by lorenzo » Tue 25 Jan 2005, 11:06:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SilverHair', 'H')ow did you arrive at the conclusion that biodiesel from palm is 20% cheaper than petroleum diesel? In you other thread you indicated the current price of palm oil is $71 per barrel.
This is what I wrote in my other thread:
"4. -current crude palm oil prices fluctuate between US$450 MT and US$350 MT; in 2001 there was a historic low price of US$181 MT
-converted to barrels, this gives: (high) US$ 71 per barrel and (low) US$ 55 per barrel; if palm oil reaches its historic low price once more, it becomes *directly* competitive with crude oil (it would stand at US$ 29, competitive with today's price of US$ 41 per barrel of crude oil) "
Note that crude petroleum costs US$49 pb today.
Potentially, and with existing production capacities, palm oil could be as much as 40% cheaper (historic low price of US$181 per tonne, compared to today's crude petroleum price of US$300 per tonne).
In the future, with the scale advantages of larger plantations (if you were to plant them today), and with a steady increase in petroleum prices (of say 3% per year), palm oil could well be 50% cheaper before the end of 2010.