[Eli]

I would call it the credit crisis


Yeah Lore is really keeping a stiff upper lip. The Yen trade is unwinding, lbo money that has fueled this market is gone, the dollar is tanking, consumer spending is declining, home sales are tanking, ARMs are resetting and foreclosures are happening at a record rate,

did I miss anything? Oh,yeah we are running out of friggin oil!

We are screwed eight ways till Sunday.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'A')gain, while household income remains good, inflation stays in check, and unemployment rate remains low...

[emersonbiggins]

I was thinking

, but I like yours better, cube!

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '[')Lore, what color is the sky in your world?

[highlander]

Lore
review what Mark Twain had to say about statistics
The fact that energy and food are not part of the "core inflation" statistic says it all.

[Starvid]

On the other hand, global growth is strong, interest rates are still pretty low and stocks as an investment class are not valued higher today than 4-5 years ago (sure, they have increased in value, bot not faster than corporate profits).

Another thing to add to the upside is that the global economy has been shown to be far more resilient to high energy prices than anyone could have guessed 5 years ago.

Remember when oil was at $20 how they used to say that every $10 increase would shave 1 % off global growth?

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', 'D')ow downs 600 pints this week 400 pints today.

[Eli]

I appreciate Lores optimism even though I don't share it.

I like food and gas, and air conditioning I want this party to keep going just a little while longer, I hope he is right.


Keep an eye on the Yen if it keeps rising tonight in the Asian markets, then the carry trade is going to completely come a part, look for sell orders in the trillion dollar range.

Everything depends upon the Asian markets if they don't give to much up we will be alive for awhile longer, but if they go down in a major way people are going to be headed for the exit in a mad rush.

China just hit a high and their markets are more like the stock market of the 20's, panic there will be awful.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '[')Lore, what color is the sky in your world?

[firestarter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'O')n the other hand, global growth is strong, interest rates are still pretty low and stocks as an investment class are not valued higher today than 4-5 years ago (sure, they have increased in value, bot not faster than corporate profits).

Another thing to add to the upside is that the global economy has been shown to be far more resilient to high energy prices than anyone could have guessed 5 years ago.

Remember when oil was at $20 how they used to say that every $10 increase would shave 1 % off global growth?

[clueless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ure, you could produce a couple of graphs, and then I could refute your graphs with my graphs, and vice versa, but c'mon, are you telling me that an inflation rate that excludes, as highlander points out, food & energy is any number to be taken seriously? GDP is no better, as hurricanes and terrorism only make it go higher. Take another look, friend, this economy is on the brink of the abyss.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('highlander', 'L')ore
review what Mark Twain had to say about statistics
The fact that energy and food are not part of the "core inflation" statistic says it all.

[Novus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', 'O')n the bright side at least we have the FDIC this time round to protect us. On the dark side, in the world of negative savings, there's not much for them to protect.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '
')It will take a shortage of vital commodities to induce a crash, and when the reality of that sinks in then watch out. It is in nobody's (at least The Powers That Be) best interst in a crash, so, in my clueless opinon, a monetary event will not cause it.

[Homesteader]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', 'O')n the bright side at least we have the FDIC this time round to protect us. On the dark side, in the world of negative savings, there's not much for them to protect.

[clueless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')I don't thinking anyone here is calling this the bottom and, indeed, the more doomerish among us considers the bottom to be somewhere between the Stone and Bronze Ages.

[Armageddon]

The US government washes billions of dollars in drug money through the stock market to keep the economy appear healthy. The Dow Jones is a psychological indicator for most Americans, and as long as it is doing well, everything is fine. Keep spending and consuming !!!!

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'A')greed - But the 30 yr trends on housing is definitely inflationary and not deflationary. Will there be peaks and valleys, or course, but a return to 198o's housing prices ? Most likely not.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')he US government washes billions of dollars in drug money through the stock market to keep the economy appear healthy. The Dow Jones is a psychological indicator for most Americans, and as long as it is doing well, everything is fine. Keep spending and consuming !!!!

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', 'I') noticed no one has mentioned the current bloodbath taking place on the market. I'd say a 400 point drop is news worthy.