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What would you do with: Absolute power?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Steps to take

Unread postby holmes » Fri 20 Jul 2007, 20:31:02

And India and China are NOT sustainable. They are on a crash course. and for the life of me I can not understand why folks would even consider wanting to live like that! People enjoy living on top of one another with massive disease and virus flooding over their bodies. yuk.
"To crush the Cornucopians, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women."
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Fri 20 Jul 2007, 21:10:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', ' ')
yes PMS the truly important life sustaining things have been nearly destroyed.
I'll tell you, holmes, one of the most depressing aspects of all this. Doctors and Lawyers who sue dairy farmers and put them out of business. The burbs spread out and these big money cretins don't want to smell local food production, nevermind that the dairies were there before them. Ordinances that prohibit people from raising chickens because people don't want to hear roosters at dawn. Ordinances that prohibit people from drying their laundry on clotheslines. This is why I like reading your rants. These kinds of stories make me so angry. I feel as you do that these idiots deserve what's coming to them. As Shakespeare said, "First thing we do, is kill all the lawyers."
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby TonyPrep » Fri 20 Jul 2007, 22:46:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') just have to say, I get tired of people saying "we have exceeded carrying capacity" when we don't know the carrying capacity. We KNOW we have exceeded the carrying capacity for living this way. We can estimate the carrying capacity based on other ways.
I'd tend to agree with you, Ludi. In terms of living a satisfying life, the earth can probably support the population it has now, and maybe more. However, that would take an unprecedented orderly transition from the way we live now.

In an unorderly transition, I would expect significant loss of life, globally.

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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby TonyPrep » Fri 20 Jul 2007, 22:56:45

Organic Farming Can Feed the World
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')esearchers from the University of Michigan found that in developed countries, yields were almost equal on organic and conventional farms. In developing countries, food production could double or triple using organic methods, said Ivette Perfecto, professor at U-M's School of Natural Resources and Environment
I feel sure that productivity could increase further, if bio-intensive methods were used.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby Pops » Sat 21 Jul 2007, 14:59:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'I')t does seem like a death cult, doesn't it? Personally, I have no idea what the carrying capacity of the US is.

I have no idea of the caring capacity of the earth in a post oil world and really I don’t give a crap about anyone’s expert opinion since they have no more idea of the political and economic events of the future than me.

I do know some about the US though, and the reason we grow food as we do is because it is the most profitable in the current environment.

There are tens of thousands of small farms gone to scrub because they could not compete in that cheap energy and infrastructure environment. Knock out the support of cheap energy and those farms will once again become viable, in fact, they have just had the benefit of 50 or more years of lying fallow.

Certainly there are areas now in the Southwest and perhaps both coasts that cannot support their current high-density population without cheap transport. But I would bet a dollar (and I never bet more than a dollar) that given a sufficient rise in energy price before widespread shortage, there would be profit in a small operation.

I am barely hanging on with one such little place today; my hope is my grandkids will do fine here.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Sat 21 Jul 2007, 15:48:56

--
Last edited by Hawkcreek on Tue 21 Aug 2007, 13:08:45, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 02:26:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', ' ')In terms of living a satisfying life, the earth can probably support the population it has now, and maybe more.


Define a "satisfying life" and then make it world policy.

Do any of these qualify?

Note that only one considers all the limiting factors. Most just address food.

9 billion Basis=ecological footprint

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Standard of living lower than US current (1 hectare per person) and improvements in energy efficiency, food production, pollution control and preservation of biodiversity."

11 billion Basis=food

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')liminate disparity in energy consumption and food production technology between developed and un-developed world. A shift in the Western consumptive mindset toward a sustainable diet and pattern of life would be necessary.


2.5 to 10 billion Basis=food

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')stimate depends on level of consumption. The lower estimate corresponds to US level of consumption and the highest estimate to the level of people in India. Based on an estimated world grain harvest of 2.1 billion tons in 2030.


14 billion Basis=NPP

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ased on NPP for biophysical capacity, accounting for increased technology and "with ecological care and in the framework of an economically sound and socially-just development policy"

7.7 billion Basis=systems model

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ystems model results for supporting global population sustainably with enough food, consumer goods and services. Includes increased technology, pollution reduction and efficient use of nonrenewable resources.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he medians of the low and high estimates provide a range from 2.1 to 5.0 billion people. With the current Earth population estimated to be 6.1 billion people,24 the median range of sustainable carrying capacity estimates suggests that the Earth's population be reduced in order to be sustainable.

Now, 6.7 billion on track for 7 billion in 6 years.

http://www.ilea.org/leaf/richard2002.html
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 02:29:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') feel sure that productivity could increase further, if bio-intensive methods were used.


The possibility of that continued success is our biggest threat.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 02:32:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hawkcreek', ' ')Good to see that someone can tell the difference between probabilities and certainties.


You deny that the sequel to overshoot is a die-off?

That we are above nature and not subject to it's constraints?

No species that overshoots averts a die-off.

That is a biological certainty.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 02:35:06

Seems the dominant mindset here is the denial of basic biology and reality.

"We shall overcome the laws of nature."

Mother Nature bats last.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 08:51:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'D')efine a "satisfying life" and then make it world policy.

Do any of these qualify?

Note that only one considers all the limiting factors. Most just address food.
I have no doubt that we will not make the transition smoothly. This doesn't blind me to the possibility that the earth could support its current population, at least in terms of food and accommodation, without fossil fuels. I expect a die-back but don't believe it is technically necessary for sustainability.

A satisfying life? Well, people may have different ideas about this but I think that being able to live sustainably, with the help of friends and family, and still have some leisure time, would be satisfying. There would be many problems to overcome, and a problem solved is satisfying. Learning to find entertainment by one's own endeavours would be satisfying. Appreciating and living with the rest of nature would be satisfying. Living cooperatively in a self supporting community would be satisfying.

Of course, we need to grasp the nettle of population growth but I feel that a low energy satisfying lifestyle for everyone living today is possible, though I don't expect it to happen. No way.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby Revi » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 09:21:44

Rome went from over a million to maybe 14,000 in about 400 years. Once the triremes of wheat stopped coming it got harder and harder to live there. What's the difference between Rome and Phoenix? They are both unsustainable places that will have huge problems soon. Better get out soon.

I agree with Monte about the die off, but I don't intend to be among those who are going to die. Look at Russia. There was a die off there in the 90's and now Moscow is the most expensive city in the world to live in. People like us went from the middle class to the poor. That's why now is the time to put yourself in a sustainable position. Get that solar hot water system up while you have an income. Get some arable land while it's still affordable. Get out of the megalopolis, and into a small town or city that still has drinkable water, safe schools and streets. Rome fell, but people still lived a nice life hundreds of years after the fall in the provinces. They even had the bread and circus. It continues today. The bullfights in Spain are just a descendant of the Roman games (and just as gory and disgusting).

Some of those neglected farms could provide you with a living too. Farmer's markets are opening up to market what you grow. We know how much work and capital it takes to make land productive again. We have a small maple syrup operation, and it's very satisfying to make it work. It's all about getting things up and running now, while we have the resources to make it happen. Soon it will be hard to scrape up enough cash to keep the lights on and the truck running. Don't waste your money on foolish trinkets like SUV's and big screen TV's. It's way too late for that.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 13:20:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') expect a die-back but don't believe it is technically necessary for sustainability.


Then, you don't believe we are in overshoot?
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 13:28:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', ' ') That's why now is the time to put yourself in a sustainable position. Get that solar hot water system up while you have an income. Get some arable land while it's still affordable. Get out of the megalopolis, and into a small town or city that still has drinkable water, safe schools and streets.


Yes, but as Aaron remarked, that makes you a target for those who did not.

It makes for interesting times to come.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 17:41:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') expect a die-back but don't believe it is technically necessary for sustainability.


Then, you don't believe we are in overshoot?
There is no doubt, in my mind, that we are in overshoot for the kind of societies we have, the kinds of lifestyles we have, our methods of food production and processing, and so on.

All I'm saying is that I think it's possible that the earth could sustain its current population, with fairly satisfying lifestyles, if many changes are made, in a timely fashion (though the changes themselves could result in some die-back). I absolutely don't expect the world's societies to come to some consensus on those changes. So the current overshoot will result in significant die-back.

I'm not in denial about anything but I do try to keep an open mind on what's possible. What is not possible is to sustain economic and population growth.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 19:09:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', ' ')There is no doubt, in my mind, that we are in overshoot for the kind of societies we have, the kinds of lifestyles we have, our methods of food production and processing, and so on.

All I'm saying is that I think it's possible that the earth could sustain its current population, with fairly satisfying lifestyles, if many changes are made, in a timely fashion (though the changes themselves could result in some die-back).


Many studies have shown that if we shared the existing resources (energy, food, raw materials, etc) of the world equitably, we would all have to live like they do in Bangladesh.

Satisfying lifestyle?

No?

Now, subtract fossil fuels from that equation and connect the dots.

Not possible to sustain the current population with any conceivable energy or food production regime.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby dinopello » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 19:18:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')any studies have shown that if we shared the existing resources (energy, food, raw materials, etc) of the world equitably, we would all have to live like they do in Bangladesh.

Satisfying lifestyle?


Take a tour and see.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 19:40:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')any studies have shown that if we shared the existing resources (energy, food, raw materials, etc) of the world equitably, we would all have to live like they do in Bangladesh.

Satisfying lifestyle?
Like most issues surrounding peak oil, that's just an educated guess. No, I wouldn't regard it as a satisfying lifestyle.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')ot possible to sustain the current population with any conceivable energy or food production regime.
That's one opinion. I don't take it as fact. I'd like to see a study that researched how people could live, if the world treated this as a global problem and agreed on global solutions (not just country solutions) to land and resource allocation, and food production methods.

But don't get me wrong. In case I've not made it abundantly clear, a smoothly transitioned move to a genuine attempt at sustainability is as near to impossible as one could get. I don't expect it to happen. Thus, it is probably a moot point as to whether the world could sustain 6.5-6.7 billion people or not. You state, categorically, that it cannot. I have a different opinion but I have very similar expectations.
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 19:56:42

Look, go to dieoff.org and read up on every prior Empire before ours, and remember that every Empire was formed by people just as smart as we are.

Ours will be the biggest, most spectacular crash of them all! We're no.1!!
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Re: Steps to take

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 20:36:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')ot possible to sustain the current population with any conceivable energy or food production regime.
That's one opinion. I don't take it as fact. I'd like to see a study that researched how people could live, if the world treated this as a global problem and agreed on global solutions (not just country solutions) to land and resource allocation, and food production methods.


I cited and linked to several.

What you don't seem to grasp is that this population would never have been possible without fossil fuels.

It may be possible to temporarily increase carrying capacity by further takeover or drawdown, but it is not sustainable and will result in an even greater crash.
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