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The Spreading Global Food Crisis Thread pt 2 (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Food Depletion Statistics

Unread postby steam_cannon » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 03:58:05

I usually come across an article regarding this every year and every year it's worse. Grain stocks are a pretty good indicator of food depletion as grains are used in most products and meat prices are pretty strongly linked. Of course grain production for Ethanol may seem to skew these numbers, but I don't think it does. We choose to produce fuel from our food, and then the food becomes scarce. That's still qualifies as a shortage, even if it is due to mismanagement and fall out from other energy shortage problems. There have been tortilla riots in Mexico this year due to ethanol hiking up prices...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('energybulletin', '
')World Grain Stocks Fall to 57 Days of Consumption: Grain Prices Starting to Rise (2006)

This year’s world grain harvest is projected to fall short of consumption by 61 million tons, marking the sixth time in the last seven years that production has failed to satisfy demand. As a result of these shortfalls, world carryover stocks at the end of this crop year are projected to drop to 57 days of consumption, the shortest buffer since the 56-day-low in 1972 that triggered a doubling of grain prices.

http://www.energybulletin.net/17261.html
This may be what you're looking for...

And I'm going to post a little more about the the problems with food production today. I think some information for predictive purposes might be useful, since it may give you an idea of where these "food depletion statistics" are headed.

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Since food for fuel is part of this issue, here is an article on Ethanol production

The Ethanol Effect - Why corn-based fuel isn't our miracle cure for oil dependency
http://www.peakoil.com/modules.php?name ... ic&t=34339

Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'U')S Cropland: 442 million acres (20 percent of the land area)

1 bushel of corn yields 2.5 gallons of ethanol.

1 acre yields 160 bushels. (All-time record in 2004.)

1 acre yields 400 gallons of ethanol (2.5 x 160).

One gallon net takes 3 to produce (optimistic EROEI of 1.34 to 1 so
400/4 = 100)

442 million acres x 100 = 44.2 billion gallons net return

Ethanol has less energy density 44.2/1.5 = 29.5 billion gallons net ethanol

We use 144 billion gallons of gasoline per year

29.5 is 19% of 157 billion demand.

To summarize: we could plant the entire US cropland in corn for ethanol. No more food for anyone and

that would only account for 19% of our gasoline needs.

http://peakoil.com/modules.php?name=For ... ic&t=34384

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And here are a few links that suggest what we have to look forward to:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '
')Presently with our good weather, the world is drawing down stored grain to make up for demand.
ImageImage
http://www.energybulletin.net/17261.html
How low can food production go down before there are shortages and ultimately famine. It's been suggested that if we can still ship food we could all get by with only 50% production. Personally, I'm not so optimistic.


Warmer Earth may slash farm yields
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16042134/

Image
America’s Breadbasket Moves to Canada (2006 Article)
http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2006/1 ... to-canada/

James Lovelock: “We are on the edge of the greatest die-off humanity has ever seen,” said Lovelock. “We will be lucky if 20% of us survive what is coming. "

Fiddling with figures while the Earth burns
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/u ... 751509.ece

Climate Change “Three Times Faster Than Worst Predictions” (2007 Article)
by the US National Academy of Sciences
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/06 ... faster.php

Global Dimming and extreme climate change
"But perhaps the most alarming aspect of global dimming is that it may have led scientists to underestimate the true power of the greenhouse effect."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4171591.stm

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A few other relevant articles

The oil we eat
For every 1 calories on your dinner plate 10 calories of oil was burnt.
http://www.ofbyandfor.org/node/view/285

The Deffeyes Date: Peak Oil Was 16 December 2005
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/02 ... es_da.html

Peak Natural Gas
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2005/11 ... ral_ga.php
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/gas/

Natural gas--the next fossil fuel shortage?
http://www.energybulletin.net/6994.html

Fertilizer Prices Soar
"The cost of anhydrous ammonia has nearly doubled, due to the skyrocketing price of natural gas, which is used to manufacture the popular nitrogen fertilizer."
http://nationalhogfarmer.com/mag/farmin ... lue_rises/

Rising world fertiliser prices threaten Vietnamese rice production
http://africanagriculture.blogspot.com/ ... eaten.html

High energy prices inflate fertilizer costs
http://southwestfarmpress.com/news/0205 ... ertilizer/

Fertilizer cost forces farmers to improvise
http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2003/0 ... -Farm.html

Rising prices for fuel, fertilizer hurts farmers
http://www.usatoday.com/money/2005-09-1 ... mers_x.htm

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I hope some of that helped to understand Food Depletion trends... :-D
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Re: Food Depletion Statistics

Unread postby steam_cannon » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 05:42:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NTBKtrader', 'H')ow much domestic production is consumed in each country versus imported
By the way, here is another interesting article food production and import statistics for the US...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gristmill', '
')U.S. about to become net food importer
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/2/9/211544/4045

I like to eat great cheeses and wines from France and Italy, and I enjoy tropical fruits in the middle of winter. When the U.S. was a dominant food supplier, this seemed rather like the natural order of things. But now U.S. imports of meat and grains -- to name two commodities that used to be our strength -- are rising. America now imports two dollars of feed grains for every three dollars of exports, and imports $2.5 billion more red meats than it exports, ERS data show.
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Re: Food Depletion Statistics

Unread postby NTBKtrader » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 21:04:50

awesome all very helpful thank you thank you!!!
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Re: Food Depletion Statistics

Unread postby seahorse » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 21:31:09

Are there any public companies trading on the stock exchange that are agricultural producers of either corn, wheat or rice? If so, I would appreciate any names you have and recommendations.
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Who is responsible for the world food shortage?

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 26 Dec 2007, 22:41:41

Ten to twelve pivotal companies, assisted by another three dozen, run the world's food supply. They are the key components of the Anglo-Dutch-Swiss food cartel, which is grouped around Britain's House of Windsor. Led by the six leading grain companies—Cargill, Continental, Louis Dreyfus, Bunge and Born, Andre, and Archer Daniels Midland/Topfer—the Windsor-led food and raw materials cartel has complete domination over world cereals and grains supplies, from wheat to corn and oats, from barley to sorghum and rye. But it also controls meat, dairy, edible oils and fats, fruits and vegetables, sugar, and all forms of spices.

http://www.larouchepub.com/other/1995/2 ... intro.html
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Re: Who is responsible for the world food shortage?

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Wed 26 Dec 2007, 22:46:41

LaRouche isn't always considered the most objective source .....

He's not even pointing a finger at the Jews! :twisted:
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Re: Who is responsible for the world food shortage?

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 26 Dec 2007, 22:52:57

Nice corporate link chart - thought I would put it out there. Not many sources, period, for links between TPTB. Also the individual profiles for Big-Agribusiness Corporations are factually informative.

OPEC is not the only Cartel on the planet.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Re: Who is responsible for the world food shortage?

Unread postby Opies » Thu 27 Dec 2007, 00:10:02

nature is responsible for food shortage. If someone doesn't starve, you get population growth... like we have now.
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Re: Who is responsible for the world food shortage?

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Thu 27 Dec 2007, 00:38:35

good one Opies!
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Re: Who is responsible for the world food shortage?

Unread postby TommyJefferson » Thu 27 Dec 2007, 00:50:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', 'T')en to twelve pivotal companies, assisted by another three dozen, run the world's food supply. They are the key components of the Anglo-Dutch-Swiss food cartel, which is grouped around Britain's House of Windsor. Led by the six leading grain companies—Cargill, Continental, Louis Dreyfus, Bunge and Born, Andre, and Archer Daniels Midland/Topfer—the Windsor-led food and raw materials cartel has complete domination over world cereals and grains supplies, from wheat to corn and oats, from barley to sorghum and rye. But it also controls meat, dairy, edible oils and fats, fruits and vegetables, sugar, and all forms of spices.


So what?
Conform . Consume . Obey .
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Re: Who is responsible for the world food shortage?

Unread postby kadoomsoon » Thu 27 Dec 2007, 11:39:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', 'T')en to twelve pivotal companies, assisted by another three dozen, run the world's food supply. They are the key components of the Anglo-Dutch-Swiss food cartel, which is grouped around Britain's House of Windsor. Led by the six leading grain companies—Cargill, Continental, Louis Dreyfus, Bunge and Born, Andre, and Archer Daniels Midland/Topfer—the Windsor-led food and raw materials cartel has complete domination over world cereals and grains supplies, from wheat to corn and oats, from barley to sorghum and rye. But it also controls meat, dairy, edible oils and fats, fruits and vegetables, sugar, and all forms of spices.


They will never dominate the world completely.
We eat nothing that isnt grown ourselves or grown locally. They are weaklings and their plan of monopoly will fail.
I turn my back to them.
After peak oil takes them out, they will expire and I will not.
How Ironic.
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Re: Food Depletion Statistics

Unread postby sparky » Thu 27 Dec 2007, 20:04:57

.

IMHO all the links were a bit self serving , for the real stuff go to Mama :-D

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/index.htm

http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/We ... /index.htm

http://www.fas.usda.gov/currwmt.asp

If you dig around the site and the links there is some excellent stats
this is the mother of all agricultural statistics all the rest derive from it
The important stuff in decreasing order is
Wheat , rice , coarse grains , corn and potatoes

the last harvest has been a disaster , both north and south
harvest cycle is six month in front of the price cycle , the "growing season " is also a bit different for some but generally understood to be from the first of june to the end of may ,
the biggest exporters are U.S. Canada , Australia , Argentina

the current price madness has many causes , the 2008/09 harvest so far , promise to be a bumper with a price collapse

there is a phosphate peak on the horizon and to be sure we are driving over a cliff , food wise it will all happen in the fullness of time , the poors will oscillate between malnutrition and starvation ,
The richs between normality and expensive steaks
there will be more and more poors and they will get closer to the front door :(

.
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The Spreading Global Food Crisis Thread pt 2 (merged)

Unread postby mattduke » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 17:01:57

"A new crisis is emerging, a global food catastrophe that will reach further and be more crippling than anything the world has ever seen. The credit crunch and the reverberations of soaring oil prices around the world will pale in comparison to what is about to transpire, Donald Coxe, global portfolio strategist at BMO Financial Group said at the Empire Club's 14th annual investment outlook in Toronto on Thursday.

"It's not a matter of if, but when," he warned investors. "It's going to hit this year hard."

financialpost


Also...


"Japan, the world's biggest grain importer, plans to increase emergency stockpiles of corn, wheat and soybeans next year to ensure stable supplies at a time of soaring global prices, the Yomiuri newspaper reported."

bloomberg
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Re: "Forget oil, the new global crisis is food"

Unread postby Madpaddy » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 17:08:59

oil crisis, food crisis, pollution crisis, global warming crisis.

All just seperate ingredients of the one shit pie.
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Re: "Forget oil, the new global crisis is food"

Unread postby FireJack » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 18:41:21

This is what Richard Weinburg has been talking about, even if we solve the energy problem there are about 5-6 very serious problems coming together at once, hence the die-off. I think those who are healthy, mentally well, and self-sufficient will do the best.

I'm guessing the rest will die or join a slave plantation of some sort.
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Re: "Forget oil, the new global crisis is food"

Unread postby dorlomin » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 19:02:02

If Japan intends a big increase is stockpiles then it will likely be yet another factor increasing prices next year bringing famine closer for many of the worlds poorest. But I guess it is an acceptable means of using there dollars for something more worthwhile than US treasury bonds.
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Re: "Forget oil, the new global crisis is food"

Unread postby billp » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 21:03:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak oil overthrows green revolution


cheers.

From us cats
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Re: "Forget oil, the new global crisis is food"

Unread postby uNkNowN ElEmEnt » Fri 04 Jan 2008, 23:37:19

So what do you guys think the chances are of the US replacing oil as the base value of the dollar with corn or food? Mind you they do have problems with water supply.

But if the price of water (with the addition of water meters) rises in price then swimming pools will go empty and food will become the new gold.
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Re: "Forget oil, the new global crisis is food"

Unread postby cube » Sat 05 Jan 2008, 00:13:31

EVERYBODY there is no need to worry!

This is where those "perpetual growth" economists jump in and say things like:
"As a resource becomes scarce and thus expensive, an alternative will be found." :wink:
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If you own stock in a health fitness/ weight loss company right now would be a good time to put your money elsewhere. :lol:
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Re: "Forget oil, the new global crisis is food"

Unread postby LoneSnark » Sat 05 Jan 2008, 02:48:47

Yes, it is much more plausible to proclaim that just because we do things one way today it is the only way things can ever be done.
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