by Carlhole » Sun 10 Jun 2007, 16:16:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'T')his is a bit off topic, but related. I more or less agree with your understanding, Carhole. It brings up another issue, however, and I've heard this argument. "Well, if depletion rates are really that steep and we're on the brink of catastrophe, isn't war on oil producing nations like Iraq or Iran somehow justified, in terms of survival?"
That's why I've been yanging on on other threads about the depletion curve, not likely being so steep and unmanageable and our lives not so precariously poised that we have to invade foreign lands and steal their resources.
I've heard a couple of radio personalities comment that they fully support the idea of peak oil, and support war based on the premise that we "just have to do it, we have no choice".
How do you respond to the potential for this kind of general feeling capturing public mind share?
I think it is an illusion that the United States is an unstoppable military juggernaut. I think that if a full-scale reckless conflagration developed in the Middle East, we would see deliberate destruction and sabotage of oil fields like nothing we've ever seen before. I think we would create pretty much a no-man's land in the oil producing provinces of the world. The mess and the expense in blood and treasure would be unbelievable.
Such an undertaking would also inevitably tie-up and weaken the US leaving ample room for Russia, China or other powers to take full advantage of our difficulties. Do we want to exaust ourselves just to let the vultures feast on our carcass later?
I had always thought that the US planned to reach a point in Iraq where it could pronounce a
fait accompli to the rest of the world and be in a position to negotiate a global energy deal. Can the US do it? I don't know. It doesn't look like it.
So what happens next?
Well, this is what I find so fascinating. I don't know what will happen next. It's a huge drama unfolding before our eyes daily. If the PTB in the US were willing to gamble on something as foolish as the 911 attacks to initiate this desperate reach for power, what are they capable of next? - or has the wind been knocked out of their sails?
Predicting the future is always dangerous, but I would say that if the US outright withdrew troops from Iraq in humiliation, that the dollar would plummet, rampant inflation would commence and the lifestyles of Americans would take a dramatic turn for the worse. The US could lose its standing in the world community. Such a development would change the world order every bit as much as the collapse of the Soviet Union did. It's impossible to forecast much more than that.
So, I can't understand why EVERYONE doesn't tune in to this soap opera. There's so much riding on it.
The Chinese have been urging us consider forming an alliance of oil consuming countries (as opposed to OPEC). It makes me wonder about what possible other alternatives exist in the world than to simply unilaterally charge off on the offensive. If this illusion of US hyper-power did not exist, what other strategies might we pursue to accomplish national security and orderly world peace in the face of looming energy shortages?
This is what Richard Heinberg's emphasis has been on with his Oil Depletion Protocol. And it makes sense. But his Protocol is such a dramatic departure from the way our Military-Industrial Complex has gone about its business for so long now that it is understandable that our backs would really have to be up against the wall before we would adopt so radical a course change.
...It's history being made - worrisome, worrisome, history.