[backstop]

People - have another look at the graph -

It shows developing countries' usage of Chem fertilizers in massive decline and Industrialized countries usage on a steady rising trend.

Supposedly more efficient Indus. Co.s' usage can't be seen in this graph.

What can be seen is the decline of their use in Dev.Co.s resulting from increasing impoverishment, or possibly from an unpublicised massive voluntary shift to organic farming (which seems pretty unlikely).

Yes/No ?

regards

Backstop

[Concerned]

Overall the trend is still up

http://www.tfi.org/Statistics/worldfertuse.asp

World Item
Consumption Nitrogenous Fertilizers Phosphate
Fertilizers Potash
Fertilizers Total
Fertilizers


1961/62 11,588 10,931 8,664 31,182
1962/63 13,137 11,612 9,231 33,981
1963/64 14,760 12,929 9,999 37,688
1964/65 16,474 14,490 10,920 41,884
1965/66 19,097 15,799 12,106 47,003
1966/67 22,179 17,414 12,736 52,329
1967/68 24,210 18,140 13,928 56,277
1968/69 26,248 19,037 14,525 59,810
1969/70 28,471 19,801 15,210 63,482
1970/71 31,756 21,117 16,435 69,308
1971/72 33,536 22,435 17,340 73,310
1972/73 36,144 24,009 18,542 78,695
1973/74 39,204 25,870 20,401 85,475
1974/75 38,425 23,986 19,534 81,945
1975/76 44,420 25,609 21,370 91,399
1976/77 45,263 27,323 22,849 95,435
1977/78 49,120 28,549 22,938 100,607
1978/79 54,252 30,046 24,456 108,754
1979/80 57,223 31,196 24,054 112,472
1980/81 60,776 31,700 24,244 116,720
1981/82 60,452 30,946 23,749 115,147
1982/83 61,173 31,086 22,853 115,112
1983/84 67,117 33,177 25,410 125,704
1984/85 70,836 34,442 25,959 131,237
1985/86 70,354 33,463 25,673 129,490
1986/87 72,481 34,769 26,167 133,417
1987/88 75,811 36,291 27,374 139,476
1988/89 79,543 37,612 28,005 145,159
1989/90 79,115 37,568 26,685 143,368
1990/91 77,175 35,970 24,684 137,829
1991/92 75,633 35,241 23,732 134,606
1992/93 73,657 31,190 20,492 125,339
1993/94 72,388 28,962 19,131 120,480
1994/95 72,430 29,566 20,051 122,046
1995/96 78,357 30,663 20,661 129,681
1996/97 82,590 31,104 20,885 134,579
1997/98 81,317 33,293 22,577 137,188
1998/99 82,814 33,312 22,041 138,167
1999/00 84,917 33,288 22,096 140,302
2000/01 80,949 32,472 21,778 135,198
2001/02 81,970 33,050 22,711 137,730

[Concerned]

More numbers on use fertilizer use

http://www.tfi.org/Statistics/USfertuse2.asp

Overall use seems fairly high.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', 'P')eople - have another look at the graph -

It shows developing countries' usage of Chem fertilizers in massive decline and Industrialized countries usage on a steady rising trend.

Supposedly more efficient Indus. Co.s' usage can't be seen in this graph.

What can be seen is the decline of their use in Dev.Co.s resulting from increasing impoverishment, or possibly from an unpublicised massive voluntary shift to organic farming (which seems pretty unlikely).

Yes/No ?

regards

Backstop

[backstop]

Monte - Your dead right. Sorry all - am working too late too often.

regards,

Backstop

[Concerned]

Looks like overal fertilizer use is still climbing?

http://www.fertilizer.org/ifa/statistic ... tablen.asp

http://www.fertilizer.org/ifa/statistic ... tablep.asp

http://www.fertilizer.org/ifa/statistic ... tablek.asp

[small_steps]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patrickjford', '2'). Urbanization - Turning a corn field into WalMart or tract homes will drop fertilizer use down to nothing.

[pea-jay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'p')atrickjford wrote:
2. Urbanization - Turning a corn field into WalMart or tract homes will drop fertilizer use down to nothing.

As urban fertilizer use in greater per acre than rural use, this would point the other way.

[CeeCee]

Re fertilizer...

Maybe worm farming would be another good occupation for post peak- it's a good way to make fertilizer - although in relatively small quantities.

Another word for worm farming is 'vermiculture' - do a search on google.e.g. see http://www.vermiculture.com/

I've started a very small worm farm inside three car tyres (piled vertically with a cardboard as a lid to let rain in but keep sun out) and I put grass clippings and vegetable scraps in it and there are heaps of worms inside it. The worms just found there way into themselves, from the ground.

If everyone did that it would certainly help in local food production.

Also it should be taught at schools!

[ararboin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y understanding is that organic farmers just plow more to make up for lack of fertilizers. So they use a lot of fossil fuel either way -- doh!

[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ren't you confusing fertilizer with herbicides?

[ONeil]

Hello,

I normally work with engineers and once and awhile I'm lucky to enough to work with doctors and scientists. I say this because these people are normally very intelligent and discussing non work related things with them can be very enlightening.

One of my co-workers simply refuses to believe that oil is used to make fertilizers. He knows more about chemistry than I do. Besides I have no idea how fertilizers are made. He uses this 'obvious flaw in logic' to completely refute the entire peak oil argument.

Normally I wouldn't care, but I sit face to face with this person eight hours a day. To put it mildly, it is a frustrating experience.

Does anyone know where I can find documentation showing a direct link between oil and the production of fertilizers? Without it I am stuck facing someone in agressive denial every day of my life. Well until I leave this job anyways.

Thanks.

[johnmarkos]

http://www.efma.org/manufacturing/section01.asp

"The intermediate product in the case of nitrogen (N) fertilizers is ammonia (NH3), which is produced by combining nitrogen extracted from the air with hydrogen from hydrocarbons such as natural gas, naphtha or other (heavier) oil fractions, and hydrogen which is obtained by means of the Steam Reforming Process."

[bart]

More on the question of fertilizer and oil at
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic1875.html .

- bart

[pip]

All the ammonia plants I know of use natural gas, FWIW.

[Antimatter]

A hydrogen source is needed to produce nitrogen fertalizers, natural gas is usually the cheapest. Hydrogen is reformed from the methane and combined with nitrogen in the air to produce ammonia, which can be applied directly to fields or used to make other nitrogen fertalizers like ammonium nitrate and urea. It would be possible in theory to use hydrogen from wind/solar etc power or gassification of biomass, the usual issies of scalability and cost apply though. Some hydrogen plants use cheap electricity from old hydro damns.

[Pops]

I’m not sure whether fertilizer being made from oil is the entire story on PO. BTW you can google to find how many fert factories have already shut down due to rising NG prices.

As I remember, diesel fuel is made from oil and we use a lot of that in food production. I can’t remember the number – but for each food cal produced we expend many more times that in fossil fuel calories.

Again, google “the oil we eatâ€

[MikeB]

Geologist Dale Allen Pfeiffer's "Eating Fossil Fuels" is best essay about oil and agriculture. Give it to your colleague. He will shit his pants.

[0mar]

Oil is primarily used for pesticides. Organophosphates fuck an insect's shit up.

[bobbyald]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')eologist Dale Allen Pfeiffer's "Eating Fossil Fuels" is best essay about oil and agriculture.