[Eli]

The fact is in the west we live too long. Modern medicine is able to keep people alive long past there usefulness. I know a lot of old people who just want to kick it and get off this rock.

We will not be returning to the 1880s technology will survive but the most energy intense things will not.

It is going to be a very sad place. There will be no need for people who work in the auto industry, travel and tourism will dry up, a lot of people in retail sales will lose their jobs, the restaurant industry will collapse, Realtors will be begging for food, yup if you are in an industry that is not absolutely necessary your screwed.

[Novus]

There is not a chance at going back to 1880. The reason is not peak oil but peak soil. The western civilization die off won't happen because we cannot power our cars and TV's but because our soil is biologically dead and crop yeilds would fall 90% in one season without fertilizer. When the end crash does come it will be so cataclysmic it will be something straight out of Easter Island and the Donner Party.

[Micki]

Return1880 wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell I am aware of peak oil and am researching what action to take. This places me ahead of most people. I am more worried about my parents who don't believe in peak oil. How can I help them?

[return1880s]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'T')here is not a chance at going back to 1880. The reason is not peak oil but peak soil. The western civilization die off won't happen because we cannot power our cars and TV's but because our soil is biologically dead and crop yeilds would fall 90% in one season without fertilizer. When the end crash does come it will be so cataclysmic it will be something straight out of Easter Island and the Donner Party.

[manu]

The land in the U.S. in most places is very depleted and it will take time with natural composting to regain its fertility. First you will have to have the animals, and then you will have to know how to compost properly. It is sort of a lost science in the Western world.
Also because of pesticides the pests will be there in large numbers but the predators have been depopulated. Like the birds. That will be another big problem. Also growing the huge tracts of the same crop and same variety of crop ( one type of wheat) has increased pests.

[Starvid]

Double post.

[Starvid]

1880's? Come on.

Non-military oil use was pretty much zero before 1945, with the exception of the US.

With the currently stagnating global population it will take ages and ages to reach the per capita oil consumption of those times, even withhigh decline rates. Worst case, the we're looking at life as in a hightech version of the 1950's. And that wasn't all bad.

Smaller and weaker cars used not for commuting but for Sunday trips. With Ipod's.

And all the dieoff stuff, well... We haven't had starvation in this country since the very 1880's. Starvation stopped not because we got oil but because we got railroads, so grain could be shipped to the places where crops went bad.

And before you start moaning about hydrocarbon-based fertilizers and pesticides, look up what "marginal utility of a barrel of oil" means. Or to put it another way: who do you think will be able to pay most for hydrocarbons, the SUV driver or the farmer, when the farmer can push all his costs onto consumers who have no choice but to buy his products?

edit:

So, what are you going to do about all this? Well, I ahve some free advice. Go to college. Preferably engineering, though as the hypocrite I am I am into political science and economy and such stuff. Cut your energy consumption. Smaller car or none at all, better heating system in your home like a heat pump and/or solar heating. Insualtion, insulation, insulation! And put at least part of your savings in oil stocks like ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Chevron, Conoco etc.

[Brasso]

It's really anybody's guess how things are going to pan out, but I think we can all agree it's not going to be pretty. The most useful information I've found has been Dmitry Orlov's essays on LATOC. They seem to point to a time of poverty and hardship, but still a way off the mad max world! It's interesting to note that a big die-off in Russia was due to people drinking themselves to death, rather than starvation!

Part 2

Part 3

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Brasso', ' ')It's interesting to note that a big die-off in Russia was due to people drinking themselves to death, rather than starvation!

[frankthetank]

Population is the killer.



Edit: hard to read, but 1880 shows a population of 50million souls, and today that number is over 300million. 250million more mouths to feed all drugged up on cheap oil. I think an 1880 person, or 300 million of them, could probably survive in this country without much oil, but not a 2007 person living an 1880 lifestyle.

[Pops]

Well, my crystal ball recently melted into something like a crystal pancake, consequently I can’t see very far into the future. Actually it isn’t real crystal, it’s a polycarbonate knock-off made by a little 14-year old girl in China working for a nickel hour and purchased at Wally’s.

No matter, it does seem to me the knowledge gained over the last 150 years will not evaporate overnight. As well I was listening to a story on NPR this morning about the boom in Green stocks: alt. energy, carbon reduction, etc. There is still a pile of money out there and as the price of oil continues to rise and surprisingly the concern about climate change, there will be a corresponding increase in investment toward R&D by those seeking a profit.

Round-Up and Round-Up Ready seed reduced the fuel used to grow corn by about 50%, conservation tillage and no-till even without patent seed and herbicides reduces all pre-plant tillage to zip or nearly zip. Management Intensive Grazing can reduce inputs to dairy operations by a substantial percentage and in beef production can increase the carrying capacity of a given piece of ground compared to free-range while improving the soil to boot.

Just a couple of examples that I know of regarding ag and I am sure there are thousands more. So I hope we never return to the 1800s and if we do it will surely be a disaster – The dust bowl was not caused by drought as every other year there were floods that did as much damage to the soil as no rain. It was caused by straight-line plowing, elimination of windbreaks, monoculture, no cover crops or even stubble on idle fields, elimination of native grasses and overgrazing.

So yea, the population will ultimately decline (I think) but don’t start building Thunderdome just yet.


Just another aside, I had to laugh when doing a promotional piece this week for the California Highway Patrol widows and orphans group when I saw one of the prize sponsors was Peak Travel in San Jose – how is that for ironic.

[Jellric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't understand why anyone says we will be back to AD 1200 or something. There is technology and medicine that we know that wasnt the case long ago. No peak oil can ever erase our memories of modern technology.

[return1880s]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '1')880's? Come on.

Non-military oil use was pretty much zero before 1945, with the exception of the US.

With the currently stagnating global population it will take ages and ages to reach the per capita oil consumption of those times, even withhigh decline rates. Worst case, the we're looking at life as in a hightech version of the 1950's. And that wasn't all bad.

Smaller and weaker cars used not for commuting but for Sunday trips. With Ipod's.

And all the dieoff stuff, well... We haven't had starvation in this country since the very 1880's. Starvation stopped not because we got oil but because we got railroads, so grain could be shipped to the places where crops went bad.

[Pops]

A lot of your questions and comments have been discussed to quite an extent hereabouts.

Why not read around a little?

[frankthetank]

Just a recent personal observation, but last week we went 4 days without water while i brushed up on my newfound plumbing "skills" (its good now). My wife stayed with her mom the whole time. I asked her what she would do if this were permanent (well pump requires electricity, water is heavy)...no answer. I think keeping the lines filled with juice will ease some of the pain, but no or limited amounts of gasoline are going to drive some people to do bad things. I have little hope after about 2020, give or take a few.

[whereagles]

Short answer to the title question:

No.

Scientific knowledge is not related to energy consumption. The latter can go up or down, but the former is only loss through generalized destruction of archives and I don't think that's expectable.

We will live simpler lives, cycling more and driving less, but will keep most of our electronic gadgets and assorted facilities.

[MC2]

Great cross section of our diversity in the replies already. Of all the posters, "Pops" has it the most "right," I would say. Plenty of posters are rather transparent, though, in obviously projecting their own values (or null-values) upon the question you asked. Love diversity, don't you?

You can safely discard the feedback that says stuff like "yeah, except it will go back further in time" and "there will be only 80-100 million in the USA." Imagine instead, a world that's a lot like today, only higher tech, lower energy, higher efficiency (one of the benefits of Bucky's "ephemeralization") more de-centralized, and healthier, overall. Also, smarter.

One thing the internet revolution has done (aside from making the ravings of lunatics easily accessible to all!) is to make knowledge and applications of that knowledge much more democratically available. Don't expect that revolution to suddenly wink out, just because oil is pricier and in shorter supply. Remember ephemeralization (or google it!). Technology just keeps getting better and cheaper. People are pretty darn resourceful when it comes to their survival. Expect more good than bad things to happen in America and its allies in the march toward human freedom and enlightenment. As for the undeveloped and insane places, stay away.

Unless, of course, you're in the majorly-disaffected ilk, of which group so many here appear to be representatives, that just don't want good things to happen to America and the rest of the developed world. There are major problems that must be solved, including not only oil, but population, of course. But, no, we don't go back to the 1880s. Keep your head up!

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whereagles', 'W')e will live simpler lives,

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', 'O')ne thing the internet revolution has done (aside from making the ravings of lunatics easily accessible to all!) is to make knowledge and applications of that knowledge much more democratically available.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whereagles', 'W')e will live simpler lives,