[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '^')
When I say "non-peak oiler" I mean someone who doesn't think oil production will peak any time in the foreseeable future. Or if it does, it will peak because a better alternative has been found.

Who knows - maybe they'll perfect a viable electric car someday and develop fusion power, and therefore oil production will decline because oil demand will decline. A "non-peak oiler" might hold a view like that. And/or perhaps they believe there is still another several trillion barrels of recoverable oil left in the ground, and therefore we don't have to worry about oil production peaking for a very, very long time.

[Oil-Finder]

thuja, as I said I am very well versed on this from many debates on other internet forums. I've been doing this for at least 3-4 years.

No, CERA does not believe the peak is "imminent," in fact they say it's more like 30-40 years. I suspect that's also the case with some of the others on your list.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', 't')huja, as I said I am very well versed on this from many debates on other internet forums. I've been doing this for at least 3-4 years.

No, CERA does not believe the peak is "imminent," in fact they say it's more like 30-40 years. I suspect that's the case with some of the others on your list.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'm')ost people who are realistic say we are in the plateau phase right now and perhaps have only a few years to go before serious declines set in.

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')I'm sorry did you read the page you sent me? Here's a quote...

"The new report describes CERA’s liquids supply outlook as “not a view of endless abundance.” However, based on a range of potential scenarios and field-by-field analysis, CERA finds that not only will world oil production not peak before 2030"


2030. That's 22 years away. And CERA are the most "wild eyed" optimistic of the bunch. Again. Not a very very long time. Have another citation?

[joewp]

I said "No", but really I don't have any choice. It's gonna happen whether we want it or not.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', 'I')t is you who did not read it.

It says, "oil production not peak before 2030." In other words, it will peak after 2030. 22 years is just a bare minimum, after which production will plateau for quite a while.

This is hardly the "imminent" scenario you depicted them as saying.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'm')ost people who are realistic say we are in the plateau phase right now and perhaps have only a few years to go before serious declines set in.

[Oil-Finder]

thuja-

Well this is getting off-topic.

I never got the impression that the graph on CERA's link was supposed to be taken literally, bump-for-bump. They show a period until around 2030 or so when production will increase, and then after wards it will be an "undulating plateau." Some of those "undulations" could be new peaks sometime after 2030.

I don't find it too hard to believe they can find 5 new Saudi Arabia's. In fact, if you include unconventional sources, I can find you much more than that.

But I'll save that for another thread.

[Revi]

Peak oil is already ocurring. I think that we could live just as good a life with a lot less oil, if we wanted to. Some will adapt, and a lot won't. I am a bit distressed at how badly my country is managing the transition, but with new leadership we might be in a better position.

I voted no on the question, but I think that whether we want it to occur isn't what matters.

I am pretty sure that the captain of the Titanic wouldn't have chosen the iceberg.

What matters now is the grace with which we deal with the calamities that are sure to befall all of us.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', 't')huja-

Well this is getting off-topic.

I never got the impression that the graph on CERA's link was supposed to be taken literally, bump-for-bump. They show a period until around 2030 or so when production will increase, and then after wards it will be an "undulating plateau." Some of those "undulations" could be new peaks sometime after 2030.

I don't find it too hard to believe they can find 5 new Saudi Arabia's. In fact, if you include unconventional sources, I can find you much more than that.

But I'll save that for another thread.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'I') should make myself more plain when I say serious declines- by that I mean anywhere from 2-4% per year.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'I') should make myself more plain when I say serious declines- by that I mean anywhere from 2-4% per year.

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')Well some very smart minds have been contemplating it. Here's some links:

A little complex but a good read...he discusses production erosion and its effects:
http://www.321energy.com/editorials/oil ... 2007B.html

You can also find it at
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3203

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')Well some very smart minds have been contemplating it. Here's some links:

A little complex but a good read...he discusses production erosion and its effects:
http://www.321energy.com/editorials/oil ... 2007B.html

You can also find it at
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3203

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')Of the largest 21 fields, about 9 are already in decline.[52] Mexico announced that its giant Cantarell Field entered depletion in March, 2006,[53] as did the huge Burgan field in Kuwait in November, 2005.[54] Due to past overproduction, Cantarell is now declining rapidly, at a rate of 13% per year.[55] In April, 2006, a Saudi Aramco spokesman admitted that its mature fields are now declining at a rate of 8% per year, and its composite decline rate of producing fields is about 2%

[thuja]

Those new projects are wonderful, because they offset the rapid declines happening in the major fields. But as you can see by the flattening of worldwide production, its getting harder and harder for those new projects to keep up with the rapid decline.

If it weren't for these new projects, we would experience a dramatic worldwide decline rate. That was the point of the article I suggested reading. For example, Cantarell- one of the largest fields in the world, is declining at a 13% rate per year. There are only a few of these big boys in the world. Another is Burgan in Kuwait (declining) and Ghawar in Saudi Arabia (most likely declining).

We have not made a discovery of a massive field like these for decades. We are now exploting a lot of smaller fields and working on the harder to access and more difficult to refine fields.

All of this leads to some very scary prospects. Like I said, if it weren''t for those new fields you are talking about we may be looking at decline rates in the double digits.

[wisconsin_cur]

Concerning the... difficulty of putting together hard numbers for the mega projects please check out this oil drum article.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')owever, a number of people suggested to us in email that an additional confounding factor is that the megaproject lists we were relying on had enough issues that one should hesitate to draw conclusions from them. Although the jury is still out on this question, there does seem to be some evidence for the idea. It would be understandable - maintaining a megaproject list is a mammoth task for any one person in their spare time.

As a result, Khebab and I decided last week to start an open megaprojects list. We're doing this in the form of a Wikipedia page, since

* The Wikipedia already has collaborative editing facilities, allowing anyone motivated to help fix and extend the list
* it makes the list broadly accessible, since it's of potentially general and lasting importance
* it helps us move in the direction of improving Wikipedia coverage of peak oil (by enlarging the corpus of TODers that know how to work on Wiki pages something Ransu urged last week).

You can see our effort so far over at the Wikipedia. Be warned that the page is presently in active construction; it's incomplete, inconsistent, and changing very frequently. In particular, at the time of writing, we are ranked #88 for most actively edited Wikipedia pages at wikirage.

[Oil-Finder]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
')We have not made a discovery of a massive field like these for decades.

[dinopello]

I think the problem is when you assign and figure in a probability for each of those new production events in the timeframe predicted, it turns out to not be all that much in the scheme of things.