PeakOil is You
It's here
Re: It's here
by Smudger » Mon 02 Jul 2007, 07:58:33
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BastardSquad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bioman', ' ') Just trying to get at your psychology here.
"Cast not your pearls before the swine."
Sorry MQ are you avoiding the question by any chance...
-
Smudger - Peat
- Posts: 180
- Joined: Thu 05 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
- Location: Great Britain
Re: It's here
by Smudger » Mon 02 Jul 2007, 08:43:31
I have to say a lot of what Bioman has said I gently agree with, I think the world certainly has the capacity to feed 9bn people. that may not mean everyone has a top lifestayle but it is certainly absolutely possible.
I also do sense that there is the "we want disaster and doom to happen" brigade here on on other sites. From a psycological point of view this stems from an inherent "puritanical" brain washing over hundreds of years where humans may not enjoy things too much and if you do then you will be "punished". the result is a near subconscious need to indentify the next punishment from god for enjoying ourselves. the result is a warped sense of re-assurance where an impending doom gives a person "re-assurance" that everything is fine and in order as enjoyment will soon be balanced with pain. This process is so engrained in our minds that atheists may not be aware of its origins in fundmentalist christians of the early middle ages. (there are similar themes in most other main religions by the way)
And to an extent this is no bad thing. I myself although i recognise that it is part of the echo of these middle age dont enjoy yourself mentality do value hard work= reward and dont boast or be overtly rich as these are bad things.
A doomers success could arguably be Y2K as the panic that arose probably help minimise the problem.
Where i find it sinister is a hard core group who ,mad though this may seem, "cant wait for PO" or "hope when it comes will teach those nasty consumers a lesson" etc. can you imagine!!
I have to disagree with Bioman on Peak Oil occuring in 2040. PO is for my money 2010 and given timescales it will cause economic/social problems however my sense like Biomans is that once the penny drops there will be a massive change in lifestyle eg I could absolutely say Western Europe could halve its transport oil consumption if it was required to. If we do that imagine what the US could do...Then imgine what effect that would have on the oil price. the problem is this would probably make it fall! so i am a bid advocate especially in the US of a big increase in the tax on petrol tog et it quickly to $8 a gallon. Currently the US has basically got cheap oil at the expense of the rest of the world, until China and India are strong enough there is not enough economic power to make the US put up these consuption taxes.
Again the bigger issue is do we want the population to rise to 9bn? i dont as it will just cause resources to be consumed quicker.
I also do sense that there is the "we want disaster and doom to happen" brigade here on on other sites. From a psycological point of view this stems from an inherent "puritanical" brain washing over hundreds of years where humans may not enjoy things too much and if you do then you will be "punished". the result is a near subconscious need to indentify the next punishment from god for enjoying ourselves. the result is a warped sense of re-assurance where an impending doom gives a person "re-assurance" that everything is fine and in order as enjoyment will soon be balanced with pain. This process is so engrained in our minds that atheists may not be aware of its origins in fundmentalist christians of the early middle ages. (there are similar themes in most other main religions by the way)
And to an extent this is no bad thing. I myself although i recognise that it is part of the echo of these middle age dont enjoy yourself mentality do value hard work= reward and dont boast or be overtly rich as these are bad things.
A doomers success could arguably be Y2K as the panic that arose probably help minimise the problem.
Where i find it sinister is a hard core group who ,mad though this may seem, "cant wait for PO" or "hope when it comes will teach those nasty consumers a lesson" etc. can you imagine!!
I have to disagree with Bioman on Peak Oil occuring in 2040. PO is for my money 2010 and given timescales it will cause economic/social problems however my sense like Biomans is that once the penny drops there will be a massive change in lifestyle eg I could absolutely say Western Europe could halve its transport oil consumption if it was required to. If we do that imagine what the US could do...Then imgine what effect that would have on the oil price. the problem is this would probably make it fall! so i am a bid advocate especially in the US of a big increase in the tax on petrol tog et it quickly to $8 a gallon. Currently the US has basically got cheap oil at the expense of the rest of the world, until China and India are strong enough there is not enough economic power to make the US put up these consuption taxes.
Again the bigger issue is do we want the population to rise to 9bn? i dont as it will just cause resources to be consumed quicker.
-
Smudger - Peat
- Posts: 180
- Joined: Thu 05 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
- Location: Great Britain
Re: It's here
by Omnitir » Mon 02 Jul 2007, 10:26:56
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bioman', 'N')ah, if we can stretch things to 2050/2070 we're saved. From then onwards, world population declines.
Pfft, you’re dreaming. 2050/2070? What doomer nonsense! We only need to make it to the 2020’s and we’ll be saved.
You make the same mistakes that virtually everyone else makes: progress is not linear, rather it’s accelerating exponentially. The biotech era has well and truly begun. Consider the accelerating rate of genome sequencing; HIV took almost 20 years to sequence, SARS took less than a month.
Yes, the biotech era will revolutionize the world over the next decade, but by 2020 will be old news. By then we will be into the (molecular) nanotech era, where we will fabricate all materials without the massive overheads of today, making large energy consumption unnecessary. By this time, cheap scalable solar power will replace all declines in fossil fuels and meet growth in demand, accelerating towards the 2030’s where it will meet all of our energy needs. But by the 2030’s even the nanotech era will be reaching stagnation as we enter the robotics era, meaning AI. General intelligence will escalate rapidly and before 2050 we approach the era of unprecedented intelligence, which is a big unknown, and as such is generally referred to as The Singularity.
We only need to stretch things for about two decades and we’re saved. Any longer prediction is pure doomer fantasy. But the reality is that surviving two decades is way harder than it sounds.
And yes I’m serious, no I’m not trolling, and yes I give up and will stop trying to open people’s eyes to different perspectives.
"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
-
Omnitir - Tar Sands
- Posts: 894
- Joined: Sat 02 Apr 2005, 04:00:00
- Location: Down Under
, at least you've acknowledged the possibility of your plan taking a rapid ride up sh** creek.