by steam_cannon » Wed 28 Nov 2007, 03:58:05
I usually come across an article regarding this every year and every year it's worse. Grain stocks are a pretty good indicator of food depletion as grains are used in most products and meat prices are pretty strongly linked. Of course grain production for Ethanol may seem to skew these numbers, but I don't think it does. We choose to produce fuel from our food, and then the food becomes scarce. That's still qualifies as a shortage, even if it is due to mismanagement and fall out from other energy shortage problems. There have been tortilla riots in Mexico this year due to ethanol hiking up prices...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('energybulletin', '
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World Grain Stocks Fall to 57 Days of Consumption: Grain Prices Starting to Rise (2006)This year’s world grain harvest is projected to fall short of consumption by 61 million tons,
marking the sixth time in the last seven years that production has failed to satisfy demand. As a result of these shortfalls, world carryover stocks at the end of this crop year are projected to drop to 57 days of consumption, the shortest buffer since the 56-day-low in 1972 that triggered a doubling of grain prices.
http://www.energybulletin.net/17261.htmlThis may be what you're looking for...
And I'm going to post a little more about the the problems with food production today. I think some information for predictive purposes might be useful, since it may give you an idea of where these "food depletion statistics" are headed.
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Since food for fuel is part of this issue, here is an article on Ethanol productionThe Ethanol Effect - Why corn-based fuel isn't our miracle cure for oil dependency
http://www.peakoil.com/modules.php?name ... ic&t=34339
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'U')S Cropland: 442 million acres (20 percent of the land area)
1 bushel of corn yields 2.5 gallons of ethanol.
1 acre yields 160 bushels. (All-time record in 2004.)
1 acre yields 400 gallons of ethanol (2.5 x 160).
One gallon net takes 3 to produce (optimistic EROEI of 1.34 to 1 so
400/4 = 100)
442 million acres x 100 = 44.2 billion gallons net return
Ethanol has less energy density 44.2/1.5 = 29.5 billion gallons net ethanol
We use 144 billion gallons of gasoline per year
29.5 is 19% of 157 billion demand.
To summarize: we could plant the entire US cropland in corn for ethanol. No more food for anyone and
that
would only account for 19% of our gasoline needs.
http://peakoil.com/modules.php?name=For ... ic&t=34384 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
')Presently with our good weather, the world is drawing down stored grain to make up for demand.
How low can food production go down before there are shortages and ultimately famine. It's been suggested that if we can still ship food we could all get by with only 50% production. Personally, I'm not so optimistic.