Jan 2008, 01:28:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', '[')I definately agree with increased downpayments.
No offense but you're not really saying much there. Considering people were getting 0% down payment loans how hard can it be to agree with me that we should expect a little more than 0%? LMAO

But like I said before without government intervention/corporate welfare down payment requirements would be 50% for a home loan. Would you be willing to accept this? I would.
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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby venky » Sun 27 Jan 2008, 15:05:50

I still think the greatest threat to capitalism still comes from infinite growth and resource depletion. Unless it can be reconciled with a steady state economy; it will fail in the end, that is a certainty.

IMO we have enough energy and resources to keep the current paradigm humming along till about 2030 abouts; after that unless human society looks drastically different and consumes far lower energy. This change might happen gradually over the next 2 decades for all I know. After that, with the decline in GDP and economic depression that is sure to happen, the new paradigms will either be 'protect the wealthy aka fascism' or 'spread the wealth aka communism'.

This humorous debate of capitalism/socialism will be moot.
I play the cards I'm dealt, though I sometimes bluff.

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Re: The Invisible Hand is At Your Throat

Unread postby Concerned » Sun 27 Jan 2008, 17:47:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'N')o offense but you're not really saying much there. Considering people were getting 0% down payment loans how hard can it be to agree with me that we should expect a little more than 0%? LMAO
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') also believe we should ELIMINATE money loaned at interest or seriously re-examine the current system that has seen 80% of the worlds wealth flow to 2% of the population. Look at the Blackwaters just loading companies up with debt.
Clearly Im open to a range of possibilities. $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut like I said before without government intervention/corporate welfare down payment requirements would be 50% for a home loan.
How sagacious of you. What are next weeks lottery numbers and daytime temps?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ould you be willing to accept this? I would.
I think if I'd be willing to drink hemlock, I guess I could live with a 50% down payment. But then again I am a cantankerous bastard.
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