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Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby Tyler_JC » Wed 16 May 2007, 17:16:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('purcatty', 'W')ell, there it is then.
Wellsaid, said well.
It doesn't hurt to try something, expecially if you are a farmer and need some money
but it won't help either.


I think if enough people try to make a difference, it will help.

For example, my town just approved the early stages of a wind power project.

If enough towns did the same, we could still have the capability to maintain at least the electrical grid necessary to maintain the government and essential services, even if the entire electrical grid went down (for whatever reason).

Wouldn't you say that's an improvement over permanent global blackout?

The belief that we are completely and utterly hopeless to improve anything leads to our destruction.

Sure, maybe industrialized society as a whole is doomed. Maybe Wal*Mart, Holiday Inn, American Airlines, and the rest are doomed. But wouldn't you rather build a few windmills in your backyard or throw a few solar panels up on town hall, instead of sitting around whining about how the world is going to end on your home computer?
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby Fredrik » Wed 16 May 2007, 17:26:44

I hate it when I end up sounding like a morbid killjoy pessimist...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')ho cares if it's "impossible"? I am going to try things anyway. We just might make it, and if we don't we'll go down fighting!


I'm not a defeatist either, and I definitely don't regard individual or group survival impossible. FWIW, you and I could very well make it - if we're located wisely, made some preparations and the crash isn't too hard (which it hopefully won't be in 1st world countries, thanks to coal still remaining for decades and lots of less-than-absolutely-necessary "loose fat" in current total energy use). We'll probably just get a lot poorer and become members of a whole new (or old) kind of society.

My real doomerism concerns mostly non-self-sustaining nations and the less affluent city/suburban people in Western countries. For them I don't see much hope.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby Ebyss » Wed 16 May 2007, 18:23:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'F')or example, my town just approved the early stages of a wind power project.


I gather your presentation went well then? Congrats. :)
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby rsch20 » Wed 16 May 2007, 19:12:41

excellent excellent reply.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '
')It is my contention that we are experiencing diminishing returns.


We are experiencing diminishing returns, we may reach some hard limits on technology that prevent us from reaching Omega Point, but we don't know for sure yet either way. so although we are experiencing diminishing returns, and we appear to be near a ceiling. we don't know for sure.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'F')irst, the much-touted Moore's law depends on making chips smaller - the time required to travel between components is a limiting factor. However, quantum uncertainty makes further shrinkage steadily more problematic. Still worse, the cost of a fab line for such chips is increasing to the point that it isn't really cost effective.


The Law of Accelerating Returns is more pertinent than Moore's Law.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_acc ... ng_returns

Moore's Law however, is still valid, long after Moore himself predicted it levelling off.

The point about fabrication is a great one, and is most definetly a hurdle, as technology becomes exponentially more powerful, it also becomes exponentially more costly to fabricate, create factories for, etc. It is yet another example of the 'wall of limits' that humanity faces.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '
')
People tend to tout the benefits of parallel computing; however, there is no magic bullet to transform traditional sequential programs to parallel versions. They require a human programmer to choose which portions are to be sent to parallel processors, and which should be sequential. And, too, the issue of synchronization is limiting.

Pipelining gave some big gains; as I recall, current technology uses a 20 step pipeline along with co-processors. However, the incremental gains from further pipelining are likely to be small.

AI and neural networks are another widely advertised solution. They have their place - but they are not a panacea.

One area that's receiving some attention is in branch prediction at the CPU level. Now, think about that - we're trying to improve the statistical likelihood of correctly predicting which branch of a loop statement will be chosen so we can get another minuscule little improvement in performance.

The quantum computer is all very nice, especially for solving cryptographic problems - and, perhaps, NP complete problems - but it isn't ready for prime time. We really don't know when (or if) it will be.

Yet another area is in solution of simultaneous equations. Take a look at any undergraduate textbook in analysis of algorithms - the methods are something like 30 years old. Newer methods, available in the literature, offer (again) minuscule gains in speed at the cost of significant increases in programming complexity.


Individual mechanisms and processes are less important than the overall trend, and I don't see anything in this section that disputes my thesis


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'S')o - we again seem to be slowing. Perhaps (though this is not definitive) we are approaching some sort of asymptote. But just because we can buy a somewhat faster CPU at a slightly lower cost does not mean we are closer to solving major problems. The issue of factoring large primes - as in brute-force decryption - remains a barrier. Will quantum computers solve this? Maybe. Someday. But it is pure speculation about when, where, and how it will solve anting.


you are sliding here, 'a somewhat faster CPU at a slightly lower cost' is dismissive and derogatory, we both know this is not what I am proposing.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'C')onsider the Turing test. After more than half a century, we can't overcome that hurdle.


we are making leaps and bounds in this area, However I would contend that the Turing Test is not a benchmark we should be focused on.

There are of course many types of Turing Tests, the most literal definition would be if a computer can fool a human into beleiving that the computer is a human in a typed conversation.

Humans themselves fail that test sometimes, which I find highly amusing.

Generally though, an 'actual' Turing Test, is purely pattern recognition (inputting the funky numbers and letters on a website etc).

Pattern Recognition, is a strength of Humans, with brain-computer-interfaces I don't see the need of replicating that capability in machines when a human-machine merge will accomplish the same thing. the traditional strengths of machine intelligence (memory, math, information sharing, etc), complement the strengths of human intelligence (intuition/guessing, pattern recognition, etc).


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'Y')es, I'm fond of computers. But - even though they are marvelous tools - they are not any sort of panacea. And though Mr. Kurzweil paints an amusing picture, I remain skeptical. If you haven't looked at his site, please do so. According to him, we'll soon live forever in a world of limitless abundance.

http://www.kurzweilai.net/

It should be obvious that I am intimately familiar with Kurweil's idea's, The Law of Accelerating Returns is his creation.

Skepticism is good, I try to avoid predicting the outcome of accelerating technology as much as possible precisely because it evokes that type of skepticism, when you consider this stuff it can easly send you off into wild tangents. That does not invalidate the strength of the basic theory though, any more than wild doomerists invalidate PO.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby rsch20 » Wed 16 May 2007, 19:16:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I_Like_Plants', 'A')ctually Albert Einstein got the Nobel for the photoelectric effect around 1903.


I don't know about a Nobel, but I do know he wrote a paper on the photoelectric effect. It, however, was penned in 1904.

He neither discovered the effect, nor invented the solar cell. Here is a timeline of solar cell development:

Timeline of Solar Cells

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rsch20', 't')his is semantics, a new application of an 'old discovery' IS a 'new discovery'.

The "semantics" lies in calling refinement or novel application of existing technology "new discovery". It isn't.


yes as I said, semantics, I'm perfectly happy saying there are more refinements and novel applications in one year today, than between the years 0 and 1500 AD.

I don't care which one of us was misunderstood, if you take issue with my use of the word 'discovery', I happily submit to your (imo overly-rigorous) definition. there are nearly zero 'discoveries' today, but there are many many new refinements and novel applications, mkay?
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby Revi » Wed 16 May 2007, 21:10:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fredrik', 'I') hate it when I end up sounding like a morbid killjoy pessimist...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'W')ho cares if it's "impossible"? I am going to try things anyway. We just might make it, and if we don't we'll go down fighting!


I'm not a defeatist either, and I definitely don't regard individual or group survival impossible. FWIW, you and I could very well make it - if we're located wisely, made some preparations and the crash isn't too hard (which it hopefully won't be in 1st world countries, thanks to coal still remaining for decades and lots of less-than-absolutely-necessary "loose fat" in current total energy use). We'll probably just get a lot poorer and become members of a whole new (or old) kind of society.

My real doomerism concerns mostly non-self-sustaining nations and the less affluent city/suburban people in Western countries. For them I don't see much hope.


I can be a doomer as well, but I don't let it overwhelm me as much any more. One thing about the situation is that if you have nothing, you have nothing to lose and everything to gain if things roll your way. Who knows what will happen? Every day is a crapshoot anyway. I figure that we are living better in our household because of the things we've done to cut our fossil fuel use, so even if we don't live through the "die off" we lived a life that was somewhat sustainable and maybe influenced some younger people that may make it through. I am a teacher, so I talk about this stuff a lot to my students. I try to make it fun. We even made up a song, Treehugger Deluxe.

Here's the solar car we worked on with my friend Art who is an engineer. Check out the youtube movie:

www.sunnev.com
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby Tyler_JC » Wed 16 May 2007, 21:16:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'F')or example, my town just approved the early stages of a wind power project.


I gather your presentation went well then? Congrats. :)


Thanks.

The Wind Power bill was one of the last things addressed at town meeting, it was late at night, and people wanted to go home as soon as possible.

Apparently you can get whatever crazy bill you want passed in my town if you throw it at the end of the list.

Heck, we appropriated $30,000 to remove the weeds from a small pond that happens to be located next to a couple people's houses.

About 30 people will directly benefit from this and they showed up to the meeting, prepared to battle for this funding. No one wanted to listen to them whine about the pond for an hour so we just voted them the money to finish up the meeting.

Gotta love democracy in action. Haha.
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Postby Pops » Wed 16 May 2007, 22:52:58

Yes congratulations JC. Heck even the rural co-ops in MO now have one wind farm going and two more on the boards – screen – whatever.

As to pessimism:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', 'P')rrmph. When I first joined this group people were talking about a peak in 2009/10. Now it turns out it (probably) happened in 2005.


Yea, that’s about right. I was thinking that the things we are doing in our own lives might benefit our kids or maybe grandkids – nothing new, I have been wrong before.

I'm not gonna go into the why prep thing – I couldn’t care less what anyone does.

I’ll take that back I do harp on folks to do something in the hope I may spur a few into some action aside from tapping the keys between hand-wrings. But hey if they aren't will to try then really I have no more pity for them than someone who won't try to get a job.

As far as what to prepare for, it seems to me that has been covered in most every thread on the site. No one knows another’s situation, abilities, assets, liabilities, etc. But most everyone here should be able to read the wall and make an assessment and come up with some plan based on theirs particulars.

And for the record, I think updating ones assessment of the situation and changing their plan accordingly is far more important than running out and buying some gadget or a centuries worth of peanut butter.

I don't give a rat fart whether your plan looks like mine or relies on offering crack to the Energy Fairy. But if you spend any time here and come to the conclusion that times are changing and still think you are gonna get a pass from your offspring because you decided to do nothing since you weren't 100% sure what to do,
or were afraid someone or some entity was gonna take what you had done,
or that the market would provide,
or that someone else would fix it…

well, I think you are sadly mistaken.

Probably better to tell them you were skating around with your stick in the air.

‘course I have been wrong before.
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Postby PenultimateManStanding » Wed 16 May 2007, 23:10:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', ' ')
Probably better to tell them you were skating around with your stick in the air.

‘course I have been wrong before.
Hi Pops, I see you still have your usual humility. I don't think we're there yet. The news looks like we might have some gas shortages this summer, but maybe not. Hard to tell. But I'm guessing another year before it gets bad. Maybe two. People now are focused on the gasoline, but that isn't the real issue. The issue is the oil.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby Pops » Wed 16 May 2007, 23:28:08

Hi PMS,

I agree we are looking mostly at the above ground things here in the US now and maybe the inability of the poor folks worldwide to keep buying (and who cares about them anyway) but I wonder what will be the spur to get folks to realize they actually have a responsibility for their future beyond chips and beer for this weeks televised game?

Especially on this board?

Perhaps as usual I am taking the hardest route and others have things figured better…
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Postby Zardoz » Thu 17 May 2007, 02:24:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '.')..But I'm guessing another year before it gets bad. Maybe two. People now are focused on the gasoline, but that isn't the real issue. The issue is the oil.

That's right. When the refineries begin to experience shortages of crude feedstock, the real fun will begin. This refinery bottleneck problem is nothing compared to what will happen then.

But, like you said, we won't have to wait long. It'll be on us soon enough...
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby hubbertspeak7777777 » Thu 17 May 2007, 02:30:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'A')m I the only one who has noticed the sudden surge of pessimistic attitudes on this site?

The Planning Forum (and the rest of the forums for that matter) are full of doomers calling for the end of the world and there are so few soft-landers to combat them.

The Current Events forum is full of negative news stories. It's always full of negative news, but somehow the news right now is focusing on stuff that feels more probable.

Is site traffic down among soft-landers?

I don't think the number of doomers has increased, I just think that the number of optimists who are willing to fight the doomers has decreased.

Just my late night rambling...:)


I'll tell you why, because pessimism is fun! Who wants to be a "Spongebob Squarepants, happy to be a corporate slave" type? That's no fun. Bitching and griping is fun. Being mean spirited, cynical and jaded is far more entertaining than being an naive, irrational, delusional optomist. Think about it... all the best comedians are pessimistic like George Carlin and Bill Hicks. Meanwhile, optomists are listening to Larry the Cable Guy and Dane Cook.

Besides, by being a pessimist, you get to be an asshole and not feel bad about it... what's better than that? It doesn't matter how happy you are or how many good deeds you do, at the end of the week, the world is still a shit-hole, people still suck, and God (if you believe in "it") still hates you, so you might as well be an asshole for the fun of it.

Just give up on humanity... it's very liberating.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby Ebyss » Thu 17 May 2007, 08:53:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')Heck, we appropriated $30,000 to remove the weeds from a small pond that happens to be located next to a couple people's houses.


8O I'll do it for $15,000.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')otta love democracy in action. Haha.


Yup - as Voltaire said, "democracy propagates the idiocy of the masses".
We've tried nothin' and we're all out of ideas.

I am only one. I can only do what one can do. But what one can do, I will do. -- John Seymour.
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Postby JPL » Thu 17 May 2007, 19:30:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')
As to pessimism:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', 'P')rrmph. When I first joined this group people were talking about a peak in 2009/10. Now it turns out it (probably) happened in 2005.


Yea, that’s about right. I was thinking that the things we are doing in our own lives might benefit our kids or maybe grandkids – nothing new, I have been wrong before.

I'm not gonna go into the why prep thing – I couldn’t care less what anyone does.

I’ll take that back I do harp on folks to do something in the hope I may spur a few into some action aside from tapping the keys between hand-wrings. But hey if they aren't will to try then really I have no more pity for them than someone who won't try to get a job.


Hi Pops

I don't think 'preppers' are exactly in the majority here any more...

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Postby Pops » Thu 17 May 2007, 20:21:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', '
')Hi Pops

I don't think 'preppers' are exactly in the majority here any more...

JPL


Yea you are right JP, I was about to go search for PMS after taking a break and realized that after a couple years of railing about how the stuff in the Open forum shouldn’t be seen by passers-by, TPTB actually hid it while I was missing!

As far as Plan and Prep goes, I guess we are into the phase of Bike-To-Work-Week.

It’s A Start…

As our friends in the industry say…
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby Tyler_JC » Thu 17 May 2007, 23:03:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')Heck, we appropriated $30,000 to remove the weeds from a small pond that happens to be located next to a couple people's houses.


8O I'll do it for $15,000.


It's actually even dumber than it sounds.

The pond was created by damming off a stream.

Now we have a pond sitting on a field that is being overwhelmed with pond weeds.

We pay money every 5 years or so to put poison in the pond to kill the weeds. Then the weeds sink to the bottom and provide a wonderful mucky sediment that, as it turns out, is exactly the kind of material that these weeds love growing in.

We don't remove the weeds, we poison them temporarily so that they can grow back, bigger and better than before. :)

But when half the Board of Selectmen live in nice homes facing the pond...:roll:
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Re: Why the sudden and massive uptick in pessimism?

Postby max_power29 » Fri 18 May 2007, 03:18:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')Heck, we appropriated $30,000 to remove the weeds from a small pond that happens to be located next to a couple people's houses.


8O I'll do it for $15,000.


It's actually even dumber than it sounds.

The pond was created by damming off a stream.

Now we have a pond sitting on a field that is being overwhelmed with pond weeds.

We pay money every 5 years or so to put poison in the pond to kill the weeds. Then the weeds sink to the bottom and provide a wonderful mucky sediment that, as it turns out, is exactly the kind of material that these weeds love growing in.

We don't remove the weeds, we poison them temporarily so that they can grow back, bigger and better than before. :)

But when half the Board of Selectmen live in nice homes facing the pond...:roll:


I hate taxes. Confiscating peoples' hard earned money is criminal. There's no excuse for this kind of shit! If you want windmills build them your-goddamned-self on your own dime! If people have to be forced into it, maybe its not such a good business idea. Do you know how much oil it takes to build, maintain, and install "renewable energy"?
Its all a crock of crap.

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Postby max_power29 » Fri 18 May 2007, 03:22:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '.')..But I'm guessing another year before it gets bad. Maybe two. People now are focused on the gasoline, but that isn't the real issue. The issue is the oil.

That's right. When the refineries begin to experience shortages of crude feedstock, the real fun will begin. This refinery bottleneck problem is nothing compared to what will happen then.

But, like you said, we won't have to wait long. It'll be on us soon enough...


I say these refinery bottlenecks are ultimately feedstock problems. The heavy sour is shit and is ruining the refineries. They will not build more refineries because they know there is not near enough [s]future[/s] feedstock to make it worth it.

But yes when even the heavy stuff is running low the "real fun" will begin
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