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Pimentel & Patzek totally disputed by scientists ... Not

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Re: Pimental & Patzek totally debunked by scientists

Unread postby Heineken » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 16:27:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'B')ut then, the US has a tiny potential for biofuels compared to other regions.


Oh really? And I suppose you base that on your intimate, hands-on experience with US agriculture. We've got weeds here that would curl your hair.

You remind me of Hitler---confidently making all sorts of ignorant observations about a country he never visited.
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Re: Pimentel & Patzek totally debunked by scientists

Unread postby lorenzo » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 16:29:21

Common boys, yes, English is not my native language. But this is not about me, nor about my English skills.

Is that really all you can do? Trying to shoot the messenger. How poor. A real sign of the weak.


This is about the most credible and comprehensive fields study on cellulosic biofuel feedstocks.

And about how that study debunks your EROEI-gurus.



You're really showing you can't cope with science. Everything you've said so far is that a poster has no credibility because he puts a link to a scientific study in here. I understand why people don't really take you guys serious.
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Re: Pimental & Patzek totally debunked by scientists

Unread postby lorenzo » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 16:36:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'B')ut then, the US has a tiny potential for biofuels compared to other regions.


Oh really? And I suppose you base that on your intimate, hands-on experience with US agriculture. We've got weeds here that would curl your hair.

You remind me of Hitler---confidently making all sorts of ignorant observations about a country he never visited.


Heineken, you know I can back up everything I write with scientific studies. As I did so far in this thread. (See the PNAS study, see the German biomass-to-liquids study).

All you ever do is shout at people. I'm not interested in this type of kiddie conversation.

If you want to discuss energy topics, you have to be prepared to do a bit more effort.


About the bioenergy potential of the US as compared to that of Latin America and Africa, please consult:

Smeets, E., Faaij, A., Lewandowski, I. and Turkenburg, W. 2007. "A quickscan of global bioenergy potentials to 2050." Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, Volume 33, Issue 1, February, Pp 56-106.

Hoogwijk, M., Faaij, A., Eickhout, B., de Vries, B. and Turkenburg, W. 2005a. "Potential of biomass energy out to 2100, for four IPCC SRES land-use scenarios", Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 4, October, Pp. 225-257.

Berndes, G., Hoogwijk, M. and van den Broek, R. 2003. "The contribution of biomass in the future global energy supply: a review of 17 studies", Biomass and Bioenergy, Volume 25, Issue 1, July, Pp 1-28.

But really, these are the last references I'm giving in reply to a post of yours. You're not really mature enough to engage in a reasonable debate. The best you can do is play with mud.
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Re: Pimentel & Patzek totally debunked by scientists

Unread postby PopeGideon » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 16:57:56

Read it. Unimpressed.

These studies are all tainted with assumption.

You want to convince me?

Do this - it shouldn't be too difficult, with millions in taxpayer assistance.


Set up a farm that is entirely run on the ethanol it produces.

Entirely.

That's it. No petroleum input at all.


Perhaps start it out with oil in year 1.

Then wean off the oil within a few years.

What's that? You need petroleum inputs?

Then you're hardly "renewable."

Even with fertilizers and petroleum, I'd guess that the actual EROEI is substantially less than what is being claimed.

It's like the biosphere experiment where they put those people in the bubble. It all looks good on paper, but 6 months later they're all starving.

So set the farm up with a tractor that can run on ethanol, have it harvest its own hay, use fertilizer that it makes, and so on.

You start looking at it that way, and you realize very quickly that there are hundreds of hidden petroleum inputs into the system that papers such as the Schmer paper are ignoring.


It's all prideful eggheads and corporate pigs arguing on paper until somebody actually tries to make the whole thing sustainable by eliminating oil from it entirely.

Further, even if the Cornell and Cali guys are wrong about the negative EROEI, who cares?

In the end, we all know it's not about "is there some available?"

It's about, "how much does it cost?"

There'll always be some available. But if cellulosic ethanol costs 20 bucks a gallon to produce when oil is at 200 a barrel, then we might as well drink it and get some real value out of it.

This study, while ostensibly detailing all inputs, relies on significant assumptions.

If they want to remove the assumptions, they will remove the oil inputs.

Until then, biofuels are still a tragedy in the making.
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Re: Pimentel & Patzek totally debunked by scientists

Unread postby Permanently_Baffled » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 17:04:34

I am confused.

Going back to Aarons point, can you clarify something for me please Lorenzo? :)

Was the energy profit calculated on the return of 5,000 barrels per acre or 200,000 barrels per acre?

In other words if they put x barrels of energy inputs in and they calculated the profit on getting 200,000 back (when they in fact only got 5,000), then surely that means that they DID NOT get a 540% return in energy invested?

Or was the 5000 barrels produced at a 540% energy proft? (ie it took less than a 1000 barrels of energy equivelant to produce?)

Please someone clarify :)
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Re: Pimental & Patzek totally debunked by scientists

Unread postby Twilight » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 17:07:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'S')o I'm not so sure this is all merely "theoretical".

It is theoretical until commercially exploited on a scale sufficient to grab a significant share of national energy consumption. My threshold of proof is implementation.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'W')ell, for the US, we know how much. At least 16 billion gallons per year by 2022, to be precise. By law.

You make a point and shoot it down on the same line.
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Re: Pimentel & Patzek totally debunked by scientists

Unread postby quizz » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 17:14:15

Well this was on page 3 (reference 14 is Pimentel D, Patzek TW (2005):
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')A previous study (14) reported a negative energy balance for
ethanol derived from switchgrass by assuming that high levels of
agricultural inputs (Fig. 2) would be required, and that nonrenewable
energy would be needed to generate power for a
cellulosic ethanol biorefinery. Feasibility research indicates that
the lignaceous portion of plant biomass remaining after saccrification
and fermentation can be used to power the cellulosic
ethanol biorefinery and potentially could be used to generate
additional electricity to sell to the electrical grid as a byproduct.


Wow! That's a stretch from:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')imentel tried to comment, but he was silenced by the science community: "you screwed up once, there's no reason for us to listen to any of your other fantasies now."
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Re: Pimentel & Patzek totally debunked by scientists

Unread postby lorenzo » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 17:19:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Permanently_Baffled', 'I') am confused.

Going back to Aarons point, can you clarify something for me please Lorenzo? :)

Was the energy profit calculated on the return of 5,000 barrels per acre or 200,000 barrels per acre?

In other words if they put x barrels of energy inputs in and they calculated the profit on getting 200,000 back (when they in fact only got 5,000), then surely that means that they DID NOT get a 540% return in energy invested?

Or was the 5000 barrels produced at a 540% energy proft? (ie it took less than a 1000 barrels of energy equivelant to produce?)

Please someone clarify :)


I understand you are confused by Aaron's message.

But since Aaron has no point, it's useless to respond to a question based on Aaron's non-point.

There is no mention of "barrels per acre" in the study at all.

Aaron referred to a blogger who corrected a mistake made by a BBC journalist who reported about the study.

The BBC journalist tried to convert the efficiency of switchgrass as demonstrated in the study, into actual fuel yields expressed in barrels per acre.

The study has nothing to do with BBC mistakes or with bloggers who report these mistakes or with Peak Oil website owners who report about bloggers reporting BBC mistakes. Now what's the value of responding to your question? Zero.


To get rid of your confusion, the best thing you can do is read the study yourself.

The report is open access. Here you go:
http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/0704767105v1


So to answer your question: the scientists who wrote the study did not base their calculations of the NEV, NEY and BER on Aaron's reporting of a blogger reporting a mistake of a BBC journalist reporting on the study.

Scientists don't do that. :)
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Re: Pimental & Patzek totally debunked by scientists

Unread postby jbrovont » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 17:29:32

Hey - Let's put this in perspective! They're reporting a return on energy investment of about 5.4:1 - that's good! I think the number I hear tossed around for bio fuels is usually around 2:1 to 3:1, so 5.4:1 is a significant improvement.

On the other hand, oil is around 30-32:1, correct? So we're still short. You guys don't have to flame eachother over this. I don't think it's really an argument whether or not bio fuels fall short of black gold on energy return - it's obvious. I think it's reasonable to expect that as bio fuels are used and studied and produced more, there will be improvements in the process and the data, and we'll see a lot of adjustment in the numbers. We've got more than 100 years of data on oil, and not even a decade's worth on large scale bio fuel production.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'W')ait a minute, the fact that a BBC reporter can't read a scientific study is not my problem.

I strictly don't care about what a blogger thinks, nor what a BBC reporter thinks, not what amateurs like Pimental and Patzek think, nor about how they screw up or can't read studies, or how they try to twist science in favor of their amateurish fictions.

All I care about is scientific results. A large-scale trial in the main targeted growing area showed switchgrass biofuels have an NEV of 540%.

It doesn't matter what you try to do with these data. The data won't change just because you don't like them or because you write about them over at your amateur blog.

540%. That's all.
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Re: Pimentel & Patzek totally debunked by scientists

Unread postby lorenzo » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 17:30:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')here is no cellulosic ethanol production anywhere in the world.


Pstarr, let's define things first.

If you read "cellulosic ethanol" as the biochemical conversion of lignocellulosic biomass into ethanol, then you are right: there are only a dozen or so plants around, most of them pilots, only a handful large-scale (Abengoa's in Spain being one, Iogen's being another one, China has one).

If you read "cellulosic biofuels" as the thermochemical conversion of lignocellulosic biomass into gaseous and liquid fuels, there are tens of plants around.

If you read "cellulosic biofuels" as the biochemical conversion of lignocellulosic biomass into gaseous biofuel, then there are hundreds of plants around all producing biomethane commercially and on a large scale.
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Re: Pimental & Patzek totally debunked by scientists

Unread postby lorenzo » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 17:37:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbrovont', 'H')ey - Let's put this in perspective! They're reporting a return on energy investment of about 5.4:1 - that's good! I think the number I hear tossed around for bio fuels is usually around 2:1 to 3:1, so 5.4:1 is a significant improvement.

On the other hand, oil is around 30-32:1, correct? So we're still short. You guys don't have to flame eachother over this. I don't think it's really an argument whether or not bio fuels fall short of black gold on energy return - it's obvious. I think it's reasonable to expect that as bio fuels are used and studied and produced more, there will be improvements in the process and the data, and we'll see a lot of adjustment in the numbers. We've got more than 100 years of data on oil, and not even a decade's worth on large scale bio fuel production.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'W')ait a minute, the fact that a BBC reporter can't read a scientific study is not my problem.

I strictly don't care about what a blogger thinks, nor what a BBC reporter thinks, not what amateurs like Pimental and Patzek think, nor about how they screw up or can't read studies, or how they try to twist science in favor of their amateurish fictions.

All I care about is scientific results. A large-scale trial in the main targeted growing area showed switchgrass biofuels have an NEV of 540%.

It doesn't matter what you try to do with these data. The data won't change just because you don't like them or because you write about them over at your amateur blog.

540%. That's all.


Thanks for this lone rational voice. We really need more people like you.


I look at things in a long term perspective. When petroleum was first being introduced, people also said that the fuel was never going to replace horses and carts.

It just takes time.

Bioenergy and biofuels are an extremely young industry with breakthroughs and efficiency improvements being made each day in all aspects of the industry (plant sciences, engineering, bioconversion, etc...).

I just thought it to be useful to show that the pessimists and the fantasists are being proved wrong by science, every single day.



By the way, Craig Venter just created the first synthetic bacterial genome. This is step two of three in creating an entirely artificial biological organism. They key to unlimited biofuels. Breakthroughs are coming extremely fast.

I see the news hasn't been posted here yet, so I will do so.
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Re: Pimentel & Patzek totally debunked by scientists

Unread postby mkwin » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 17:52:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n the other hand, oil is around 30-32:1, correct?


Very little oil is likely to have an EROEI of 30 anymore. I have read somewhere the average EROEI for a refined petroleum product is around 15:1 dropping to less than 10:1 for offshore and 5-10:1 for ultra deep offshore.
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Re: Pimentel & Patzek totally debunked by scientists

Unread postby lorenzo » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 17:57:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lorenzo', 'T')o get rid of your confusion, the best thing you can do is read the study yourself.

The report is open access. Here you go:
http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/0704767105v1
I did read the abstract and it appears to have nothing to do with cellulosic ethanol production energy calculations. It merely refines previous switchgrass energy analysis for the final production of the woody material, perhaps suitable for direct combustion in a fireplace or steam locomotive. The bastards measure the inherent energy of a weed stalk and suggest it reflects the net energy of a liquid fuel. They intend this confusion and they have it. Yes, one does get a positive energy return from growing and burning stalks. No big deal.

Lorenzo, I regularly call you a troll. I take it back. You are just another hopeless dupe for the United States Department of Agriculture, corrupt bastards that they are.


Pstarr, ever thought of making a career move into standup comedy? I really like your humor! :-D Steam locomotive. Hilarious!


To others who also like Pstarr's humor, but who don't shy away from pretty basal science: the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America is so kind to keep this key study accessible to you as an open access article.

Kind of the National Academy, isn't it?
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Re: Pimentel & Patzek totally debunked by scientists

Unread postby lorenzo » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 17:59:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n the other hand, oil is around 30-32:1, correct?


Very little oil is likely to have an EROEI of 30 anymore. I have read somewhere the average EROEI for a refined petroleum product is around 15:1 dropping to less than 10:1 for offshore and 5-10:1 for ultra deep offshore.


I agree, you have to compare the commercial and technical feasibility of biofuels with the feasibility of difficult and new oil, not with old abundant dirt-cheap oil.

Ultra-deep offshore oil has both a pretty poor energy balance and costs quite a lot.

That's why investors are pouring so much money into biofuels, because they are already far cheaper than new oil.
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Re: Pimentel & Patzek totally debunked by scientists

Unread postby lorenzo » Fri 25 Jan 2008, 18:11:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')here is no cellulosic ethanol production anywhere in the world.


Pstarr, let's define things first.

If you read "cellulosic ethanol" as the biochemical conversion of lignocellulosic biomass into ethanol, then you are right: there are only a dozen or so plants around, most of them pilots, only a handful large-scale (Abengoa's in Spain being one, Iogen's being another one, China has one).
Non of these have shown they can produce ethanol for sale into a commercial liquid-fuel substitutes market. There has been no proof or even hint of success processes that would use biofchemical means to change cellulose into liquid fuel with out a loss of energy. They are investor scams at this point. Nothing more.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'I')f you read "cellulosic biofuels" as the thermochemical conversion of lignocellulosic biomass into gaseous and liquid fuels, there are tens of plants around.
You are dissassembling and distracting Lorenzo. Of course 'thermochemical' conversions of biomass is possible but as with the above biochemical processes there will be a loss in primary energy. Net energy:0

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'I')f you read "cellulosic biofuels" as the biochemical conversion of lignocellulosic biomass into gaseous biofuel, then there are hundreds of plants around all producing biomethane commercially and on a large scale.
ditto see above.

Lorenzo you have neglected to respond to my comment and questions above. You have not answered Baffled and others as well. I stand corrected. You are and always will remain a TROLL

But Pstarr, instead of calling each other trolls, why don't we relax?

All I did was to point at the energy balance of switchgrass as a feedstock for cellulosic ethanol.

I fully admit that the biochemical conversion of lignocellulosic biomass into ethanol is only commercially viable when oil is expensive (different studies show different results, but $80 is taken as the bar today; in a few years time, this will come down to $50).

You are right in saying that there are better conversion pathways for the use of biomass.

Cogeneration is the most efficient (at 85%). I'm sure you will agree here. That's also why I favor electric cars over ICE cars.

Biogas is pretty efficient too, both bio-SNG (synthetic natural gas based on thermochemical conversion of biomass; that is: gasification) and biogas based on anaerobic digestion. There are hundreds of plants in Europe that convert lignocellulosic biomass into biomethane.

So that's a cellulosic biofuel that is being produced on a large scale.


Now with the switchgrass study we have data about large-scale field trials, which show you can obtain a 540% energy return when you take into account the currently *inefficient* conversion into cellulosic ethanol (35% conversion efficiency only).

This means that your energy return for switchgrass will be much greater still when you use the energy crop for more efficient converion pathways, such as gasification, anaerobic digestion or combustion.

So just chill, I agree with you that biochemical conversion of lignocellulosic biomass is not highly efficient yet. On a field-to-tank basis, for switchgrass, you only get a net energy return of 540%. That's not spectacular, I agree.

In the future we will see better returns still.
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