[frankthetank]

Ended under $89...jumped around a lot today. Almost seems like traders don't know what to think and decided to take profit before the weekend? Still think we continue downwards for awhile, if reports stay positive and no more explosions. Unleaded dropped here yesterday (.06). Maybe they'll try to get it down before the Christmas shopping is done so then people will think they have more money and then spend like crazy!

[funzone36]

^ Sorry to break your speculation but consumer growth already slowed before Christmas:



Link

[nth]

What boggles my mind is all this talk that oil production has not gone up in the last few weeks.
How can people be saying that? What figures are people using to back this up?

I don't have proof that there are more oil, but I am puzzled by tanker prices. The price to ship tankers of oil just keeps climbing. To me that must means there must be more oil being ship.

What is interesting is also Saudi Arabia claiming 9mbpd...
That is almost back to their peak annual production.
Bloomberg

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Nokta said rates on VLCC’s jumped from $25,000 per vessel per day to $38,000 to $40,000 per vessel per day on Nov. 16.

[Valdemar]

Because we can always trust what a Saudi oil man says, amirite?

pstarr has already made a thread on this topic. Oil supplies have gone up by about 759 kilobarrels, but it was hard enough even getting that and it appears to be low quality crud that is getting on to the market now.

[nth]

If Saudi Aramco is producing near its annual peak production of around 9mbpd and oil prices stay in the 90's, then we are either seeing a broken market or a severe oil shortage problem where demand is racing way above production.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'I')f Saudi Aramco is producing near its annual peak production of around 9mbpd and oil prices stay in the 90's, then we are either seeing a broken market or a severe oil shortage problem where demand is racing way above production.

[Troyboy1208]

@ funzone:
Use the short link feature so we dont have to keep moving our screens back and forth to read the sentences. thanks

[frankthetank]

Almost down to $87 today. The long march down... how low can we go?

[Eli]

Pretty damn low, oil has been driven by this crazy bullshit driven financial scheme in the US. I see a lot of turbulence ahead and there are multi trillions of dollars in losses that have to be worked off.

I have learned one thing from this site and it is this,

I am glad I am not an oil commodities trader.

[Revi]

I hope the price of heating oil goes down a bit. We're locked in at $2.33, but the price is now $3.22 a gallon for most people. I think it will wreck them if it doesn't go down soon. I know of three families that are trying to sell their small houses so that they can pay for heat.

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') hope the price of heating oil goes down a bit. We're locked in at $2.33, but the price is now $3.22 a gallon for most people. I think it will wreck them if it doesn't go down soon. I know of three families that are trying to sell their small houses so that they can pay for heat.

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') hope the price of heating oil goes down a bit. We're locked in at $2.33, but the price is now $3.22 a gallon for most people. I think it will wreck them if it doesn't go down soon. I know of three families that are trying to sell their small houses so that they can pay for heat.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', '.')..how low can we go?

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', '.')..how low can we go?

[Valdemar]

Another aspect of the "undulating plaeaux", since not only production seems to be going up and down within a certain range as it sinks, but price as it rises. Like the end of the Titanic bobbing up, then filling with water and then refloating, the price seems to be reaching highs, then cooling off and allowing more consumption before that feedback loop causes another record high.

And on it goes.

[frankthetank]

Oil back up again this morning to 87.70... I thought we'd have a long run down, but in this market who knows what the hell is going on.

I do think that next spring/summer is when things get really interesting.

Thats true about those poor countries, and i guess i never looked at it that way. If the price drops low enough its going to look like a clearance sale and people are going to buy, buy, buy...

[thor]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'I') do think that next spring/summer is when things get really interesting.

[Geko45]

Up over $90 again. I think the recent pull back had mostly to do with the dollar's recovey back into the 76 range (was in the 74s). The fate of crude and the dollar are inexorably intertwined. I'll let ya'll argue about which one is cause and which one is effect.

[Zardoz]

N.Y. Crude Oil Rises More Than $3 on Falling U.S. Inventories

The "s" word again:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rude oil rose more than $3 a barrel in New York after U.S. inventories dropped as refiners prepared to meet heating demand.

Supplies fell 7.91 million barrels to 305.2 million barrels last week, the biggest drop since September 2004, the Energy Department reported yesterday. Crude-oil in New York has declined 9.1 percent from a record $99.29 a barrel, reached on Nov. 21, because of an economic slowdown.

"The focus is shifting to supply in the face of the approaching winter,'' said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president for energy risk management at MF Global Ltd. in New York. "Crude-oil inventories posted a big decline yesterday. In spite of the big build in product stocks the year-on-year deficit in heating oil is massive.''

[DantesPeak]

The 8 million crude supply drop reflects a 6 million revision to October supplies and a 2 million loss of shipments due to fog and shipping congestion near Texas/LA.

Revisions or not, oil supplies can't continually keep dropping at this rate for another year - otherwise refining operations would be disrupted.


On another issue - Strangely those, who only one week ago boldly stated that OPEC would increase production, are mum in the aftermath of a mostly irrelevant OPEC meeting. For example, those optimistic oil tanker tracker firms, whose positive OPEC production predictions were mentioned in every oil report circulating the world last week, have not been heard from in this week.

Quite strange.