Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby Aaron » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 13:34:36

Image
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

Hazel Henderson
User avatar
Aaron
Resting in Peace
 
Posts: 5998
Joined: Thu 15 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Houston

Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby Narz » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 13:55:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '[')img]http://www.peakoil.com/images/forumicons/forum_troll.jpg[/img]

I haven't noticed a significant increase in the cost of toilet paper.
“Seek simplicity but distrust it”
User avatar
Narz
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2360
Joined: Sat 25 Nov 2006, 04:00:00
Location: the belly of the beast (New Jersey)

Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby Narz » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 13:57:26

Besides, if it ever gets too expensive people will simply coordinate their shittin' & shower times a bit more carefully. :lol:
“Seek simplicity but distrust it”
User avatar
Narz
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2360
Joined: Sat 25 Nov 2006, 04:00:00
Location: the belly of the beast (New Jersey)

Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby TonyPrep » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 14:19:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 't')he tar sands which can support more than 5 mbpd
From the estimates I've seen, 5 mbpd is optimistic. This seems reasonable, given that the best deposits are already being mined. As the deposits become poorer, it will take more effort and energy to simply produce as much oil as now. The net energy will also decrease. So it seems wishful thinking that tar sands will ever provide more than a tiny fraction of what conventional is now. I think Canadian tar sands is at little more than 1 mbpd, now.
User avatar
TonyPrep
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2842
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand

Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby killJOY » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 16:04:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]One elderly man who called Midcoast Maine Community Action told receptionist Candy Downs that he was keeping warm by staying under the covers of a bed and running a hair dryer.

"It's sad. It makes me want to cry," she said.


GLOAT, JD. GLOAT!
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
User avatar
killJOY
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2220
Joined: Mon 21 Feb 2005, 04:00:00
Location: ^NNE^

Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby Concerned » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 16:14:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]One elderly man who called Midcoast Maine Community Action told receptionist Candy Downs that he was keeping warm by staying under the covers of a bed and running a hair dryer.

"It's sad. It makes me want to cry," she said.


GLOAT, JD. GLOAT!


Who cares JD does not use blankets and a hair dryer to keep warm in winter. All good. Where is this crisis you guys were talking about?
"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
-Italian Proverb
User avatar
Concerned
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1571
Joined: Thu 23 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby Dezakin » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 16:53:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 't')he tar sands which can support more than 5 mbpd
From the estimates I've seen, 5 mbpd is optimistic. This seems reasonable, given that the best deposits are already being mined. As the deposits become poorer, it will take more effort and energy to simply produce as much oil as now. The net energy will also decrease. So it seems wishful thinking that tar sands will ever provide more than a tiny fraction of what conventional is now. I think Canadian tar sands is at little more than 1 mbpd, now.

The reason 5mbpd is optimistic is because most capital is tied up in other oil production and labor bottlenecks, not lack of resources. There aren't problems of 'field exhaustion' in the tar sands because most of it is surface mining which largely has the same quality of ore. Most of the in-situ methods haven't been deployed yet.

I doubt it will reach much more than 5mbpd simply because conventional oil decline wont be rapid enough to predicate a massive rush to the tar sands.
User avatar
Dezakin
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1569
Joined: Wed 09 Feb 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby PhebaAndThePilgrim » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 17:59:35

Good day from Pheba, from the farm:
Just a quick follow-up from yesterday. Barn roof is free of ice. Hubby spent two days scraping ice from roof. Barn roof is safe now. Hubby is a carpenter and very good at math. He sat down and did the math on the square feet of barn roof, and the weight of the ice, and the thickness of the ice.
According to his math (which is usually very accurate), he moved over 22 tons of ice over a two day period.
He was so sore last night he had to sleep in the recliner so his shoulders would stop hurting.
Now he is cutting firewood for the wood stove.
Pheba.
PhebaAndThePilgrim
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 294
Joined: Fri 29 Jul 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Show-Me State

Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby threadbear » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 18:10:59

Wow Pheba. Good hearing your news and views--always love reading them. Does your husband have a harness he can use when doing these kinds of chores, or is there simply no place to attach the harness? I insisted my husband get a really good harness when he was painting the back of the house. We're on the top of a steep decline and it would be game over if he fell.

I think JD is actually making a good point. Many people will begin to drive less, and also switch to cheaper driving modes if it gets much worse. But food is another matter, as you point out. It has to get from point a to point b, and I for one, have never seen a crate of lettuce hop on a moped and traverse the continent. :)
User avatar
threadbear
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7577
Joined: Sat 22 Jan 2005, 04:00:00

Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby Pixie » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 20:31:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')
So you don't believe that somebody who is spending a lot of money on gas every month might get tempted by a scooter? You know, they see an ad, or hear about it from a friend, that these mopeds get 100 miles/gallon, versus their current 20mpg. And they go home and work it out. It turns out that they can actually save about $US 4.50 an hour by driving a moped. It's like working a second job, where you earn an extra $4.50 for every hour you drive. Would you drive a moped for a tax-free $4.50 an hour? I would. If I was a low wage guy in America right now with gas at $3.50, I could definitely be tempted by a nice moped. Especially with a good ad campaign that played up the money angle. A hot moped like this:

You don't think that a certain percentage of people might give in and purchase a scooter, without being forced but by being tempted, by the money?


There is always a market for mopeds. There is always a market for bicycles. There is always a market for small cars and train tickets. The question is when the market forces shift on a macro level and the majority of people start going that way and away from SUV's. Also, once people do that, how does it affect life? Is that still Life As We Know It?

And later, when the price goes even higher, and even the mopeds are not practical, is that Life as We Know It?

And then when do we get to the point when the price of petrochemicals has gotten to the point that farmers won't buy fertilizer--can they all switch to organic in time? Can they all switch to organic at all?

And when the entire corn crop gets sold for ethanol, and none for food, is that Life as We Know It?
Just another tofu-munching bike-riding Rambo(/Rambette)
User avatar
Pixie
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 330
Joined: Tue 05 Sep 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Oregon
Top

Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby TonyPrep » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 20:34:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 't')he tar sands which can support more than 5 mbpd
From the estimates I've seen, 5 mbpd is optimistic. This seems reasonable, given that the best deposits are already being mined. As the deposits become poorer, it will take more effort and energy to simply produce as much oil as now. The net energy will also decrease. So it seems wishful thinking that tar sands will ever provide more than a tiny fraction of what conventional is now. I think Canadian tar sands is at little more than 1 mbpd, now.

The reason 5mbpd is optimistic is because most capital is tied up in other oil production and labor bottlenecks, not lack of resources. There aren't problems of 'field exhaustion' in the tar sands because most of it is surface mining which largely has the same quality of ore. Most of the in-situ methods haven't been deployed yet.

I doubt it will reach much more than 5mbpd simply because conventional oil decline wont be rapid enough to predicate a massive rush to the tar sands.
That doesn't seem like a good reason. Are you suggesting that a slow decline will stop, at some stage or that the world will simply not need much oil, by the time tar sands ramps up to 5mbpd.

I'm also not sure about the tar sands being uniform. It would be odd, indeed, if these natural formations were uniform in quality and accessibility. So you have any references for the uniformity claim?
User avatar
TonyPrep
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2842
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand
Top

Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby Dezakin » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 20:58:26

When you have reserves in the hundreds of billions of barrels accessible by surface mining, and resources in the trillions of barrrels potentially accessible with advanced in-situ techniques, you can set the flow rate as high as capital allows.

With surface mining its simply a matter of building more trucks. With In situ techniques its often a matter of simply building more infrastructure.
User avatar
Dezakin
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1569
Joined: Wed 09 Feb 2005, 04:00:00

Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby JohnDenver » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 22:15:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'P')etroleum-based energy costs increased at a 20.6 percent annual rate
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

A 20.6% increase in energy cost over the last 12 months ending Oct ’07 hardly seems inconsequential, JD.

And of course the graph first posted hardly takes in the entire picture - but that is par for this particular brand of propaganda I suppose.

At some point when the graph of total liquids looks like the one posted, I’ll guess a 20.6%/year increase will seem like the good old days.


Actually, the graph of liquids looks almost exactly like the one for oil. See for yourself:

Crude oil:
Image
Liquids:
Image

In fact, the statistics wizards over at the Oil Drum are pretty sure that that little uptick at the end of the liquids chart is just noise. So we haven't seen any real growth in liquids for years now.

Compare with the latest stats on world economic growth from the U.N.:

2002: +1.9%
2003: +2.7%
2004: +4.1%
2005: +3.4%
2006: +4.0%
2007: +3.4%
Source(pdf)

So how is it that the world economy is growing with declining oil production, and flat liquids production? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought a halt in oil/liquids growth was supposed to halt economic growth, you know like "shortonoil" says:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he end of oil production growth, translates to the end of economic growth, and thus the end to monetary growth.

Source

We've seen the end of oil production growth, and the economy keeps growing unabated. Pretty big glitch there, peak oilies.

Oh, and hey Aaron, when you get done wiping your butt, can you fix the name of the site? Apparently the peak oilers have given up on peak oil, and now are concerned with "peak liquids". In the interests of accuracy and full disclosure, you'll need to change the name to "Peak Liquid News and Message Boards".
Last edited by JohnDenver on Tue 11 Dec 2007, 22:45:30, edited 1 time in total.
Peak Oil Debunked
JohnDenver
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2145
Joined: Sun 29 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby JohnDenver » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 22:28:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'L')ike Pheba says you need to think on longer time scales than the next minute or two. And people like her are right to be angry about being squeezed out of making a living by this mess.


Pheba is producing beef -- the SUV of foods. So it's not going to be any big surprise if she gets squeezed right out of business. Peak oil will be a dramatic transition, something like the metamorphosis of a caterpillar into a moth, or the way little scurrying mammals pulled a fast one on the dinosaurs. Some segments of the economy will wither and die, and others will boom explosively, stealing the niches of the previously dominant industries. People will shift from SUVs to mopeds, from ICEs to EVs, and from beef to chicken or tofu. The important thing is to be flexible/mobile and adapt. If you get screwed in the transition, you have nobody to blame but yourself. Capitalism is a competitive, dynamic system. You snooze, you lose. :twisted:
JohnDenver
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2145
Joined: Sun 29 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby Pops » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 22:38:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'A')ctually, the graph of liquids looks almost exactly like the one for oil. See for yourself:

Compare with the latest stats on world economic growth from the U.N.:

(sorry the link didn’t work for me)

If those numbers are in US$ that is no suprise.
Actually monetary growth is certainly quit robust – certainly the US money supply is – what level would the GDP and stock markets need to be to match 2000 levels when adjusted for inflation/deflation/whatever the term is?

Have you noticed the value of the US$ lately? Perhaps the economy is not too healthy due to cost of energy, food, raw materials and such but the old statisticians and printers kinda think the more dollars pooping out the better?

Kinda like a calf with the squirts! He is obviously eating or he wouldn’t be shitting so everything is OK!

To your graphs; it looks like liquids are still trending up – could be just my eye though.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac
Top

Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby JohnDenver » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 22:42:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]One elderly man who called Midcoast Maine Community Action told receptionist Candy Downs that he was keeping warm by staying under the covers of a bed and running a hair dryer.

"It's sad. It makes me want to cry," she said.


GLOAT, JD. GLOAT!


These heart-rending stories get trotted out every time they need to shill for welfare budget hikes. Which isn't to say that some assistance may be in order. But that assistance should be contingent on strict energy education and monitoring. It's actually quite easy to keep one person warm for pennies a day, if you learn the proper techniques. For gods sakes, people sleep on the side of Mt. Everest without a heater. What was the guy wearing? His underwear? Hello!!!

I can see where you might be upset, though. An addled old man with a hairdryer is pretty f-ing far from the collapse of the U.S. gubmint that you're hoping for:
"I don't hate America, but I do hate the government. I can't wait for it to collapse." --killJOY
Peak Oil Debunked
JohnDenver
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2145
Joined: Sun 29 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby Pops » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 22:58:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'P')eak oil will be a dramatic transition,

... If you get screwed in the transition, you have nobody to blame but yourself. Capitalism is a competitive, dynamic system. You snooze, you lose. :twisted:

Perhaps the most lucid thing I have ever read from you JD.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac
Top

Re: Peak Oil: The Big Fizzle

Postby Heineken » Tue 11 Dec 2007, 23:05:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'J')D remind me. What is your point anyway?


Yes, I'd like to see this rambling discussion get boiled down to the point, too. I have the feeling that once that point gets isolated, it becomes easily squashable.
"Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog

"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---I & my bro.
User avatar
Heineken
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7051
Joined: Tue 14 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Rural Virginia
Top

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron