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THE Tipping Point Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby Revi » Tue 09 Oct 2007, 21:35:25

It's never too late to save the planet. We are living on it. The "tipping point" is always here. I think a lot of people use this as an excuse not to do anything. "The place is trashed anyway, so why do anything?"

I don't care if it is trashed. It's time to clean it up. We can all make some difference, and then we feel like we're not just part of the problem, we're part of the solution.

Psychologically we need to feel that what we do matters. This matters. Talk is cheap. Time for action.

We reduced our carbon footprint by half in the past 5 years.

We aren't rich. Anyone can do this.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby ohanian » Tue 09 Oct 2007, 22:29:40

This is so misleading!

Tim Flannery did not say "we are past the tipping point"

He said "Scientist expects the greenhouse gas to be at a particular level at 2015 but actually found that level at 2005 which is 10 years earlier than expected".



http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g1JS ... AD8S5RGS02

Flannery, whose recent book "The Weather Makers: How Man Is Changing the Climate and What It Means for Life on Earth," made best-seller lists worldwide, said the data showed that the amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions had reached about 455 parts per million by mid-2005, well ahead of scientists' previous calculations.

"We thought we'd be at that threshold within about a decade, that we had that much time," Flannery said. "I mean, that's beyond the limits of projection, beyond the worst-case scenario as we thought of it in 2001," when the last major IPCC report was issued.
Last edited by ohanian on Tue 09 Oct 2007, 22:33:35, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby americandream » Tue 09 Oct 2007, 22:30:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I')t's never too late to save the planet. We are living on it. The "tipping point" is always here. I think a lot of people use this as an excuse not to do anything. "The place is trashed anyway, so why do anything?"

I don't care if it is trashed. It's time to clean it up. We can all make some difference, and then we feel like we're not just part of the problem, we're part of the solution.

Psychologically we need to feel that what we do matters. This matters. Talk is cheap. Time for action.

We reduced our carbon footprint by half in the past 5 years.

We aren't rich. Anyone can do this.


These very same people searching for excuses might well say, had the message been more optimistic, why bother, theres plenty of time. You cannot depend on these don't cares..they are utterly selfish and will look for any reason to indulge themselves, including resignation. if the planet has passed its tipping point, I for one would rather hear the truth.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby ohanian » Tue 09 Oct 2007, 22:56:11

[url=http://www.abc.net.au/science/future/[/url]
We are the FutureEaters
We are running out of Future
Soon we shall have no Future!
Damnit! Who took away my Future?
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 14:37:04

''We thought we'd be at that threshold within about a decade,'' Flannery told ABC. ''We thought we had that much time, but the new data indicates that in about mid-2005, we crossed that threshold.''

One point--isn't this about the time many think PO (or at least peak light crude) happened? 2005 has shaped up to be quite the year in the history of modern civilization, and perhaps in the history of life.

As ohanian rightly pointed out, Flannery himself did not use the term "tipping point," but 450 ppb has been widely circulated now as a level we need to stay below to keep a number of really bad things from happening, so I don't think it is too much of a stretch to use it here.

These levels should actually not be too surprising, given earlier indications that, after rising at about 1% per year, CO2 levels started climbing at 3+% per year starting around 2000. That's the power of compound interest working for you!

As I have said elsewhere, hope and optimism cannot be the basis of our care for the earth. Hospice workers do not abuse their patients just because they are terminal. Stopping our abusive relationship to the earth and to the future is a moral imperative, whether we can "save" it and ourselves or not.

And thanks for the "Future Eaters" thing, ohanian. I'm always looking for good, strong metaphors to get across the gravity of our situation.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby Bas » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 14:59:51

I think the term "tipping point" is misleading in this context.

It implies that it can be calculated exactly, when in fact we have great trouble doing so: the last couple of years have been full of reports about scientists being stunned about how fast everything is going, implying we reached an invisible tipping point, maybe decades ago; there is quite a delay between CO2 emissions and actual warming, so maybe we reached high enough levels in say, 1980 to start unstoppable climate change 25 years later...

Pretty much all my life I believed that climate change was unstoppable, never really having contemplated that anything would be done about it until we felt the effects of it; I took and take the "tipping point" as something irrelevant, more or less as a symbolic moment at which climate change is becoming visible as it is now, not a scientific moment.

I think it's more important also to watch for tipping points in local climates; the world's climate is a system of more or less local systems. Some of these systems may remain steady for a long time to come, others, most dramatically the arctic local climate at this moment, are losing their long time steady state as we speak. Ofcourse, destabilized local climates will affect bordering local climates in predictable and unpredictable ways, and it in time such changes might rip through the global climate system like falling dominoes in which some dominoes might take longer to fall than others.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby Ferretlover » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 15:09:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', ' ')the last couple of years have been full of reports about scientists being stunned about how fast everything is going, implying we reached an invisible tipping point, maybe decades ago;


HHhmmm... Wouldn't the accumulations of those reports indicate that, not only are we past peak, we are actually in the downhill freefall, with the different factors beginning to accelerate the process against each other?
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby Revi » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 15:21:46

We live in a place that is going over the edge. We all know that. All I was saying is that we can still do something about it, personally. We don't have to be adding to the problem of global warming. We don't drive hummers or suburbans because we don't want to add to the problem, not just because we can't afford them. It's a moral choice as one of the earlier posters said. The climate change issue is every bit as important as saving the world from the Axis was in the last century.

We have to make a stand, make the change. Start now!
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby Zardoz » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 15:41:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')e have to make a stand, make the change. Start now!

High gas cost won't drive away buyers of big SUVs - After 2-year slump, demand rebounds

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n these days of nearly $4-a-gallon gasoline, a three-ton SUV that practically requires a bank loan to fill 'er up would seem to be a tough sell.

Americans, however, are not shunning these beasts. Far from it. Auto industry figures show that after a two-year slump, sales of the gas guzzlers are up over 2006 -- in some cases, way up.

The numbers for large SUVs rose nearly 6 percent in the first quarter of 2007, and the April figures were up 25 percent from April 2006, according to automakers' statistics provided by Edmunds.com, an automotive research Web site.

The bigger the guzzler, the better the numbers. Sales of GMC's Yukon XL were up a whopping 72 percent last month, and the totals for its Chevrolet sister, the Suburban, rose 38 percent. Topping off the tank on either one can cost as much as $120.

"We've always said that large SUVs are never going the way of the dodo," said Alex Rosten, an analyst at Edmunds.com. "There will always be a demand for them. No other vehicle provides such capabilities -- the sheer cargo and passenger space, and the towing capacity."
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby Ferretlover » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 15:46:11

SUVs? HHmm.. Could it be that people buy them thinking they might as well 'blow it' since they won't be able to drive them for very long, and maybe, with the market the way it is, they may not have to finnish paying for them?
Or, has the number of incredibly stupid people just increased?
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 15:47:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') I think a lot of people use this as an excuse not to do anything. "The place is trashed anyway, so why do anything?


I completely agree. It's been denial denial denial until the point at which people say "Oh well too late."


But it isn't too late as long as we're still alive. In my opinion.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby Bas » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 15:48:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', ' ')the last couple of years have been full of reports about scientists being stunned about how fast everything is going, implying we reached an invisible tipping point, maybe decades ago;


HHhmmm... Wouldn't the accumulations of those reports indicate that, not only are we past peak, we are actually in the downhill freefall, with the different factors beginning to accelerate the process against each other?


well, I think any peak, or tipping point is just arbitrary; what really matters is the more CO2, the more destabilizing of the climate in all it's foreseen and unforseen ways. My 1980 pick is quite arbitrary, maybe 1990 is better; eitherway, I think we would have had and will have the same results in the future of climate change with the 1990 CO2 levels, though it might all move a bit slower, still a 33% higher CO2 level than the historic average was bound to make an impact sooner or later...now it's 50%, just means it will move a bit faster and the ultimate effect will be worse.

But really, the effects that we see now are just the symptoms, IMO we reached the tipping point, if there was such a thing, long ago, we just had to wait for the effects; like a viral disease will only show symptoms after an incubation period.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby Bas » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 15:55:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') I think a lot of people use this as an excuse not to do anything. "The place is trashed anyway, so why do anything?


I completely agree. It's been denial denial denial until the point at which people say "Oh well too late."


But it isn't too late as long as we're still alive. In my opinion.


I totally agree too, though as "green" as I am, the way I see it, the things that we can do now will hardly affect the way climate change is going to progress this century; still it may make a world of difference in the centuries after this one. It does present us with a big problem: politics have never dealt with problems on a timescale of say, 30 years at most....


Image aww :oops: too cute Ludi, from your farm?
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 16:09:05

It's true our politics have rarely dealt with long-term problems, that's why this needs to be addressed culturally, not politically, for our children's children's children's sake (if we give a rat's ass about them!). People in other cultures have tried to deal with issues on a long timescale, there's nothing inherant in the human brain that makes that impossible, merely difficult.


The chick is from our recent hatching. :)


Folks taking the long term view
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby Bas » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 17:00:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')t's true our politics have rarely dealt with long-term problems, that's why this needs to be addressed culturally, not politically, for our children's children's children's sake (if we give a rat's ass about them!). People in other cultures have tried to deal with issues on a long timescale, there's nothing inherant in the human brain that makes that impossible, merely difficult.


The chick is from our recent hatching. :)


Folks taking the long term view


I have to wonder though, how do you address something culturally? True, environmental awareness is bigger now than ever and everything bio or eco is hip in a lot of places...but it's not enough (yet, I still have hope) to really make sacrifices, not on a personal basis or a national political basis, apart from token actions.

I used to say that "we have to do something now" a couple of times on this forum, and mostly I just got snide remarks back for being alarmist but I'm glad to see attitudes here have changed quite remarkably fast I must say. Alot of concerned people have crawled out of the woodwork :)

Either way, I don't think we can do anything to avert catastrophical climate change on the short or medium term but that's no reason for me to be resigned, it actually strenghtens my conviction. I believe we'll see disaster upon natural disaster this century and that, and only that, can change human behavior on a global scale; I see this as a certainty whereas a big human die-off is still only a possibility to me. It will be a coming of age - story for humanity as a whole in the sense that we will learn about our responsibilities we have as a species as a whole, and that's something that has never happened, until now we only had hints towards something like that; disastrous global climate change and only that can and will teach us that lesson, and it will be the most important lesson we've ever learned or will ever learn; it will firmly put into our collective minds our position relative to nature.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 17:21:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'I') have to wonder though, how do you address something culturally?


By introducing people to new ideas. Basically, by doing what we do here on po.com - discussing things, and giving practical ideas for actions people can take, and taking those actions ourselves to serve as models for a different way to live.


Daniel Quinn writes a lot about cultural change, and I recommend his books to anyone who is interested in an ecological paradigm.


I agree with you it is likely disasters will change people's minds more quickly than talking about and modeling change, but I think it is extremely important that we have these ideas and models widely disseminated for when people need/want them.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 17:22:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', ' ')disastrous global climate change and only that can and will teach us that lesson, and it will be the most important lesson we've ever learned or will ever learn

You may not end up with many students left (if any)...and those who will stay may well display Easter Island syndrome.
All above suggest that we, means survivors, will learn nothing.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 17:33:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')All above suggest that we, means survivors, will learn nothing.


So you haven't learned anything, EU?


Or is everyone less intelligent than you are? 8O
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 17:44:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')All above suggest that we, means survivors, will learn nothing.


So you haven't learned anything, EU?


Or is everyone less intelligent than you are? 8O

"We" was a referral to collective humanity's ass, not to particular individuals.
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Re: Growth has already pushed Earth past tipping point

Unread postby Bas » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 17:53:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', ' ')disastrous global climate change and only that can and will teach us that lesson, and it will be the most important lesson we've ever learned or will ever learn

You may not end up with many students left (if any)...and those who will stay may well display Easter Island syndrome.
All above suggest that we, means survivors, will learn nothing.


In such a case, yes, I guess the human race will never learn and we're more conditioned monkeys than genuinely intelligent and social beings. But I wouldn't have said what I said if I didn't believe that we'll pull through with a new found common sense of destiny.

Personally, I think you, along with 95% of the population of this board lack imagination; when the multitude of variables become more than your brain can handle you conclude "error, doom", really, to step over that may be a big step for a human mind, but a small step for humankind.
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