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Re: Another Oil price Record

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Another Record

Unread postby Leanan » Wed 19 Sep 2007, 16:39:41

Oil sets record for three days straight

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il prices set another record high Wednesday after a government report showed crude supplies falling and a day after the Federal Reserve lowered a key interest rate.

U.S. light crude for October delivery rose 42 cents to settle at $81.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a record closing high for the third day straight. Immediately following the report it touched an intra-day record of $82.50 before retreating.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Zardoz » Wed 19 Sep 2007, 17:02:21

Once again, let's remember that this is happening with no unusual events occurring anywhere. This is strictly the market at work. It's about supply and demand, and nothing else.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Troyboy1208 » Wed 19 Sep 2007, 17:05:08

and why isnt this front page news? What price do we have to hit before we hit the inflation adjusted oil shock prices of the 70s and 80s? It seems each time we hit a record someone steps in and says "actually if adjusted for inflation oil was more expensive during the late 70s and early 80s". Frankly I am tired of hearing this and realize that either inflation is rampant or people dont know what the hell they are talking about!
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby rider » Wed 19 Sep 2007, 17:20:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Troyboy1208', 'a')nd why isnt this front page news? What price do we have to hit before we hit the inflation adjusted oil shock prices of the 70s and 80s? It seems each time we hit a record someone steps in and says "actually if adjusted for inflation oil was more expensive during the late 70s and early 80s". Frankly I am tired of hearing this and realize that either inflation is rampant or people dont know what the hell they are talking about!


The way the US dollar is tanking it's going to take a while, for people outside the US the price of crude is not going up as fast. :razz:
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby DantesPeak » Wed 19 Sep 2007, 17:35:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Troyboy1208', 'a')nd why isnt this front page news? What price do we have to hit before we hit the inflation adjusted oil shock prices of the 70s and 80s? It seems each time we hit a record someone steps in and says "actually if adjusted for inflation oil was more expensive during the late 70s and early 80s". Frankly I am tired of hearing this and realize that either inflation is rampant or people dont know what the hell they are talking about!


For various technical reasons, the "inflation adjusted" price for oil is flawed and overstated. Mostly this has to do with the fact when oil prices rise, it takes a long time for the subsequent effects to be fully reflected in the CPI.

Having said that, I think a price of around $85 would be the correct inflation adjusted high.

Anyway, people don't care about the price of oil, but the price of gasoline, diesel, and heating oil. The first and most of important of these, gasoline, has come down in price due to a sharp drop in refining margins on it.

Gasoline should follow the price of oil up fron here.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby whereagles » Wed 19 Sep 2007, 17:54:31

Refineries are about to get less stuff to work on. Their margins will have to go up to compensate, so expect a sharp rise in gasoline at some nearby stage.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Zardoz » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 11:53:07

Another day sees $82 holding up. I believe they refer to this as a pricing level being "supported".

Eighty-two bucks has "found support".
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby strider3700 » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 15:14:21

mmm 83.90 smell the meltdown goodness

<edit> this is on cnbc but I don't see anything about it online yet. I'm not sure where they are getting their data </edit>
Last edited by strider3700 on Thu 20 Sep 2007, 15:37:13, edited 2 times in total.
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby DantesPeak » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 15:25:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'T')hanks strider, I was just confirming that - it went over 83 at about 14:09 Eastern time. Yikes. What's with the spike?


Many oil companies shutting down Gulf of Mexico production.

Who would have thought after all the hurricane talk that a storm that hasn't even organized yet will have the greatest impact on US oil production so far this year? [Hurricane Dean caused a 10.8 million barrel loss for PEMEX, but the media and energy analysts don't seem to have even noticed that, since it didn't affect the US].
Last edited by DantesPeak on Thu 20 Sep 2007, 15:44:31, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Zardoz » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 16:00:36

Un-fricking-believable:

Image

And look at gold...
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby sirrom » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 16:12:28

what did YOU do in the eco-war?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayz1SK4KbX4
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Leanan » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 16:12:29

Oil surges past $83

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rude oil prices surged further into record terrain Thursday, breaching $83 a barrel as the weak dollar and last week's decline in U.S. oil inventories spurred buying of futures.

Light, sweet crude for October delivery gained $1.39 to settle at $83.32 a barrel on the Nymex, where it had settled at a record $81.93 a barrel on Wednesday. Crude rose as high as $83.90 in intraday trading Thursday.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby RdSnt » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 16:16:08

I would also consider that the oil price is reflecting the direction of the $US.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 16:32:12

Now it dropped like a rock. Somebody got nervous ( the oil ppt at work )
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby DantesPeak » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 16:32:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'I') would also consider that the oil price is reflecting the direction of the $US.


It's a cycle. As oil prices rise relative to everything else, the US trade deficit expands. To finance the deficit, a huge amount of dollars falls into foreign hands - more than they can reasonably use even if they wanted too. This creates a surplus of dollars, pushing the dollar down, and the price of oil even higher.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby DantesPeak » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 16:38:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'N')ow it dropped like a rock. Somebody got nervous ( the oil ppt at work )


Probably had something to do with the expiration of the October futures contract. The closing prices are frequently subject to wild swings in the last few minutes before the contracts expire.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 17:00:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'N')ow it dropped like a rock. Somebody got nervous ( the oil ppt at work )


Probably had something to do with the expiration of the October futures contract. The closing prices are frequently subject to wild swings in the last few minutes before the contracts expire.


Makes sense.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Zardoz » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 17:25:32

Oil Rises to Record for Seventh Day on Idled Gulf Production

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rude oil in New York rose to a record for a seventh day after the U.S. said that production in the Gulf of Mexico was shut in because of a storm threat.

More than 360,000 barrels, or 28 percent, of daily oil output was idled, the U.S. Minerals Management Service said today in a statement. Prices were already higher on signs that U.S. interest-rate cuts and a falling dollar will bolster demand.
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby strider3700 » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 17:27:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'N')ow it dropped like a rock. Somebody got nervous ( the oil ppt at work )


the contract closed and we jumped into the next one which was noticably lower. Now if it shoots back up to 84 tommorrow when the regular trading gets going then we will be on a hell of a bull run
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
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Re: Another Record

Unread postby Sys1 » Thu 20 Sep 2007, 19:03:41

I don't really worry about oil price, let me explain:
We all know that after reaching 90$ a barrel, price will freefall to 80$, which is 10$ lower than 90, an appropriate price for business as usual.

Of course, later, oil will reach 100$, but then will freefall to 90$, which is, and i bet you already know it, an appropriate price for business as usual.
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