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Russian secondary peak approaches?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Heavy Oil Long Term Supply from Russia What form of cont

Unread postby Chuckmak » Tue 01 May 2007, 08:39:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'Y')ou send us petroleum.

We send you little pieces of paper with Dead Presidents on them.

K?


bwahahahahaha :lol:
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Re: Heavy Oil Long Term Supply from Russia What form of cont

Unread postby Newsseeker » Tue 01 May 2007, 08:43:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'Y')ou send us petroleum.

We send you little pieces of paper with Dead Presidents on them.

K?


Or cow licks. Some oil traders deal only in cow licks. Glad to see a poster from the Ukraine.
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Heavy oil proposal is a serious one

Unread postby ukrneftegas » Thu 03 May 2007, 13:16:43

Yes, I am really from Ukraine. But why do you treat my question to be unserious ???

I have a good proposal of oil products http://euroinvest.com.ua/ (See English version)

And my question concerned the form of international contract to be forwarded the buyer. I have only samples of local ones.
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Re: Heavy Oil Long Term Supply from Russia What form of cont

Unread postby basil_hayden » Thu 03 May 2007, 19:04:31

I'm not sure how much more simply we can word the contract than what I typed above.

Ta Ta, spammer.
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Russia to oblige UK oil companies to lower reserve estimates

Unread postby davep » Mon 27 Aug 2007, 10:36:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ussia stepped up the pressure on British-listed energy and mining companies yesterday with an influential Moscow regulator alleging that some of them were "cheating" investors by exaggerating their reserves.

Oleg Mitvol, deputy head of the environmental watchdog Rosprirodnadzor, called on the London Stock Exchange and other authorities in the UK to stamp out the alleged abuses.

His call comes at a time when the Kremlin has been taking back Russian assets from UK companies such as Shell and BP which it believes were obtained on the cheap when times were bad in Moscow.


UK oil firms cheating investors, says Russia


· Miners also accused of exaggerating reserves
· Fears of renewed Kremlin attack on resources sector

Terry Macalister
Monday August 27, 2007
The Guardian

Russia stepped up the pressure on British-listed energy and mining companies yesterday with an influential Moscow regulator alleging that some of them were "cheating" investors by exaggerating their reserves.

Oleg Mitvol, deputy head of the environmental watchdog Rosprirodnadzor, called on the London Stock Exchange and other authorities in the UK to stamp out the alleged abuses.

His call comes at a time when the Kremlin has been taking back Russian assets from UK companies such as Shell and BP which it believes were obtained on the cheap when times were bad in Moscow.

"I think they [investors] are already duped or cheated. I don't think we have to wait for a big crisis to occur in order to see this problem," Mr Mitvol said.

"When a proprietor-licensee has data which can be different from the state data, this is firstly abnormal and secondly a fraud. I can add that soon there will be results of our work with one company announcement which will significantly reduce reserves," he said.
...


Guardian
Last edited by davep on Mon 27 Aug 2007, 11:58:04, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russia to oblige UK oil companies to lower reserve estim

Unread postby Fishman » Mon 27 Aug 2007, 11:29:29

So one country is calling another on the carpet about their numbers. Will we see more of this confrontation? Up until recently the general rules was live and let live, don't ask questions. Is this the beginning of Russian attempt at European control? Not sure we can help you this time Europe, remember we're broke and "evil".
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Re: Russia to oblige UK oil companies to lower reserve estim

Unread postby SoothSayer » Mon 27 Aug 2007, 12:55:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fishman', 'S')o one country is calling another on the carpet about their numbers. Will we see more of this confrontation? Up until recently the general rules was live and let live, don't ask questions. Is this the beginning of Russian attempt at European control? Not sure we can help you this time Europe, remember we're broke and "evil".

Err .. cough ... hello .. this is the UK calling, this is the UK calling ... don't forget you have one good friend from Europe ... whose soldiers are dying alongside your people too ... as well as some from Canada and from the less cowardly European & other countries

Afghanistan:


There have been 650 coalition deaths -- 423 Americans, one Australian, 70 Britons, 67 Canadians, one Czech, four Danes, nine Dutch, two Estonians, one Finn, 10 French, 21 Germans, nine Italians, two Norwegians, one Pole, one Portuguese, four Romanians, one South Korean, 21 Spaniards, two Swedes -- in the war on terror as of August 22, 2007, according to a CNN count.

Iraq:


There have been 4,024 coalition deaths -- 3,726 Americans, two Australians, 168 Britons, 13 Bulgarians, one Czech, seven Danes, two Dutch, two Estonians, one Fijian, one Hungarian, 33 Italians, one Kazakh, one Korean, three Latvian, 21 Poles, two Romanians, five Salvadoran, four Slovaks, 11 Spaniards, two Thai and 18 Ukrainians -- in the war in Iraq as of August 24, 2007, according to a CNN count.
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Re: Russia to oblige UK oil companies to lower reserve estim

Unread postby Ferretlover » Mon 27 Aug 2007, 13:07:39

Ordinarily, I would assume that someone wanting to know the actual numbers of reserves would just be for a financial reason.
But, lately, I have begin to wonder, with the recent decisions and announcements made by Putin, why he wants to know how much oil the UK has...
Wouldn't the actual numbers of oil reserves, etc., held by any also be considered a national security issue?
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Re: Russia to oblige UK oil companies to lower reserve estim

Unread postby Twilight » Wed 29 Aug 2007, 17:25:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'O')rdinarily, I would assume that someone wanting to know the actual numbers of reserves would just be for a financial reason.

But, lately, I have begin to wonder, with the recent decisions and announcements made by Putin, why he wants to know how much oil the UK has...

You answered your own question. You too have noticed the hundreds of news stories about Russian energy companies' recent attempts at lobbying for M&A activity in Western Europe? And if you want to buy an asset, you want to know what you are buying, and buy it low, don't you?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'W')ouldn't the actual numbers of oil reserves, etc., held by any also be considered a national security issue?

Not in a free market - that right is forfeited.

There is commercial sensitivity in the details, but otherwise you make quarterly declarations of what you've got, to certain standards of accuracy and precision, all subject to audit, or regulators send the scary people over. Governments play their game elsewhere, as having a court tell them to STFU can cause embarrassment.

Conversely, energy data transparency is non-existent in dictatorships. Since it is a national security issue, they report whatever they like, whenever they like, and the only way to know the truth is through espionage.

I would say UK energy numbers* are less bollocks than Russian, but it serves their agenda to play them down.

* Published official interpretations are about as reliable as an assurance from Saudi Aramco or CERA, however.
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Re: Russia to oblige UK oil companies to lower reserve estim

Unread postby Ferretlover » Wed 29 Aug 2007, 17:45:12

I see. So it's a balancing act between finances And security.

Thanks, Twilight..
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(Some) Russian oil reserves only 1/8th of estimates?

Unread postby Fredrik » Sat 08 Sep 2007, 17:12:50

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N05235733.htm

It gives you an uneasy feeling when you think about all the places where actual oil reserves could be only a small fraction of what even PO experts like Simmons, Campbell and ASPO estimate...

This bit of news makes me hope that at least the allegedly huge Russian coal reserves really are there, to enable at least small or medium-scale CtL production to keep us above utter collapse for awhile. With global oil consumption in rapid decline, CO2 emissions will be pretty irrelevant for everybody by then.
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Re: (Some) Russian oil reserves only 1/8th of estimates?

Unread postby Bas » Sat 08 Sep 2007, 17:21:28

xcuse me but the very first line of the article says:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')everal foreign oil and mining companies operating in Russia have been overstating reserves by as much as 800 percent


so this is clearly about western companies overstating their reserves; it hardly puts Russian official reserves into question so I suggest you adapt your thread title accordingly.
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Re: (Some) Russian oil reserves only 1/8th of estimates?

Unread postby Fredrik » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 07:37:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'x')cuse me but the very first line of the article says:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')everal foreign oil and mining companies operating in Russia have been overstating reserves by as much as 800 percent


so this is clearly about western companies overstating their reserves; it hardly puts Russian official reserves into question so I suggest you adapt your thread title accordingly.


Sorry, my reading ability was temporarily overpowered by a sudden fist of manic doomerism. My bad.
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Re: (Some) Russian oil reserves only 1/8th of estimates?

Unread postby billp » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 12:15:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his bit of news makes me hope that at least the allegedly huge Russian coal reserves really are there




$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Powder River Basin in Wyoming and Montana is the largest known coal deposit in the United States with an estimated 550 billion tons of federally owned coal in the ground, but only 1.5 percent of it is currently available for mining, according to a new federal report.

The remainder is either off limits entirely because mining is prohibited by law, such as areas designated as wilderness, or is not being mined because the coal is unreachable or the land is being used for other purposes.

Greg Schaefer, spokesman for Arch Coal Inc., which operates two mines in the Powder River Basin, said the coal in the basin is shaped like a bathtub, with the edges near the land surface and then dropping deep underground in the middle.

‘‘That coal can be several thousand feet deep in the middle,’’ Schaefer said. ‘‘There’s no technology for that kind of operation.’’


http://www.helenair.com/articles/2007/0 ... 707_01.txt
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Re: (Some) Russian oil reserves only 1/8th of estimates?

Unread postby Twilight » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 12:20:20

Thanks, some very interesting observations in there.
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Re: (Some) Russian oil reserves only 1/8th of estimates?

Unread postby billp » Sun 09 Sep 2007, 23:20:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')owder River Basin in Wyoming


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So then, what's the prognosis for Russia?

Unread postby bob9000 » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 05:44:56

Hi, first time poster, loooooong time lurker. I remember when the first 'Another Record' thread started with the shocking news that WTI was now up to $45.90! Shock horror. Anyway...I have a question, and have searched extensively as to the answer, and have come up with nothing. So here goes...

No one's talking about Russian production. In about 2004, when I first came across the whole notion of Peak Oil, there was a general consensus that Russian oil production was riiight on the verge of peaking and was shortly to crash dramatically. Now, fast forward three years later, and the doomsayers were right about Mexico, right about Norway, right about Iran etc etc...and yet Russia just keeps right on pumping along merrily. Now I know damn well that exports are down, about 9.5% for the year if I remember rightly, yet actual production keeps inching on up ever so slightly, month after month.

Now Saudi Arabia's production has been totally and utterly scrutinized by many many wonderful and dedicated people, both here and at The Oil Drum. Its been fantastic, and much appreciated. The few snippets of data have given us so much information, and from that we glean that SA has probably peaked, and will now decline, albeit rather slowly as new projects come online to help prop things up.

Russia on the other hand, never seems to be mentioned much. Yet it produces more than SA, seems to have far less reserves, even if you don't believe SA's spurious revision, and has a truly brutal HL curve ahead of it.

So my question is, what's the status of Russia, and her individual fields? As I write this, WTI is over $81 a barrel. It seems to me that if Russia crashes now, the effect would be far greater than if SA did. And yet I can't seem to find a thing about it. Am I just stupid? Or is this a question that possibly needs more discussion?

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Re: So then, what's the prognosis for Russia?

Unread postby aldente » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 05:55:25

The answers to your questions will be evaluated and answered by the omni mighty PO Round Table as they fall.

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Re: So then, what's the prognosis for Russia?

Unread postby Oilbird » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 08:00:14

The figures I have found are as follows:

SAUDI: reserves 262.7 billion bbl; produces 9.475 mbopd (% change year-on-year 0%; exports 7.92 mbopd; rank (exports) 1.

RUSSIA: reserves 74.4 billion bbl; produces 9.40 mbopd (% change year-on-year +2.73%); exports 7.0 mbopd; rank not given but, by comparison with Saudi, presumably 2 or very close.

These figures are available on the web at http://www.indexmundi.com (as they are for most countries.). I'm not claiming accuracy for either country, especially not for the Saudi reserves. No doubt you, and others, will do the math. The interesting figure, I feel, is the 0% production increase for the year, for Saudi. This despite a perceived shortage in the marketplace.
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Re: So then, what's the prognosis for Russia?

Unread postby peasea » Tue 18 Sep 2007, 08:15:12

the officail figures are available as you state over the net. but if you're like me you'll note the jump in SA reserves in the , what 80's ? . this lead me to suspect that they have about half what is claimed , espcially when their reserves haven't dropped in all the years of production.

Can Russia out do SA , short term Putin needs the money but even with pre OPEC reserves SA has more . I their shoes I'd let Russia pump ahead for when they decline then
I'd get more for my oil!

P.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oilbird', 'T')he figures I have found are as follows:

SAUDI: reserves 262.7 billion bbl; produces 9.475 mbopd (% change year-on-year 0%; exports 7.92 mbopd; rank (exports) 1.

RUSSIA: reserves 74.4 billion bbl; produces 9.40 mbopd (% change year-on-year +2.73%); exports 7.0 mbopd; rank not given but, by comparison with Saudi, presumably 2 or very close.

These figures are available on the web at http://www.indexmundi.com (as they are for most countries.). I'm not claiming accuracy for either country, especially not for the Saudi reserves. No doubt you, and others, will do the math. The interesting figure, I feel, is the 0% production increase for the year, for Saudi. This despite a perceived shortage in the marketplace.
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