[TonyPrep]

As a long time (well, a couple of years) observer of the peak oil discussions, I've noticed an increasing amount of wishful thinking amongst even those who discuss the subject. It seems to take the form of some calculation of the amount of uranium in the crust and/or the amount of sunlight hitting the earth. From this calculation, they can see that we can grow energy use far into the future and, therefore, there is a "solution", though we may find some hardships as we transition. Such arguments appear to require a good dose of belief and don't really address the use of finite resources to harness the energy or the likelihood of being able to harness the energy at the required rates to satisfy growing demand, and without side-effects. Neither do they address the more general issue of finite resources or the other problems that growth brings.

Can we really power ahead on wishful thinking?

[SILENTTODD]

In a word? NO!

[ekaggata]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'A')s a long time (well, a couple of years) observer of the peak oil discussions, I've noticed an increasing amount of wishful thinking amongst even those who discuss the subject. It seems to take the form of some calculation of the amount of uranium in the crust and/or the amount of sunlight hitting the earth. From this calculation, they can see that we can grow energy use far into the future and, therefore, there is a "solution", though we may find some hardships as we transition. Such arguments appear to require a good dose of belief -
<snip>

[Olorin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'A')s a long time (well, a couple of years) observer of the peak oil discussions, I've noticed an increasing amount of wishful thinking amongst even those who discuss the subject. It seems to take the form of some calculation of the amount of uranium in the crust and/or the amount of sunlight hitting the earth. From this calculation, they can see that we can grow energy use far into the future and, therefore, there is a "solution", though we may find some hardships as we transition. Such arguments appear to require a good dose of belief and don't really address the use of finite resources to harness the energy or the likelihood of being able to harness the energy at the required rates to satisfy growing demand, and without side-effects. Neither do they address the more general issue of finite resources or the other problems that growth brings.

Can we really power ahead on wishful thinking?

[Ferretlover]

"Have there never been times when you learned something which turned your view of the world upside down?"

Yes. The decline of oil supply.

Can wishful thinking replace oil. Of course not.
Can thinking about further development of alternative energies prove beneficial? Yes. I am in favor of thinking.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'C')an thinking about further development of alternative energies prove beneficial? Yes. I am in favor of thinking.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ekaggata', 'I') fail to understand in what way quantitative and factual arguments based on real physics (sunlight intensity, Uranium concentrations) are considered "belief" whereas pure rhetoric or arguments based on authority are judged to be realistic?

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Olorin', 'C')ould it be that the wishful thinking is on your side? I get the impression you don´t even want to think about ways to mitigate the situation. That´s O.K. with me and a way to go but it´s not mine. Have you ever been to war?

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')Personally, I find thinking beneficial, but I find doing even more beneficial. I'm in favor of not just thinking, but taking action. We need to move beyond the thinking stage to the applying stage. I'm more interested in what people are doing with the information they've gotten from this board, than merely what they're thinking.


Wishful thinking, without action, doesn't do squat.


What are you all doing?

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ekaggata', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'A')s a long time (well, a couple of years) observer of the peak oil discussions, I've noticed an increasing amount of wishful thinking amongst even those who discuss the subject. It seems to take the form of some calculation of the amount of uranium in the crust and/or the amount of sunlight hitting the earth. From this calculation, they can see that we can grow energy use far into the future and, therefore, there is a "solution", though we may find some hardships as we transition. Such arguments appear to require a good dose of belief -
<snip>

[ekaggata]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')
This guys way ahead of you ekkagata in terms of what he's contemplating. He's not simply considering mobility resourcing...he's talking about resourcing the capitalist systems complete and exponentially growing usage...mobility, infrastructure...the whole works.

[Bas]

Humans are only capable of contemplating a handful of variables at the same time. When confronted with an overwhelming number of variables that, for instance, exist in any given society and try to calculate a future from that our minds get stuck and cannot but give up the attempt/conclude the whole world will crash as our brain crashes trying to understand it all; it's a powerful cause of doomerist thinking; and eventhough you can understand what I just wrote, the same trap still gets me on a regular basis and I'm sure will everybody else here.

(not to say there aren't plenty of 'legitimate' reasons to be pessimistic)

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ekaggata', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')
This guys way ahead of you ekkagata in terms of what he's contemplating. He's not simply considering mobility resourcing...he's talking about resourcing the capitalist systems complete and exponentially growing usage...mobility, infrastructure...the whole works.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'h')oly shit JPL that is cool!

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'h')oly shit JPL that is cool!

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'h')oly shit JPL that is cool!

[TonyPrep]

I'm not sure how the discussion turned the way it did. My post was about an observation that even those who appear to understand peak oil still look for a "solution" that allows business as usual, even if there is some pain in adjusting to new energy sources and new resources, generally. Some genuinely appear to believe in such a solution but without being able fully rationalise that belief. Maybe it's what Richard Heinberg calls the cultural trance of denial in which we are all embedded.

[Ludi]

No, it really is amazing, JP. I was just poking at you.


We all can certainly do something with whatever we start with, and if that's "nothing" then maybe we can find somebody with something and help each other.



TonyPrep, I wonder how common the "solution for business as usual" really is among us here on the board, though. I don't think it's very common. I think we've all pretty much settled on the idea things will change drastically no matter what we do. There are some who cling to the belief in the status quo, but I bet they are the small minority.