[Alcassin]

GDP fetishist, "average inflation" bigot and unemployment from creative accountancy Enron alike.
When a bomb is dropped in Iraq - GDP goes up.
When food is inflating and chemical goods are deflating - there may be deflation or inflation, this says you nothing on this "price basket", when you take an "average" from it, it's nothing, you have to measure by sectors and thse by subsectors and than by core products. If it is not I don't believe in it. Second thing - it doesn't contain monetary inflation at all.
Unemployment - tell me better the number of workforce each year. Tell me how many are underemployed and tell me the distribution of wealth by salaries + diminishing medium-class.
Underestimating problems is a good job for quasi-economists. Now you can go, buy & consume.

[FoxV]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'W')hen this all tanks, I'm sure there will be lots of wailing of why didn't we see? Why was no one talking about this?

[coyote]

Ah yes, I wasn't clear but I was talking about we consumers of the spew, not the producers of the spew.

('Consumers of the Spew.' I like that. Kind of Stephen Kingish. Is there an album title in there somewhere?)

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut what is bad for home sellers is good for home buyers. Most of us are both, which makes the whole phenomenon pretty much a wash.

[IslandCrow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '[')b]But what is bad for home sellers is good for home buyers. Most of us are both, which makes the whole phenomenon pretty much a wash....

[fluffy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'B')eautiful quote below (emphasis mine). Nope, nothing to worry about, folks... Good times are a-here!

[benzoil]

I should save this guy's piece along with my prized copy of Wired magazine with the cover story "The Long Boom" about how the tech boom had changed things forever and would go on for 20 years. And Business 2.0 with the cover story on "The Next Real Estate Boom" which predicts that edge cities will continue to sprawl outwards for the next 20 years.

[Windmills]

Alcassin, I think you mentioned most of the things that came to my mind regarding underemployment, massaged inflation numbers, and so forth. I'd add a few things...

Perhaps people are a little worried that much of this great economic growth has been fueled by borrowing, credit, and debt. They're also realizing that personal debt is getting out of control, as is government spending and debt. There's also the trade deficit and concerns about the strength of the dollar. The author downplays the pain of rising gas, college, and health care prices. Health care costs in this country are probably the single biggest reason that Americans have less upward economic mobility than countries with socialized medicine. The American dream can easily get wiped out by health care costs. He doesn't even mention the rapidly rising cost of food. It should also be noted that middle class incomes have been stagnant for 30 years; mainly the wealthy and rich have been getting richer from all this "economic growth."

[Dukat_Reloaded]

Web Page Name
You gota love this guy, I crack up laughing whenever I think about it.

[benzoil]

Lereah is a total shill. He'd lost all credibility so they replaced him. The new guy - Yun - is just as bad. Anyone who takes housing advice from the National Association of Realtors economist gets what they deserve.

Which leads me to this...

I think that Chapman is missing something important: as with global warming, immigration, and a host of other issues, the American people are way out in front of the politicians, bankers and journalists. People don't feel prosperous. Why? Take a look at median income vs. median home price vs. consumer debt. They know someone's getting rich, but its not them.

[Fiddlerdave]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')here will be buyers when the price drops low enough to attract them.

[Johnvancouver]

AP reports "Consumers Hold Key to Economy's Future:" Article
With reports like this, should one laugh or cry? As much as I dislike our consumer culture, I understand the importance of consumption to our economy. But to alleviate the impact of peak oil and possibly change the course of global warming, we need to dramatically reduce our consumption, energy consumption in particular. Say we are to reduce our consumption by 50%, that's good for conservation but how can we as a society handle the resulting impact on our economy such as massive job losses? What can we do to get out of this consumption based economy and still maintain and perhaps even improve the quality of a functioning society?

Some ideas (not necessarily mine) come to mind:
[1] much shorter work week, say 3 days per week, so that about twice as many people can be employed for the same number of jobs, of course, each at less pay.
[2] Do away with modern farming that is energy intensive and get more people to work on the farm. Organic food for everyone?
[3] Much higher taxes on less-labor intensive products or should I say higher taxes on energy intensive products?

Feel free to add your thoughts but in any case, to change from a consumption based economy and to have a meaningful reduction in energy consumption, I think we would almost certainly have to value manual labor more (reverse of the industrial and tech revolution?). By today's standards, policies that are needed to bring about such changes would be viewed as anti-business. We may never implement such polices volunteerily but PO may force that upon us.

[Ferretlover]

"[3] Much higher taxes on less-labor intensive products or should I say higher taxes on energy intensive products?"

I don't know why higher taxes would be assumed to help.
As gas availability declines, there will be fewer jobs, fewer employees, fewer products & services availabile.
No jobs, no money for taxes (or mortgages, utilities, etc).

[Ludi]

Incentives and education to help people reduce their need to earn.

More self-sufficiency/community sufficiency (home and community gardens and farms).

Sharing or gifting economy.

http://www.context.org/ICLIB/IC41/PinchotG.htm

http://www.gifteconomyconference.com/

[alokin]

I just read an article on the US budget 2008.
Will the amount of dept cause a crash?
Will there be riots because the slashing of spending in the social sector (And more tax cuts for the rich)?
A budget like this should be really embarrassing even for Bush who lacks obviously this sentiment.

[patience]

The budget is a PROPOSAL, that is, what Bush is asking for, and has to be approved by both houses of Congress. Not likely to be anywhere close to the same by the time Congress gets done with it. The debates about it will take a long time, and be full of lies by all. Any Senator or Representative that wants to be re-elected will be very careful not to cut things that anger big groups of voters, like Medicare.

I'd guess that Bush won't get near everything he asks for.

[patience]

If some really huge debt increase happens, (probably not) it would cause an increase in interest rates, making it more difficult for consumers to borrow money, because the govt. borrowed so much. This would hurt an already slowing economy.

I'm convinced there will be some restraint here in spending, but lots of bullshit about it all, seeking votes.

[Ferretlover]

The first thing that struck me about the 'proposed' budget is the increase in military spending and the decrease in social program funding....
What does that tell you?

[heroineworshipper]

Most of the budget is pension plans, social security, & paying off your boss's mortgage. The media won't mention that. That's why the $50 billion losses at Countrywide are so important. That's 3/4 of the rest of your life going to cover your boss's negligent borrowing.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heroineworshipper', ' ') That's 3/4 of the rest of your life going to cover your boss's negligent borrowing.