[seahorse]

Here's what I find interesting about both SA and Russian oil production - neither country has ever produced more than what they produced in the late 70's or early 80s, whichever it is, thus, one could argue that in no circumstances will they ever exceed that level.

[gg3]

Interesting point, Seahorse. This would seem to suggest that in each country, production managers were aware of certain hard limits and acted prudently with that knowledge.

However...

It seems to me that Saudi has had a greater degree of political continuity between the late 70s and today, than the USSR/Russia. In the latter case, there would have had to be continuity of knowledge and technical management of the resource, about which I'm skeptical.

I have no doubt that Putin keeps a close eye on reserves and production figures, and is calculating them into his overall chess game. Whatever happens with Russian output is a matter of strategic policy, from which one can make inferences as to intentions.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', '
')It seems to me that Saudi has had a greater degree of political continuity between the late 70s and today, than the USSR/Russia. In the latter case, there would have had to be continuity of knowledge and technical management of the resource, about which I'm skeptical.

[roccman]

Russian oil firm Rosneft will follow the lead of Gazprom and LUKOIL to sell crude in rubles amid the ongoing depreciation of the dollar.

[KillTheHumans]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '[')url=http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=34978&sectionid=3510213]Russian oil firm Rosneft will follow the lead of Gazprom and LUKOIL to sell crude in rubles amid the ongoing depreciation of the dollar.[/url]

[cube]

Saddam Hussein was truly ahead of his time.

To refresh people's memory he was "the First" major oil player to dump the dollar. Unfortunately (for Saddam) he was in the wrong place at the wrong time within world history.

However jumping to the present I think it is China and not any oil producer that is the true linchpin of dollar hegemony.

[heroineworshipper]

Guess Hillary will destroy Russia after destroying Iran for switching to gold. The precious juice will be ours, one way or another.

[Denny]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '[')url=http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=34978&sectionid=3510213]Russian oil firm Rosneft will follow the lead of Gazprom and LUKOIL to sell crude in rubles amid the ongoing depreciation of the dollar.[/url]

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heroineworshipper', 'G')uess Hillary will destroy Russia after destroying Iran for switching to gold. The precious juice will be ours, one way or another.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heroineworshipper', 'G')uess Hillary will destroy Russia after destroying Iran for switching to gold. The precious juice will be ours, one way or another.

[I_Like_Plants]

This should get interesting - we can't exactly invade and take over Russia. We're likely to get our asses kicked just taking on Iran.

[jasonraymondson]

the us is going to go to war soon! World war 3 is just around the corner!

[shakespear1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Its not a matter of being pro or anti-American, its just common sense.')

Exactly !!!! This is a business, not a love relationship.

When the ruble was weak most people in Russia wanted to hold the dollar. With time that changed to the EURO as they saw that holding the dollar was a loosing relationship. Now I suspect the desire to go into the EURO may perhaps not be as strong as the ruble in its own right is a strong currency.

The same is happening with Polish Zloty. I never imagined that it would be as strong as it is right now. However this story is based on future expectations and not on energy resources in the ground.

[hubbertspeak7777777]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', 't')he us is going to go to war soon! World war 3 is just around the corner!

[Zardoz]

Once again, we're right:

Russian Oil Output May Fall for First Time in Decade in 2008

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ussian oil output may fall this year for the first time in a decade as the world's second-biggest supplier struggles with rising costs and harder-to-reach fields, Natural Resources Minister Yuri Trutnev said.

"Two years ago, we said the growth rate was falling, and we said this was bad for Russia, remember?'' Trutnev said in televised remarks after a government meeting in Moscow today. "Now we're saying the production rate is falling this year. This is not a bogeyman, unfortunately, this is real,'' Trutnev said, without giving a specific forecast.

A decline would end a 10-year, 58 percent surge in production, which fell to 6.2 million barrels a day in 1998, when prices dipped below $10 a barrel and Russia defaulted on about $40 billion of domestic debt and devalued the ruble.

Trutnev's outlook contradicts that of the Energy Ministry, which expects an increase of 1.8 percent to 10 million barrels a day of crude and gas condensate, or about 11 percent of world consumption. The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 27 industrialized nations, expects demand to rise 2 percent this year to 87.54 million barrels a day.

Investment bank Credit Suisse Group today joined Moscow- based UralSib Financial Corp. in forecasting an annual decline in Russian production after output slid in January and February.

'Difficult Start'

"The difficult start to the year indicated that the situation in the Russian oil sector is perhaps much more challenging than major integrated oil companies believed at the end of last year,'' Credit Suisse analysts Vadim Mitroshin and Lev Snykov wrote in a note to clients today.

Output fell 0.7 percent in January and 0.9 percent in February, to 9.79 million barrels a day, compared with the same months last year, according to Energy Ministry data. Saudi Arabia is the world's biggest producer of crude oil.

Zurich-based Credit Suisse said it now expects output to fall 0.5 percent, after earlier predicting a 0.7 percent rise.

"National production has reached a plateau and onshore production appears to be in decline,'' said Ronald Smith, chief strategist at Alfa Bank, by phone in Moscow today.

[joeltrout]

For more info check out the Oilwatch Monthly over at The Oil Drum.

joeltrout

[Ferretlover]

Well. Now we Know why Putin is so actively courting Venezeula and Iran.

[anarky321]

if russian production starts falling you can kiss that foreign investment goodbye

im moving back to russia this summer, but i hate what its become, a sick imitation of US consumerism

i want the early 90's Russia back, and that means foreign investment needs to dry up and oil output needs to start falling

tick tock, Medvedev

[Jericho]

Russia will become the world's wealthiest country over the next decade due to it's resource riches. It will also be one of the best placed countries for riding out the peak oil storm due to it's energy self-sufficiency. Moving back there would be a smart move.

[anarky321]

wealthiest country in the world over the next decade?

absolutely not

russia has oil, natural gas, coal and gold

everything else will be of marginal utility in a global depression

natural gas and oil are going to go on the decline soon

with domestic consumption of energy soaring russian exports of energy will decline as the depletion rates catch up to the soaring consumption

domestic energy is sold at subsidized prices

where is the wealth going to come from?

per capita wealthiest country i would look to UAE, Kuwait, Qatar but not Russia

Russia has gotten much wealthier in the last 2 decades but this wealth has not trickled down to the underclasses, it mostly goes into building more villas in the Moscow suburbs (most expensive city in the world)

what Russia can hope for is a stable economy while US and EU plunge into a serious depression, but its not going to get wealthy in a decade of global depression

in any case like i said its got a decade worth of 'good times' left and then its back to sh*T