[Valdemar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'I') don't really worry about oil price, let me explain:
We all know that after reaching 90$ a barrel, price will freefall to 80$, which is 10$ lower than 90, an appropriate price for business as usual.

Of course, later, oil will reach 100$, but then will freefall to 90$, which is, and i bet you already know it, an appropriate price for business as usual.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'I') don't really worry about oil price, let me explain:
We all know that after reaching 90$ a barrel, price will freefall to 80$, which is 10$ lower than 90, an appropriate price for business as usual.

Of course, later, oil will reach 100$, but then will freefall to 90$, which is, and i bet you already know it, an appropriate price for business as usual.

[whereagles]

Also in the news: indonesian tapis breaks $85.

linkie (might get out dated if you don't click it now)
http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_da ... kets_crude

[Sys1]

Valdemar and Doly, i was sarcastic, i thought it was clear

[Valdemar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'V')aldemar and Doly, i was sarcastic, i thought it was clear

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'C')urrently the US dollar index is down 1/4% on the day, near a record low, and oil is down over 2% on the day. I think the relationship is more often the other way around. Any gurus know what's going on to cause this? Thanks in advance.

[Zardoz]

Well, Bloomberg says it's because of a remark the Saudi oil minister made:

Crude Oil Falls Below $79 as Naimi Says Markets Are in Turmoil

Seems a bit silly, but that's how nervous the oil traders are these days, I guess.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'W')ell, Bloomberg says it's because of a remark the Saudi oil minister made:

Crude Oil Falls Below $79 as Naimi Says Markets Are in Turmoil

Seems a bit silly, but that's how nervous the oil traders are these days, I guess.

[chuck6877]

We hit $83.09 today. What a crazy rise for one day...

[web]http://www.321energy.com/charts/tmp/chart.jpg[/web]

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chuck6877', 'W')e hit $83.09 today. What a crazy rise for one day...

[web]http://www.321energy.com/charts/tmp/chart.jpg[/web]

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'R')emember the DOE passed by the chance to buy oil at $50, $60, and even $70 earlier this year. They only started buying near $80.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'R')emember the DOE passed by the chance to buy oil at $50, $60, and even $70 earlier this year. They only started buying near $80.

[lawnchair]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'I') have difficulty believing they of all people misjudged the market so completely.

[Zardoz]

Oil Rises Above $83 a Barrel in N.Y. as Consumer Spending Gains

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rude oil rose above $83 a barrel in New York, approaching a record, after the U.S. government reported that consumer spending climbed more than forecast and the dollar fell to a record low against the euro.

The spending report signaled that the fallout from a weaker job market and collapse in subprime lending hasn't yet reached the biggest part of the economy, supporting crude oil demand. A lower dollar makes oil cheaper for customers who pay for it with other currencies.

[DantesPeak]

Interesting how this OPEC minister wasn't talking about oil prices just rising beyond OPEC's control - but soaring.

Perhaps he let that one slip out by mistake.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lgeria says OPEC output rise would not halt prices
Sat Sep 29, 2007 6:03pm BST

ALGIERS (Reuters) - Any decision by OPEC to expand oil output further would fail to stop crude prices from climbing, the Algerian official news agency APS quoted Algeria's energy minister as saying on Saturday.

"I think a further production rise would not stop oil prices from soaring because geopolitical problems still exist," APS quoted Chakib Khelil as saying.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed on September 11 to boost output by 500,000 barrels per day from November 1 but oil prices have continued to rise.

APS quoted Khelil as blaming the high prices on factors such as shortages of refining capacity, speculation and storms which had halted production in some countries.

OPEC will discuss the current oil situation in December when it meets at Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, Khelil said.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I')nteresting how this OPEC minister wasn't talking about oil prices just rising beyond OPEC's control - but soaring.

Perhaps he let that one slip out by mistake.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lgeria says OPEC output rise would not halt prices
Sat Sep 29, 2007 6:03pm BST

ALGIERS (Reuters) - Any decision by OPEC to expand oil output further would fail to stop crude prices from climbing, the Algerian official news agency APS quoted Algeria's energy minister as saying on Saturday.

"I think a further production rise would not stop oil prices from soaring because geopolitical problems still exist," APS quoted Chakib Khelil as saying.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed on September 11 to boost output by 500,000 barrels per day from November 1 but oil prices have continued to rise.

APS quoted Khelil as blaming the high prices on factors such as shortages of refining capacity, speculation and storms which had halted production in some countries.

OPEC will discuss the current oil situation in December when it meets at Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, Khelil said.

[Zardoz]

Back up to $83 again:

Oil Trades Near $83 After Rising on Unexpected Supply Decline

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rude oil traded near $83 a barrel after rising yesterday on an unexpected decline in U.S. supplies and a report that global inventories fell in the third quarter.

U.S. inventories fell 1.67 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said yesterday. Analysts expected a 1.08 million-barrel gain, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The International Energy Agency said yesterday that stockpiles in the 26 industrialized nations that it advises fell in the third quarter versus average gains over the past five years.

"Crude inventories are on the tight side which is supportive for prices,'' said Victor Shum, senior principal for Purvin & Gertz Inc. consultants in Singapore. "The news yesterday was quite bullish so the sentiment now is quite bullish.''

Crude oil for November delivery was at $83.02 a barrel, down 6 cents, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 2:12 p.m. in Singapore.

[chuck6877]

Oil has been hitting this $83 level for some time. There is some serious resistance here.
[web]http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$WTIC[/web]

The oil price is consolidating again for another rise. Looking at the charts we may see the price here for some time before we go up again. It's going to have to wait for the 50 day and 200 day moving averages to catch up a bit. The price will eventually go up and a lot though.

Any guesses on where the next significant resistance level will be once we bust through this one?

With the supply problems that are going to develop in the 4th quarter, I'm betting the next upswing will take us to $95/barrel within striking distance of $100/barrel which is a very fearful number for everyone.

Chuck

[DantesPeak]

Another record...

Turkey plans to invade Iraq, while the PKK says it plans to invade Turkey (the later not reported in this article):

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il Rises to Record on Concern Turkey May Invade Northern Iraq

By Robert Tuttle

Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a record $84 a barrel in New York on concern Turkey may seek to quell Kurdish rebels by invading northern areas of Iraq, a country with the world's third-largest oil reserves.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan told reporters his country would pursue the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, regardless of diplomatic costs, according to an Agence France- Presse report. Northern Iraq holds some of its largest oil fields, including Kirkuk, the source of much of Iraq's exports.

``If they start shelling across the border, the price is going to go up,'' said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at TFS Energy LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. ``When there is tension in the world, oil gets bid up.''

[Leanan]

I think we got a new close as well as a new intraday:

Oil Rises to Record on Concern Turkey May Invade Northern Iraq

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Crude oil for November delivery rose 61 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $83.69 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the contract touched $84.05, the highest since futures began trading in 1983. Futures are up 37 percent this year.

Today's intraday high was less than a dollar from the all- time inflation-adjusted high reached in 1981 when prices jumped because Iran cut oil exports. The cost of oil used by U.S. refiners averaged $37.48 a barrel in March 1981, according to the Energy Department, or $84.73 in today's dollars.

Commodity traders wield a greater influence on oil prices than Saudi Arabia and the world's other big suppliers, U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said today.

``The suppliers, to some degree, have lost control of the pricing,'' Bodman told reporters in Washington.