[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e're going to do it this time because production is going to fall down and stay down.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '[')img]http://i.treehugger.com/files/chevy-volt-a01.jpg[/img]

The Chevrolet Volt.

40 mile battery range and a 150 MPG fuel economy at 60 miles/day.

Is your commute less than 40 miles both way? You'll never burn a drop of oil getting to work.

That's 80% of America, folks.

And this baby hits the streets in a year or two with a starting production capacity that is 10 times the level of the starting production capacity of the Prius.

Moreover, it can run on E85 ethanol (if you want to bother) and I'm sure that later models will include other forms of biofuel as well. That assumes that anyone actually needs to drive more than 40 miles one way on a daily basis.

Cost to build/retool the ENTIRE US auto manufacturing capacity AND all of the manufacturing capacity of the plants that we import our cars from?

$60-$80 billion. Also known as a rounding error in the broaden scheme of things. We spend about a trillion dollars per year on cars already, what's another 6%? Especially when you consider that it's a one time charge.

We haven't touched our ability to conserve oil.

[dorlomin]

High oil prices did not create the credit bubble, I dont really think it had more than a perhipheral role in the current downturn.

Demand destruction is likely to be most pronounced in the airline industry, followed by a large switch to smaller cars, although widescale economic problems may in effect "lock in" many families to there gas guzzlers.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'W')e're going to do it this time because production is going to fall down and stay down.

The decline in global oil production is going to put a floor under oil prices and force us to get serious about alternatives.

And not a minute too soon.

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

The Chevrolet Volt.

40 mile battery range and a 150 MPG fuel economy at 60 miles/day.


I'd like to know how many people could afford one of those, as usual with this type of bullshit the price was strangley left out of the equasion.

[LoneSnark]

Well, it is three years away, I am sure they have no idea how much the thing will cost. In addition, they have no idea what they can charge for the thing (since the two are not always related).

As for mos:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '9')6% of all mortgages are being paid on time. Thirty percent of American homeowners have no mortgage. Delinquency rates were higher in the 1980s than they are today. Only 2 to 3 percent of all mortgages are in foreclosure.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'W')ell, it is three years away, I am sure they have no idea how much the thing will cost. In addition, they have no idea what they can charge for the thing (since the two are not always related).

[evilgenius]

If the recession doesn't work as advertised how long will it take an actor like Russia to realize that the only answer is to eliminate the United States from the peak equations?

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e're going to do it this time because production is going to fall down and stay down.

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Battle_Scarred_Galactico', '[')b]The Chevrolet Volt.

40 mile battery range and a 150 MPG fuel economy at 60 miles/day.


I'd like to know how many people could afford one of those, as usual with this type of bullshit the price was strangley left out of the equation.

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'W')e're going to do it this time because production is going to fall down and stay down.

The decline in global oil production is going to put a floor under oil prices and force us to get serious about alternatives.

And not a minute too soon.

[benzoil]

Tyler-
Where does the $80 billion pricetag come from? That number sounds awfully low given that it's costing the U.S. $150 billion just to mail everyone an $800 tax rebate.

I don't disagree with you that efforts will be made to adapt and there will be some successes, but I don't think it's going to be all that painless economically.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'W')e're going to do it this time because production is going to fall down and stay down.

The decline in global oil production is going to put a floor under oil prices and force us to get serious about alternatives.

And not a minute too soon.

[LoneSnark]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here will be a new economy of course, but it can't be based on growth anymore, and that changes everything. It will be an economy of things getting smaller and fewer.

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ould it be that oil was trading at $20/barrel or less for most of your adult life?

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ould it be that oil was trading at $20/barrel or less for most of your adult life?

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('benzoil', 'T')yler-
Where does the $80 billion pricetag come from? That number sounds awfully low given that it's costing the U.S. $150 billion just to mail everyone an $800 tax rebate.

I don't disagree with you that efforts will be made to adapt and there will be some successes, but I don't think it's going to be all that painless economically.

[benzoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('benzoil', 'T')yler-
Where does the $80 billion pricetag come from? That number sounds awfully low given that it's costing the U.S. $150 billion just to mail everyone an $800 tax rebate.

I don't disagree with you that efforts will be made to adapt and there will be some successes, but I don't think it's going to be all that painless economically.

[Tyler_JC]

1.Your inflated $600 billion figure is roughly what we already spend on cars every year.

I am perfectly content to devote $600 billion a year towards automobile consumption because...we already do it.

2. I never said they have to pay it off in one year. I said that the cost to build enough plants to build 16 million cars a year is $64 billion.

I often hear from doomers that retrofitting our industry is impossible because it would cost trillions of dollars. Well I've just proven that building the plants is cheap. Even if I'm off by 100 billion dollars, it's still cheaper than Bush's economic stimulus plan.

3. I don't care what the taxes are, what the design fees are, building costs, production costs, etc. All of that stuff is already included in every single other car on the road today. I'm not saying that electric cars will be free, I'm saying that they are going to cost the same amount of money (or less money) than every other car on the road RIGHT NOW.

The only difference between an electric car and a Chevy Suburban is that we have the plants to build a Suburban, we don't have the plants to build a Volt. Fine, spend the $64 billion and build a 16 million car/year capacity to do just that.

4. The average sticker price on a new car was $30,000 in 2004. The Chevy Volt will retail for something similar. Even if the Volt was as inefficient as your average Chevy Trailblazer, the world wouldn't be significantly worse off because the money is already being spent. Instead, we can redirect it towards far more efficient cars and cut down on wasted energy expenses dramatically.

As for 5 years being a long time to wait...is oil going to run out tomorrow? Next year?

And that 5 years assumes new construction, the more likely scenario is a cheaper and faster retrofit of existing infrastructure.

[Heineken]

Those billions you throw around, Tyler! We'll be standing in bread lines, not lining up at the debt store for Volt notes to replace our Suburbans.

Perhaps there will be an electric-car fleet in the future, but its size will be a tiny fraction of today's IC fleet.

It's the infrastructure. That's the biggest flaw in your thinking. Batteries can't build and maintain roads, perpetuate the vast networks of shopping strips, or stock their shelves. Many of the roads of the future will be roads to nowhere.

You are stuck in the current model, Tyler. A model that evolved in lockstep with development of the once-in-history, fossil energy bonanza. You seem to think that the model has all interchangeable parts, that can be smoothly replaced indefinitely to keep the same basic dinosaur lumbering on forever.

Also, your thinking seems divorced from other looming resource constraints, mass environmental degradation, and global warming. These factors will have huge economic impacts that will permanently undermine the feasibility of your giant fleet of Volts.