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THE Tipping Point Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby Ludi » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 17:54:01

There's no such entity as "collective humanity."
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby Brokaws-area » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 18:01:46

Bas wrote
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')It will be a coming of age - story for humanity as a whole in the sense that we will learn about our responsibilities we have as a species as a whole, and that's something that has never happened, until now we only had hints towards something like that; disastrous global climate change and only that can and will teach us that lesson, and it will be the most important lesson we've ever learned or will ever learn; it will firmly put into our collective minds our position relative to nature.


"The probability of failure ought not deter us from the support of a cause we deem to be just."
Abraham Lincoln

There are 2 possibilities here:
1- it's not too late. Therefore we all need to work like hell, and make healing the planet our primary focus.
2- it is too late. In this case, we also need to take the same actions we would for #1. Why? It's our ultimate moral responsibility. Plus maybe they were wrong and it's not too late! If it is too late, our actions might feel more like hospice for the planet, a form of penance, a form of prayer for forgiveness. But either way, our actions would look the same.

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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby Bas » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 18:05:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')here's no such entity as "collective humanity."


you going doomer on me now Ludi?

but yes, there is no such thing as "collecitve humanity", there never was, and there never will be? In that case we're doomed for sure. I stubbornly refuse to believe so; I would like to accuse you of having a short time horizon and thinking our children will be much dumber than we are (as dumb as we are)
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 18:15:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '
')Personally, I think you, along with 95% of the population of this board lack imagination; when the multitude of variables become more than your brain can handle you conclude "error, doom", really, to step over that may be a big step for a human mind, but a small step for humankind.

Remaining 5% of population on this board (for example you) are displaying unfounded beliefs that everything in the future will be close to current status quo regardless of any inputs from Nature.
No amount of evidence will convince you to contrary, so you will carry on bashing regardless, right to the very end, meantime repeating your mantra that "we will learn something and everything will be fine".

All great civilizations of the past have been doomed for one reason or another.
Current developments are clearly suggesting that this one will not be different in that respect. Too difficult to comprehend by Cornucopian mind.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby Bas » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 18:24:01

your comment is ridiculous EU, I take this climate change debate far beyond than anybody. I expect my own country to be completely gone by the end of the century; does that strike you as "everything will be fine?"

I'm the biggest climatic doomer on this board, and granted it will be much bigger than peakoil, and I've been the first and foremost to argue that western civilization will subside to asian dominance, so who are you to call me anything?

you are the one who is bashing EU, you didn't call me on content, I didn't say things were going to be allright, the opposite in fact. You could bring your criticism in a more respectful manner but I suspect you are only here for putting other people down and that that gets you off somehow.

so come with some real criticism or contribution to this discussion already, bitch.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby sjn » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 19:09:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'y')our comment is ridiculous EU, I take this climate change debate far beyond than anybody. I expect my own country to be completely gone by the end of the century; does that strike you as "everything will be fine?"

I'm the biggest climatic doomer on this board, and granted it will be much bigger than peakoil, and I've been the first and foremost to argue that western civilization will subside to asian dominance, so who are you to call me anything?

you are the one who is bashing EU, you didn't call me on content, I didn't say things were going to be allright, the opposite in fact. You could bring your criticism in a more respectful manner but I suspect you are only here for putting other people down and that that gets you off somehow.

so come with some real criticism or contribution to this discussion already, bitch.

I'm sorry Bas but EU is right. You stated you didn't believe that there would be a mass die-off and accused those of us here who believed that there would be of being unimaginative doomers, lacking your vision for changing the collective nature of mankind.

The hope for the future lies not in changing the nature of masses of humanity, but in the survivors adopting a culture which is sustainable within the limits of the Earth.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby Bas » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 19:12:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '
')The hope for the future lies not in changing the nature of masses of humanity, but in the survivors adopting a culture which is sustainable within the limits of the Earth.


that still amounts to my view, die-off or not. And I only stated that I think catastrophic climate change is a certainty, and that die-off is a possibility but by no means a foregone conclusion. Twist my words all you want to suit your black-and-white brain, the brain that can't think beyond 6 or 7 variables, reality won't budge.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby sjn » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 19:30:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '
')The hope for the future lies not in changing the nature of masses of humanity, but in the survivors adopting a culture which is sustainable within the limits of the Earth.


that still amounts to my view, die-off or not. And I only stated that I think catastrophic climate change is a certainty, and that die-off is a possibility but by no means a foregone conclusion. Twist my words all you want to suit your black-and-white brain, the brain that can't think beyond 6 or 7 variables, reality won't budge.

You have no idea about how I perceive reality, nor my ability to handle complex problems. You state: "catastrophic climate change is a certainty", yet you also state that that "that die-off is a possibility but by no means a foregone conclusion", no word-twisting is needed to take issue with that. Frankly, you would be more credible if you said that catastrophic climate change is highly likely, then at least the other statement would be consistent. There is no possibility of having "catastrophic climate change" without a die-off, one will inevitably lead to the other. Sorry if that's too black and white for you.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby Bas » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 19:36:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '
')You have no idea about how I perceive reality, nor my ability to handle complex problems. You state: "catastrophic climate change is a certainty", yet you also state that that "that die-off is a possibility but by no means a foregone conclusion", no word-twisting is needed to take issue with that. Frankly, you would be more credible if you said that catastrophic climate change is highly likely, then at least the other statement would be consistent. There is no possibility of having "catastrophic climate change" without a die-off, one will inevitably lead to the other. Sorry if that's too black and white for you.


Ah, so you accept my premise then. Disastrous climate change is a certainty and a die-off because of it is likely.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby sjn » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 19:40:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '
')You have no idea about how I perceive reality, nor my ability to handle complex problems. You state: "catastrophic climate change is a certainty", yet you also state that that "that die-off is a possibility but by no means a foregone conclusion", no word-twisting is needed to take issue with that. Frankly, you would be more credible if you said that catastrophic climate change is highly likely, then at least the other statement would be consistent. There is no possibility of having "catastrophic climate change" without a die-off, one will inevitably lead to the other. Sorry if that's too black and white for you.


Ah, so you accept my premise then. Disastrous climate change is a certainty and a die-off because of it is likely.

No, but I do accept the reverse. Disastrous climate change is likely, and a die-off because of it is a certainty.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby Bas » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 19:50:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '
')No, but I do accept the reverse. Disastrous climate change is likely, and a die-off because of it is a certainty.


for what reasons?
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby sjn » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 20:16:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '
')No, but I do accept the reverse. Disastrous climate change is likely, and a die-off because of it is a certainty.


for what reasons?

Ecological evidence strongly suggests that we are in population overshoot, so even if the climate stayed as it is our current numbers are unsustainable. If the climate change was beneficial, it might increase the global carrying capacity - this is extremely unlikely - although has been expressed by some climate skeptics. So climate change needn't cause a die-off, but disastrous climate change, which by definition would reduce carrying capacity, would.

It also has to be taken in context with the affects we're having on the environment, falling water tables, desertification and deforestation etc. Irrespective of overpopulation, when species, and indeed human civilizations have collapsed in the past it was due to multiple impacts, any one of which would cause strain but when taken taken together form synergies which overwhelm the ability of the population to adapt to the changes.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby Zardoz » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 20:40:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '.')..Irrespective of overpopulation, when species, and indeed human civilizations have collapsed in the past it was due to multiple impacts, any one of which would cause strain but when taken taken together form synergies which overwhelm the ability of the population to adapt to the changes.

Converging Catastrophes
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby Bas » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 21:12:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '
')No, but I do accept the reverse. Disastrous climate change is likely, and a die-off because of it is a certainty.


for what reasons?

Ecological evidence strongly suggests that we are in population overshoot, so even if the climate stayed as it is our current numbers are unsustainable. If the climate change was beneficial, it might increase the global carrying capacity - this is extremely unlikely - although has been expressed by some climate skeptics. So climate change needn't cause a die-off, but disastrous climate change, which by definition would reduce carrying capacity, would.

It also has to be taken in context with the affects we're having on the environment, falling water tables, desertification and deforestation etc. Irrespective of overpopulation, when species, and indeed human civilizations have collapsed in the past it was due to multiple impacts, any one of which would cause strain but when taken taken together form synergies which overwhelm the ability of the population to adapt to the changes.


still you're arguing die-off as a result of catasrophic climate change while you seem to contest that climate change itself? and with agreeing with EU you seem to asume that same climate change will be an easy excersize, as he tries to sleezily fumble that into my mouth.

Still, you, SJN, while twisting around words, imply that climate change is not a certainty and at the same time you are certain that it would be catastrophic; besides that being very black and white that doesn't make sense; you investigated the effects more than the causes? get out of here man.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby turmoil » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 22:08:01

Don't worry guys. I think I figured out why we are here:

Mitigating Climate change is not profitable / possible (on a necessary scale) because the cheapest resources are the most polluting.

Adapting to climate change creates a whole new market for goods and services regarding higher seas, droughts, and a generally warmer climate.

I welcome the challenges posing humankind right now. Sure there will be suffering. But when has there been no suffering?

Welcome to the bottleneck. Maybe on the other side we will be smarter than yeast.
"If you are a real seeker after truth, it's necessary that at least once in your life you doubt all things as far as possible"-Rene Descartes

"When you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the truth"-Sherlock Holmes
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby Ferretlover » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 22:46:14

I know that it is possible that some, or many, will die due higher temperatures-it happens about every summer here in the US.
How might the human body change/mutate to accommodate the climate changes?
"Open the gates of hell!" ~Morgan Freeman's character in the movie, Olympus Has Fallen.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 11 Oct 2007, 03:45:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'I') know that it is possible that some, or many, will die due higher temperatures-it happens about every summer here in the US.
How might the human body change/mutate to accommodate the climate changes?

In principle it does not have to.
We may well enjoy warm, balmy weather of Antarctic...
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 11 Oct 2007, 04:11:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'y')our comment is ridiculous EU, I take this climate change debate far beyond than anybody. I expect my own country to be completely gone by the end of the century; does that strike you as "everything will be fine?"

Too many inputs of complicated variables, so the only outcome can take a form of doom, yes?
Now you are joining 95% of doomers, as I don't know any better term to describe those who believe that Netherlands will be sunk.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m the biggest climatic doomer on this board, and granted it will be much bigger than peakoil, and I've been the first and foremost to argue that western civilization will subside to asian dominance, so who are you to call me anything?

First you are complaining that 95% of others are doomers (presumably due to lack of imagination/brain underfunctioning) and now you are saying that you are a doomer yourself.
Make your mind man, it does not make sense (unless you consider your brain to be underfunctioning as well).
BTW, I remember your posts suggesting that Europe will learn something, transform to renewables and grossly survive.
Presumably under Asian dominance. Sure...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou could bring your criticism in a more respectful manner but I suspect you are only here for putting other people down and that that gets you off somehow.

Sour grapes.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')o come with some real criticism or contribution to this discussion already, bitch.

Nothing meaningful to say, so ad hominems had to follow.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby Bas » Thu 11 Oct 2007, 04:49:26

What I said was that the human brain can't succesfully juggle more than about 7 variables, and when we do try to juggle more than that we fail but often do not realize that, rather we make false conclusions of doom. Thinking that my country will be sunk doesn't lead me automatically to the conclusion that the people will go with it; for one there are too many factors involved.

As for ad homiums and namecalling, you kicked off that game by calling me a cornucopian. And apparently you insist to put in me one of two boxes which make up your two box universe of people; you're either doomer or cornucopian and that kind of reasoning just sets me off. Presumably under Asian dominance, sure? now you are the one displaying what you accused me off in the first place; not being able to comprehend that all great civilizations are doomed.

my mantra of ""we will learn something and everything will be fine". !? I never proposed such a thing; you're just being denigrating. I do not display unfounded beliefs that everything in the future will be close to current status quo regardless of any inputs from Nature, because I don't believe that. I just said that while catastrophic climate change is a certainty, die off is not. I also don't pretend to be smarter than 95% of the board, I just learned to not make false conclusions when there are too many variables to take into account, instead drawing no conclusions. You on the other hand seem champion the art of jumping to conclusions.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Postby gg3 » Thu 11 Oct 2007, 08:44:34

.
No, I'm the biggest climate doomer on the board.

Not only do I believe that catastrophic climate change is more than 75% probable. I also believe that (whether driven directly by climate or other causes) a greater than 60% net dieoff of the human race is 100% probable within the next two centuries, due to the sustainable carrying cpacity of Earth being about 2 - 3 billion humans at roughly a European standard of living.

That's doom for close to 4 billion. Anyone who wants to say they're a bigger doomer than I, has to come up with a viable rationale for a larger number of people doomed.

So there. Nyah-nyah!:-)

---

Argue, argue, yell, yell. Look, people, if we can't get over it here, among ourselves, what hope do we have of saving the planet?

---

The rationale for continuing to work as if we can make a difference, has less to do with whether or not it makes us feel better, and more to do with the fact that our doomful forecasts may turn out to be wrong.

'Tis better to try, and fail, than to fail to try at all, and one might even succeed.
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