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Can wishful thinking replace oil?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby JPL » Tue 04 Sep 2007, 19:18:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'N')o, it really is amazing, JP. I was just poking at you. :)


OK no worries (grin)...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')TonyPrep, I wonder how common the "solution for business as usual" really is among us here on the board, though. I don't think it's very common. I think we've all pretty much settled on the idea things will change drastically no matter what we do. There are some who cling to the belief in the status quo, but I bet they are the small minority.


Strangely enough - I'm trying to push 'business as usual' myself right now - I'm scared that people are skating too close to an abyss. A lot of the issues discussed here have been around for a long time. The 'sustainability' debate is already mature. We should act in a similar fashion.

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Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 04 Sep 2007, 19:24:09

JP, I thought you were trying to push sustainability, not business as usual?


Business as usual certainly isn't sustainable and we should all probably be moving as quickly as possible toward an "Earth-centered" or "eco-friendly" or however you want to characterise it way of life which preserves and restores the Earth's life systems.


I thought that's what you're kind of about, JP. Am I confused?
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Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby JPL » Tue 04 Sep 2007, 20:48:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'J')P, I thought you were trying to push sustainability, not business as usual?


Business as usual certainly isn't sustainable and we should all probably be moving as quickly as possible toward an "Earth-centered" or "eco-friendly" or however you want to characterise it way of life which preserves and restores the Earth's life systems.


I thought that's what you're kind of about, JP. Am I confused?


Hi Ludi,

I'm thinking hard about the issues so forgive me if the position appears muddled. Really it isn't.

The debate appears to be changing as more people join it. Business as usual is not sustainable - I know that - I have been saying that for a long time. But what I am not prepared to do is frighten people into cowering before some sort-of doomsday alter on which I can joyfully present the entrails of my 'sustainable' philosophy.

We cannot build a sustainable, future society based on fear and paranoia. If this is the only method, I would now say it can't be done anyhow. Not in an atmosphere of panic. This issue for me is at the heart of the debate & I say we must get it right before we get it (totally) wrong.

For me it's all an issue of time-lines. Ignore the people that tell you time is short, it's ALWAYS been too short. But we also only have ONE shot at getting things right, and of unwinding 'industrial' culture in a civilised & orderly fashion. If it takes 50 years to do that, then I say we should take 50, or 100 if necessary. We HAVE to get this one right - and wondering around smashing people's belief-systems is not going to help anyone right now. In fact it will destroy the very thing we fight for.

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Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 04 Sep 2007, 20:54:43

I agree, we'd do better to focus on the positive actions we can take now, than to dwell on possible doom. :)
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Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 04 Sep 2007, 22:23:28

Myself, I'm interesting in tech solutions in of themselves; I like digesting this stuff. Also I'm concerned about doomerish or even equivalents of the Russia or Argentine post-collapse situation going down where I live (US), since as we all know it could become quite chaotic rather easily. Rather not face that any time soon. Anything that can cushion the blow somewhat I'm in favor of; I have my doubts about selling the Sustainable/Simple meme to many people, in the face of Madison Avenue trumpeting its antithesis screaming loud 24/7. Nothing wrong with trying, though, although good luck with those 30% who still approve of Bush's performance, etc.

In the face of big time collapse look out for hundreds of years of sanguinary warfare. Read up on post-collapse Rome, and the Dark Ages. I'd rather not foist that on billions of people alive now and yet to be born.

I suggested once that we need a few more labels beyond Doomer and Cornucopian, such as Pastoralist, which describes more than a few people here (including myself, I'll admit). Didn't go very far with that idea.
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Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 05 Sep 2007, 04:08:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') wonder how common the "solution for business as usual" really is among us here on the board, though. I don't think it's very common. I think we've all pretty much settled on the idea things will change drastically no matter what we do. There are some who cling to the belief in the status quo, but I bet they are the small minority.
Although I've noticed it a it more here, it seems to be a growing trend on TOD. I realise that there the main posts are more technical, in nature, and maybe it leads to a feeling that the problems can be compartmentalised and so solved in that way. There seems to be a growing trend to calculate X (uranium concentrations in the crust) or Y (total solar irradience) and thus conclude that the solution is technical.

JPL: So far as treading lightly, is concerned, I think it's inevitable that unless people are told of the consequences of business as usual, they will want to continue business as usual. I hear what you're saying about turning people off but things aren't going to change by offering them "it would be nicer if we did this" type of incentives. The consequences of business as usual are dire and I really think we need doomer scenarios (but heavily rationalised with evidence and sound reasoning) to make people understand the need for change. But I think it is a losing battle. With even many TODers appearing to turn to cosy thinking, I'm not sure the argument will ever be won.
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Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby JPL » Wed 05 Sep 2007, 11:40:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '
')
JPL: So far as treading lightly, is concerned, I think it's inevitable that unless people are told of the consequences of business as usual, they will want to continue business as usual. I hear what you're saying about turning people off but things aren't going to change by offering them "it would be nicer if we did this" type of incentives. The consequences of business as usual are dire and I really think we need doomer scenarios (but heavily rationalised with evidence and sound reasoning) to make people understand the need for change. But I think it is a losing battle. With even many TODers appearing to turn to cosy thinking, I'm not sure the argument will ever be won.


Yea, I'm scratching my own head about why the hell I'm trying to justify a metric I don't believe in. Maybe it's a zen thing. Let me put it like this:

The sustainability movement is IMHO too weak right now to help the world. Too few in numbers, still thrashing out the science and the ideaology.

We need more time. OK, most people here would argue that we don't have more time. What I'm saying is, we just have to find some. Maybe this can done by buying back into the existing metric for a while. I don't know, perhaps sitting on our fears about population, for instance. Or holding back on the anti-nuclear thing to concentrate on coal, stuff like that.

Hoh hum. OK you can all flame away now...

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Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 05 Sep 2007, 11:50:46

Wow, I could hardly disagree with you more, JP. We really need to make this transition now. We, those who care, need to model a different way of life so others can see it is actually possible and pleasant. This isn't "business as usual," it's walking away from business as usual to something else. I think we all realise it takes years to do, so why not start now and encourage others to do so with us? Why not start to take these steps, why take steps back? That's neither necessary nor desirable, in my opinion.
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Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby davep » Wed 05 Sep 2007, 12:12:36

From your posts so far, are we agreed that "Can apocalyptic thinking replace oil?" is foolhardy?

I agree that we should strongly advise any neophyte peakoiler that sustaining our current lifestyle is impossible. I also believe that telling them we're doomed is equally foolhardy.

We need more people pushing on with genuinely sustainable and suitably intensive production techniques. Telling people to build a bunker and await the inevitable zombie hordes will become a self-fulfilling prophecy if their energy is not invested in guiding our future path.

Anyway, kudos JPL. My place still resembles your "before" picture, without the timber-framed charm. :oops:
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Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 05 Sep 2007, 18:22:26

It's in trying to avoid the message, "we're all doomed", that the message, "we need to move to sustainability", is needed. Business as usual is not possible but it only translates to "we're all doomed" if we don't take that probable fact on board and work towards a different way of living together.

As so many people think that business as usual is possible and desireable (some posters here and on TOD even say that they are not about to throw in the towel on business as usual), the likelihod of an orderly (though not smooth) transition to sustainability is receding fast, in my opinion.
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Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 05 Sep 2007, 20:47:36

TonyPrep, how do you respond to those who say the message "we need to move to sustainability" is naive? Who say that it is too late to change and actually impossible to make a cultural change?
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Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby TonyPrep » Thu 06 Sep 2007, 05:48:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'h')ow do you respond to those who say the message "we need to move to sustainability" is naive? Who say that it is too late to change and actually impossible to make a cultural change?
I try to say that unsustainable societies must end. Whether that end is a crash or some kind of managed transition is up to us.

The response might be that if the end is a long way away, we can't possibly know how the world will look or what techologies might be developed in that time, so why worry about it now? To that, I'd say that the timescales are unknown, and we may have serious problems sooner, rather than later. The only rational reponse, in my view, is to assume that problems will occur sooner and acknowledge that only sustainable societies can be sustained, so lets try to make adjustments now.

Whether sustainability is possible, or not, is a separate question but I think its fairly clear that we are as far from sustainability as one could imagine, sucking up non-renewable resources as fast as possible, showing not much divergence from yeast behaviour. So the closer we can get to sustainability, the better off we'll be and the better positioned we'll be to adapting to resource shortages.

It's not something 99.99% of the population seems to want to contemplate. It's very hard to argue against beliefs.
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Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby JPL » Thu 06 Sep 2007, 16:18:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')ow, I could hardly disagree with you more, JP. We really need to make this transition now. We, those who care, need to model a different way of life so others can see it is actually possible and pleasant. This isn't "business as usual," it's walking away from business as usual to something else. I think we all realise it takes years to do, so why not start now and encourage others to do so with us? Why not start to take these steps, why take steps back? That's neither necessary nor desirable, in my opinion.


For point of interest, I'm a member of a non-proselytizing religious grouping that holds the Earth to be sacred. Living a sustainable life MYSELF is not something I'm about to give up on (BAD juju!!!)

What I'm concerned about right now is the obvious impracticability of 'fixing everything at once'. People in the mainstream are in a desperate hunt for solutions and there is only one 'quick fix' proposed so far (genocide) that would work. I have spent the last month or so on this forum jumping up and down so hard on that 'fix' that I hope it won't emerge again (here) for a while.

But it will come up again. I think a lot of it comes down to James Lovelock's doomer pronouncements with his 'Revenge of Gaia' thesis. He has done immense damage to the sustainability movement which could literally, take a generation to put right.

Until we can get this 'die off' scenario totally off the aganda I propose that the sustainability debate should become, like my own beliefs, non-proselytizing and a personal solution (and for close friends if they express an interest).

We may serve the cause better for now by demonstrating personal, quiet integrity, a reverence for the Earth in both thought and deed* and tolerance and understanding for the faults of those around us. Rather than waving bunches of withered organic tomatoes at them and ranting that the un-seasonal weather is all THEIR fault...

Sermon ends (grin).

JP

* Oops, sorry, accidentally proselytizing there (grin).
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Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 06 Sep 2007, 16:46:45

JP, Is there a way to get die-off "off the table"?

Is there a way to discuss sustainability/other ways of living without "proslytizing"? Or are you suggesting we just don't talk about it at all?


I guess, I'm not sure exactly what you're saying....sorry.... :(
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Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby timbo » Thu 06 Sep 2007, 17:05:27

JP like the pics and your intent to fix things up. One immediate thought though. Are you planning on insulating on the outside of all that lovely thermal mass(aka brick and stone) I'm seeing.
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Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby JPL » Thu 06 Sep 2007, 17:13:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'F')rom your posts so far, are we agreed that "Can apocalyptic thinking replace oil?" is foolhardy?


Weeeeel, if you want my honest opinion, apocalyptic thinking is a natural human response to crisis - trouble is, we tend to over-do it.

For point of interest, Europe had a famine crises in the year AD 1001 - caused by most farmers not bothering to plant the next year's crops (no point, because the apocalypse was going to strike at the turn of the calander). Caused a lot of problems (grin).

Q. What a bunch of clutzes? A. No. It was almost a given (if you lived at the time) that the world was about to end. End of the calender, Book of Revelations, all mapped out - simple.

Anyhow, as it turned out, life somehow carried on and it turns out the apocalypse was only mis-calculated by 1000 years, not incorrect in principle (grin).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')I agree that we should strongly advise any neophyte peakoiler that sustaining our current lifestyle is impossible.


Yes it is, because the mathematics is impeccible (grin).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')I also believe that telling them we're doomed is equally foolhardy.


Not necessarily, for the same above reason.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')We need more people pushing on with genuinely sustainable and suitably intensive production techniques. Telling people to build a bunker and await the inevitable zombie hordes will become a self-fulfilling prophecy if their energy is not invested in guiding our future path.


Precicely. We cannot predict the future and locking up in awe at the scientific & social-engineering achievements of the 19'th & 20'th centuries are not going to help us in the 21'st. This really is, a 'new millenium'.

My personal opinion - often stated here but VERY quietly - is that running out of fossil fuels was actually the best thing that could have ever happened at this stage of human evolution. It's a blessing, not a curse. Everyone just needs to think about the maths for a bit....

Ref: my above reply to Ludi, we also need to do this in private for a while (IMHO). Optomism takes a while to surface and whilst everyone else is shouting at each other about who didn't plant enough grain for next year - WE maybe need to take time out ,and relax a bit into our little permaculture havens with a serene and infuriatingly relaxed smile on our faces (grin)...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '
')Anyway, kudos JPL. My place still resembles your "before" picture, without the timber-framed charm. :oops:

Cool. Got any photos???

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Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby JPL » Thu 06 Sep 2007, 17:31:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timbo', 'J')P like the pics and your intent to fix things up. One immediate thought though. Are you planning on insulating on the outside of all that lovely thermal mass(aka brick and stone) I'm seeing.


Hi timbo!

The inside walls have been inner-skinned (varies in places, obviously) with around 20-40 cm (8-16 inches) of glass fibre held in place with a timber frame & plasterboard liner. Roof has the same but with alumina/poly layer as well.

We heat the place now (about 4000 sq ft converted) with a single 12 KW wood-fired burner & it is both warm & dry (providing you keep it going - takes about 3 days to fully cool if you let the fire go out and about the same time to warm it up again!)

The building design itself is from when Europe was in the 'Little Ice Age' (read - COLD) and has a lot of energy-capturing techniques. It is aligned with the long side facing exactly E-W so as to capture maximum solar. The windows on the South (sun) side are much larger than those on the North. The big fireplace is in the center of the building and the heat spreads out from there to gradually warm everything. In the upstairs areas there are old grain drying & storage facilities clustered around the chimney stack (sadly we have gutted these to create extra living space). One room on the ground floor is dug half-way into the ground and is much cooler than the others - this would have been the area for cheese production and meat storage, etc.

Basically, I am learning as I go along, that we have practically forgotten as much about building design in the last 350 years as we have learnt. Amazing (& very humbling too)...

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Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby Ferretlover » Thu 06 Sep 2007, 17:33:16

I am sorry, but I can see no other way around this thought: I can not see the majority of people in the US showing even the tiniest interest in sustainability until resources become seriously depleted.
The American way of life has been acquire & consume, believing that everything will always be available. For most, it is a case of changing only when there is no other choice, not, as we should have been trained, to think ahead and make choices that would prevent problems.

IMHO, those of us who have been practicing it for years, or just getting into it recently, need to continue to offer it as a course of action to whoever will listen (I don't think there will many-see above). There will be a few who will listen, and take the advice to heart, and thereby stand a better chance of surviving.
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Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 06 Sep 2007, 17:40:04

I agree, Ferretlover, most people aren't interested, and one can't make them interested, but one can encourage them to be interested, and offer examples and information for them when they're ready. The more people who have worked out different ways to live, the more choices/opportunities other people will have when the time for action is upon them.
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Re: Can wishful thinking replace oil?

Unread postby JPL » Thu 06 Sep 2007, 18:03:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'J')P, Is there a way to get die-off "off the table"?


Yes, by not participating in the 'die-off' debate. I had to go through that whole 'You Win' thread before I finally figured out that I had actually given strength to the thesis by attempting to argue against it. Wheras if it had just been ignored, eventually a 'certain person' whould have just been left alone talking to an empty room. A more just fate, I think, than continuing to give them a platform...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')Is there a way to discuss sustainability/other ways of living without "proslytizing"? Or are you suggesting we just don't talk about it at all?


Yes & no. Demonstrating a better way of living - yes. Waving banners in the street - no. Explaining things to people who are interested in what one is doing - yes. Telling everyone that they MUST adopt the same practices, or great harm will follow, no. Etc., etc.,

Some things are very difficult to put in a correct form of words. I bow at this point to a much wiser & more expressive man than I. Rudyard Kipling's 'If...'

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;

If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;

If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with wornout tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;

If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings - nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;

If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run -
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man my son!


(Or in some cases, obviously, a Woman).

JP

Edit: de-waffled...
Last edited by JPL on Fri 07 Sep 2007, 12:21:43, edited 1 time in total.
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