[roccman]

Well a true debunker confident in their assertions would post to TOD.

All other sites pale in comparison.

[evilgenius]

I went all in and backed the notion of the peak having been reached last year. I'm not a petroleum engineer, so I had to look at what was in the news. It was the difference in behavior by the Saudis then as opposed to all other gas crunch situations that more than anything lead me to back the notion of peak in SA. SA has for a long time been the closest of allies with the US and had always pumped whatever it took to relieve high gas prices. They couldn't at times last year. They couldn't even do it on paper so as to move markets with empty news.

Now the only extra they seem to have on offer is heavy sour crude.

To be fair this could be something else other than SA having reached peak. They could be ingratiating themselves with the Chinese. They could ever so slowly be attempting to break away from the yoke of the US. They might not believe that the US has what it takes to lead the world into the 21st century.

[Newsseeker]

Thanks for the feedback. I still don't quite understand what Stuart is saying but all I need to know is that TSHTF I guess. Thanks guys!

[rider]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', 'I')t might turn out that USGS and CERA are closer to reality than you all.

[jupiters_release]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', '[')url=http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2470]Stuart's Analysis[/url]

[Cyrus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', ' ')Stuart's Analysis

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', 'I') am not buying in to the consensus that the peak has already hit. Some evidence is mounting. However, put it in a historical context - a case could have easily been made (and was) in 1982 that we were past peak.

[khebab]

Stuart's post (via Econbrowser) has almost made it into Digg front page: link We need some more diigs, some help would be welcomed.

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ere I have only skimmed the surface of Stuart's painstakingly detailed analysis. But let me briefly comment on what it means and why he did it. Neither Stuart nor I have a particular agenda here. The Saudis have been deliberately concealing the data that could settle this speculation quite conclusively. And yet, accurate information about what is ahead is absolutely vital in order to help us all make the adjustments and adaptations necessary for what is to come. Stuart observed that nobody had a compelling fix on the facts, even though the story may prove to be one of the most important events of our lifetime. For that reason, he decided that it was worthwhile for someone with his abilities to wade through all the detailed information available to try to form the most accurate picture of where things currently stand.
After Stuart's monumental research, I really think the burden of proof is on those who claim that Saudi Arabian production can continue to increase. At this point, we need not the conclusions of experts nor the reassurances from Aramco, but hard data to support the claims. If Saudi production is permanently on the way down, we have just entered a new phase of history.

[Newsseeker]

I like it when people can put Stuart's writings into English.

[EndOfGrowth]

I get a sinking feeling that the decline rates in Ghawar will be spectacular because the Saudi's have been using the most powerful resevoir simulation software and adavanced drilling techniques on the planet to enhance recovery and maximise flow rates.

[Twilight]

Mainstream opinion has it that Saudi Arabian oil is produced inefficiently by a technologically backward conservative state monopoly. We fucking wish.

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ailrickson73', 'A')ny update on Ghawar anyone?

[Armageddon]

Interesting theory from the original poster. It could be true, but unfortunately just like 911, we will never know the truth. The neo-cons are definitely not sitting on their hands.

[evilgenius]

I have been saying for a long time that Iraq was about Saudi depletion. While I don't believe that they have been using Iraqi oil, at least not much of it, I do see the war as a way for the Saudis to incorporate the Iraqi infrastructure into their own. I think the troops are about to leave. It will be a disingenuous withdrawal. TPTB fully intend to re-enter Iraq, this time in aid of a Sunni military coup that they will say is now the obvious horse to back (a horse that is allied with the kingdom of Saudi Arabia). If the Kurds act up the Turks are ready to deal with them in a way that won't invite the Russians in.

I believe, further, that all of Iran's posturing has been an attempt to so belabor the point that it can't help but reveal the Saudi reserve inadequacies. The Saudis have adopted a scheme of justifying reduced export (and quite possibly covering with Iraqi oil for short term boosts) in response. The world is buying the Saudi story even in the face of near record oil prices. If it weren't for the quacks that tout oil industry price rigging the truth might have been known by now. Oh, and by the way, I think when the West re-enters they will lose.

[DantesPeak]

While this is nothing really new to regular readers here, an in-depth industry report on Saudi Arabia has reached the conclusion that the super-giant Ghawar oil field is past peak. Plus they seem to concur with the assessment that other Saudi major fields are also declining by 8% per year.

APS Review Gas Market Trends, however, also says that Saudi Arabia still has some untapped and by-passed oil fields, mostly those with heavy oil. The heavy oil fields are also generally located near large deposits of rare earth heavy metals, which could contaminate oil. In addition to the light oil field with a potential output of 500,000 bpd to be brought on line near or about the end of this year, they may also have one more significant light oil field that can be developed.

In sum, APS appears to believe that the Saudis still have some potential to increase production – although they don’t make a specific production forecast and they have not reconciled the growing gap between actual production and potential production as stated by the Saudis.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')PS Review Oil Market Trends 24 Sep 2007 Vol 69; Issue 13
SAUDI ARABIA - The Oil/Gas Reserves & The Regional Prospects - Emphasis On Heavy Oil.
Saudi Arabia has about 80 oil and gas fields and more than 1,000 oil wells; however, more than 50% of the kingdom's reserves are in only eight sets of fields. On Dec. 27, 2004, Saudi Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Na'imi said the country's proven reserves can go up to 461 bn barrels in the next few years. He reiterated this point on April 8, 2005. Naimi, a prominent geologist, was quoted as saying: "There is a possibility that the kingdom will raise its reserves by around 200 bn barrels, either through new finds or by increasing what it produces from existing fields. ...These reserves enable the kingdom to remain a major oil producer for between 70 and 100 years, even if it raises its production capacity to 15m b/d, which may well happen during the next 15 years".

What Na'imi and other Saudi officials have said about potential oil reserves, however, are yet to be verified independently. It has been rumoured for years that Ghawar is in permanent decline. Some foreign experts claim Ghawar can only produce 4.5-5m b/d. Its officially stated maximum sustained capacity is 8.5m b/d, though actual output is a closely-guarded state secret.

Early in 2006, a Saudi Aramco spokesman admitted Ghawar's mature fields were declining at a rate of 8% per year. In other words, Ghawar's production was most likely past its peak. The spokesman went on to say that steps were being taken to offset the decline, but that the only true solution was locate new fields in that area.

Upstream oil projects include development of new fields, new installations such as major gas-oil separation plants (GOSPs), and EOR systems for parts of the Ghawar axis of fields which have begun to decline due to a fall in reservoir pressure. Production streams to be expanded are those for the lighter oils. More of the fields producing heavy oil have been mothballed.