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Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby Ludi » Sat 14 Jul 2007, 14:37:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('return1880s', '
')We can logically deduce earth's capacity using the laws of biology and looking centuries ago. Population growth was pratically zero because diseases, famine and wars balanced out the number of offsprings. Biologically, one needs to do the math how much resources we have and how much food can be grown to feed how many people. Famines are already a reality and getting worse.


Ok, look, 1880s. You aren't even aware of history - you think there was virtually no technology is the 1880s for pete's sake! There were automobiles in the 1880s (Benz and Daimler were making some models). There was transatlantic telegraph service, public electric plants (1882),the London Underground ("the Tube")....

There's not much reason to suppose you have much knowledge of biology and the ability of "looking centuries ago." :)

Famine and war are not necessarily matters of carrying capacity, they are matters of culture. Culture is not set in stone. Our current population definitely exceeds the carrying capacity of Earth for humans living this way, but not necessarily for humans living another way. This is not biological, it is cultural.
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Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby mel1962 » Sat 14 Jul 2007, 15:20:51

Boy, I sure do appreciate the debate and is one of the most interesting subjects regarding the future after peak oil.

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I remeber my grandfather who was born in 1911 and would say to me many times "anyone who tells you the good old days were good, is full of crap! These are the good old days! I never liked going outside to the outhouse and would not be alive today without modern medicine." [smilie=qgaraduate.gif]

He is right this maybe as good as it gets, but I think we are all losing sight that there are people who live around us, well at least those in the great lakes area that don't use electricity and have a very comfortable life, but work very very hard!

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[align=center]THE AMISH![/align]

An Amish Web Page? How is that Possible!8O

Well anyway, if you want to become Amish now, it will be great training. Go to the FAQ on the web site to find out how to join the an Amish community near you!
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Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby Ludi » Sat 14 Jul 2007, 15:25:16

The Amish have chosen a very hard way of life. There are other ways to live a low-energy life which are not so hard.
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Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby mel1962 » Sat 14 Jul 2007, 15:46:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')he Amish have chosen a very hard way of life. There are other ways to live a low-energy life which are not so hard.


Depends if you have access to solar and wind, my pointing out the Amish lifestyle is that what they do is a hint of the future. They drive horse and buggy, bicycle, farm with manure, use draught animals, candles and gas lights, wood stove, dry their clothes outside in the winter or summer, etc.
:roll:


I am not saying you have to adopt their harsh lifestyle, but some of those aspects will be common among the future generations.
8O

I don't think you can live a low energy lifestyle and expect to lay in the hammock all day! Regardless, you will be working harder than now to survive.
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I think the Amish give you an idea of the skill set necessary for the future after peak oil!
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Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby Ludi » Sat 14 Jul 2007, 15:50:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mel1962', 'T')hey drive horse and buggy, bicycle, farm with manure, use draught animals, candles and gas lights, wood stove, dry their clothes outside in the winter or summer, etc.


Their way of farming is very labor intensive, it is possible to raise food in ways which are much less difficult, and more sustainable.
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Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby mel1962 » Sat 14 Jul 2007, 16:20:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mel1962', 'T')hey drive horse and buggy, bicycle, farm with manure, use draught animals, candles and gas lights, wood stove, dry their clothes outside in the winter or summer, etc.


Their way of farming is very labor intensive, it is possible to raise food in ways which are much less difficult, and more sustainable.


Give me an example?
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Their farming methods are the standard methods used in the 19th century. Even if you plant your own garden, you will have to hoe by hand, weed by hand and probable not have access to fertilizers other than manure, no access to hybrid seeds and no insecticide.
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I think you are overally optimistic and think the Amish are too stupid to find an easier way. I believe there way is the most efficient way given their constraints, which maybe our constraints in the future. IMHO!
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Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby TheTurtle » Sat 14 Jul 2007, 16:21:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')urtle, they aren't talking about if there are other ways to live ...Is it likely folks will transition to a different way fast enough to avoid a die-off? No, of course not. But that is not the same as saying the Earth's carrying capacity is 1 billion and billions must die.


OK, Ludi. I get the distinction and do not disagree with you. :)
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Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby I_Like_Plants » Sat 14 Jul 2007, 16:31:07

Those who have lived that way say the Amish way of life freakin rules.

Author Eric Brende lived a more strict life than most Amish and thought it ruled. Read his book, "Better Off". True, he got a bit of burnout near the end, because he was not socializing as much as Amish do, and little things like not labeling their home canned foods so they felt like they were always eating the same thing. They needed more socialization and more stuff like those home handicrafts people used to do in down times like winter - mending harness and things like that. Maybe a hobby or two, woodcarving for him, needlework for his wife.

He eventually opted out of "minimite" life and went to a city, where he lives without a car, and he and his wife run a bed and breakfast and he runs a pedicab company.

This is an MIT "Best and Brightest" type who opted for this. I'd not be a bit surprised to hear about him re-joining an Amish community in a few years.
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Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby Ludi » Sat 14 Jul 2007, 18:04:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mel1962', 'T')heir farming methods are the standard methods used in the 19th century. Even if you plant your own garden, you will have to hoe by hand, weed by hand and probable not have access to fertilizers other than manure, no access to hybrid seeds and no insecticide.



What we typically think of as "farming," annual plow agriculture, as practiced by the Amish and many others, is the most labor instensive way to live ever invented. It is true the Amish are very good at this, but that doesn't take away from the fact that it is the most difficult way of obtaining food ever devised by humans.


An easier way to raise food is horticulture/permaculture, which relies more on perennial plants and polycultural systems, rather than the typical monoculture of annual plow agriculture.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think you are overally optimistic and think the Amish are too stupid to find an easier way. I believe there way is the most efficient way given their constraints, which maybe our constraints in the future. IMHO!



I do not by any means think the Amish are stupid! I think they cling to their own traditions; they are known for doing so. Their traditions require hard work. They value hard work, which is their choice.


I do in fact garden. I don't hoe, I don't weed, and I use both animal and plant "manures" (compost and mulch). I certainly do not use insecticide, which generally causes more work than it saves. Most plants I grow are not hybrids. Currently I spend virtually no time gardening, but I still have some food to eat each day from the garden.


See link below for Biointensive for ideas about easier, more efficient, and more sustainable food-growing methods. Also "Permaculture: a designers manual" by Bill Mollison and "The One-Straw Revolution" and other books by Masanobu Fukuoka.


I am, in my own opinion, not "overly optimistic" - because I see people promoting difficult ways of life when we have other options, choosing even it seems to me, to "return" to a way of life which we know is very difficult, when there are other choices, other knowledge. It's my (probably vain) hope to try to promote these other ideas and I hope save at least a couple of people from working harder than they need to. We don't have the traditions of the Amish, we can make our own traditions, make our own way of life. I don't think it will be easy, but it needn't be as hard as some other ways such as "the standard methods used in the 19th century." This is the 21st century, we don't need to return to the 19th century.
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Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby joewp » Sat 14 Jul 2007, 19:19:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I_Like_Plants', 'T')hose who have lived that way say the Amish way of life freakin rules.


Apparently this has been common throughout the years. According to Charles C. Mann who wrote 1491:


Link
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I asked seven anthropologists, archaeologists, and historians if they would rather have been a typical Indian or a typical European in 1491. None was delighted by the question, because it required judging the past by the standards of today—a fallacy disparaged as "presentism" by social scientists. But every one chose to be an Indian. Some early colonists gave the same answer. Horrifying the leaders of Jamestown and Plymouth, scores of English ran off to live with the Indians. My ancestor shared their desire, which is what led to the trumped-up murder charges against him—or that's what my grandfather told me, anyway.


It seems once people get a taste of a less complex lifestyle, they love it.
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Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby mel1962 » Sat 14 Jul 2007, 19:34:41

Ludi, I appreciate your explanation, but I have another question how much food do you store? What happens if you have 3 months of cold weather in Texas? Your method may work on a small scale, but not on larger scale. You need to be able to store enough food to outlast any natural or man made crisis.
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I am interested how big is your garden and how many people will it feed?
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Thanks for the debate!
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Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby I_Like_Plants » Sat 14 Jul 2007, 21:56:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')What we typically think of as "farming," annual plow agriculture, as practiced by the Amish and many others, is the most labor instensive way to live ever invented. It is true the Amish are very good at this, but that doesn't take away from the fact that it is the most difficult way of obtaining food ever devised by humans.

I do not by any means think the Amish are stupid! I think they cling to their own traditions; they are known for doing so. Their traditions require hard work. They value hard work, which is their choice.


Yes this is true - they value work, feeling it makes them closer to God. That's a strong strain in Western Christian thought by the way. The Indians and generally, saner people, always thought we were fuckin' crazy. There are much less labor-intensive ways to live. They may involve eating bugs (yumm!) and acorns and you wash your animal hide/leather clothes at times in warm weather when you wash yourself in the stream, but for general free time, having lots of shoot-the-breeze and invent-new-songs time with the tribe, they can't be beat.
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Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby I_Like_Plants » Sat 14 Jul 2007, 21:57:58

I need to add that compared to our own high-stress high-work-hours, extremely individual/alienated life, even the Amish high-labor model looks good and those who have left our corpculture for it, have loved it.
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Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby Pops » Sat 14 Jul 2007, 23:28:34

I take it few of you have Amish neighbors.

I don’t pretend to know what is in another’s heart but though theirs’ may be in the right place, they are just as beholden to the teat as all the rest of us.

Sad but true.
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Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby I_Like_Plants » Sun 15 Jul 2007, 00:06:05

Pops you make a good point/

Most Amish now are farming less and working longer and longer hours making "handicrafts" in what amount to home factories. They're finding more and more weaselly ways to let technology intrude into their lives.

The group Eric Brende lived with/near were considered very primitive and ultra-conservative by mainstream Amish.

The stuff I've found in books about the Amish mostly dates back to the 1950s or 60s, and everyone lived much more primitively then than now.
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Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby manu » Sun 15 Jul 2007, 02:43:14

I believe that it will be sort of like the Amish lifestyle in the colder parts of N.America. If you are in a milder climate on the West coast or in the South it may be somewhat easier. To live in the North you will have to hunt and fish to survive. Except for a few people who already have their trip together. But with global warming coming maybe the winters in the North may become milder. For someone coming from a modern lifestyle to a Native American lifestyle, get real, it will be a harder transition than to an Amish lifestyle. Try dressing a deer, or making a bow by hand.
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Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 15 Jul 2007, 03:39:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('manu', 'I') believe that it will be sort of like the Amish lifestyle in the colder parts of N.America. If you are in a milder climate on the West coast or in the South it may be somewhat easier. To live in the North you will have to hunt and fish to survive. Except for a few people who already have their trip together. But with global warming coming maybe the winters in the North may become milder. For someone coming from a modern lifestyle to a Native American lifestyle, get real, it will be a harder transition than to an Amish lifestyle. Try dressing a deer, or making a bow by hand.

My doomerish version of US future is nothing like above.
Situation would develop as follows:
1. Crippling energy crisis arrived.
2. Authoritarian rule installed out of necessity, just to ensure basic order. Most of provisions of Constitution abolished.
3. Additional 5-10 years of relative stability secured due to measures from 2 above.
4. Dieoff begin to unroll. Mainly due to collapse of medicare/medicaid etc. Young/healthy are largerly unaffected but overall life expectancy drops by 10-20 years.
5. Massive efforts are undertaken to proceed with transition to more sustainable life style (by that time resource wars are of so low EROEI, that no longer worth to run).
6. Large part of population coerced to take part in agricultural activities. Debt is used as instrument of coercion. By this time it will be seen extremely unpatriotic not to pay debt.
7. Corporate capital/wealthy Americans/ruling elites are investing in land and becoming owners of large latyfundial properties.
Poor and indebted are forming peasant/worker class.
8. Something alike "Confederation won a war" scenario is settling as permanent way of life, perhaps with a bit more technology around.
Higher tech weaponry, which could be always produced in sufficient quantities will land into hands of ruling elites.
That will be enough to ensure futility of any revolutionary uprising against the system.

There is one major wild card not considered here: worldwide stockpiles of nukes.
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Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby TheTurtle » Sun 15 Jul 2007, 09:13:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('manu', ' ')For someone coming from a modern lifestyle to a Native American lifestyle, get real, it will be a harder transition than to an Amish lifestyle. Try dressing a deer, or making a bow by hand.


I have dressed game and made bows (and atlatl, which I actually prefer) by hand. I would much rather do that again in the future than toil behind a plow. Of course, I would gather game by trapping rather than hunting ... easier and faster payoff, I think.

YMMV. :)
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Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby manu » Sun 15 Jul 2007, 10:30:36

I agree there will be many years of who knows what before the dust settles and whoever is left can live any type of sane life.
Some areas will be affected worse then others.

Turtle: Maybe you will start a new tribe along the Miss. sort of like the Mandan Native Americans. They did'nt move South in the winter like the Dakota and had huts similar to what was popular in Norway at the time of the Vikings. They lived along the Missouri.
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Re: Will we be returning to a life of the 1880s?

Postby Ludi » Sun 15 Jul 2007, 14:02:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheTurtle', 'I') have dressed game and made bows (and atlatl, which I actually prefer) by hand. I would much rather do that again in the future than toil behind a plow. Of course, I would gather game by trapping rather than hunting ... easier and faster payoff, I think.

YMMV. :)



I think many people envision toiling behind a plow because they think of that as "life in the past," from a European background, they don't think of waaaaay back when their ancestors were hunter-gatherers. If you need to pick a life from the past, at least pick an easier one!
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