[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', 'P')rrmph. When I first joined this group people were talking about a peak in 2009/10. Now it turns out it (probably) happened in 2005.

JPL

[davep]

I think there may be less difference between the preppers and the doomers than people imagine.

The main difference may be that the preppers have the wherewithal to do something about it. Therefore, influenced by their improving personal situation, (light at the end of the tunnel) they are less scared.

The doomers won't or can't run for the hills. This may be for a perceived lack of cash (but there are many ways to start farming without buying the land), a spouse who is hostile to the idea, too much debt, a rabbit in the headlights fear, or any other reason. Therefore their personal experience is one of frustration and impotence in the face of the coming disasters.

Both may start from the same point, and both may indeed agree on how the scenario will unfold generally. However, one is empowered and the other is verging on the apathetic on a personal level due to perceived impotence.

[max_power29]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('purcatty', 'T')he bast laid plans of mice and men will always go awry.

If baboons were given 38 magnums and taught how to use them, how long would it be before there were no more baboons in the jungle?

[rsch20]

I'm a chronic lurker, extremely rare for me to post but I have a couple points.

on the prep thing, I read most of that forum, and did my minimum of preparation. It's focus is on individual preparation, after you've read all the content there, contributed yourself, and done your prep... well theres not much reason to continue visiting that forum.

I view it more as an information repository than a discussion area.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The Dude', ''')Bout the only optimist still hanging around seems to be Omnitir who just says that the march of technology will bail us out. Even he thinks tech may just as well sink us in the end.

[rsch20]

Additionally, information on this site has contributed to humanities store of knowledge. so uh yea at least a few hands should be raising around here.

[Fredrik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rsch20', 'T')here are more discoveries being made per year now than there were between the years 0 and 1500 AD.

And not just 'new drinks', but things like MRI, brain-interface devices (heard about the disabled guy that can operate a computer and robotic arm with his brain implant? or the companies in france developing word processing software that reads your thoughts and already works at 15 wpm? I could go on and on.

what about wikipedia? something like 20,000 times the amount of information contained in the encyclopedia brittanica, in the english section alone.

addressing specifically the 'few hands would be raised' comment, scientists now work in communities, and there are far more of them than ever before in history, where traditionally it was the rare genius that came up with an advancement, that is no longer the case.

[Graeme]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fredrik', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rsch20', 'T')here are more discoveries being made per year now than there were between the years 0 and 1500 AD.

And not just 'new drinks', but things like MRI, brain-interface devices (heard about the disabled guy that can operate a computer and robotic arm with his brain implant? or the companies in france developing word processing software that reads your thoughts and already works at 15 wpm? I could go on and on.

what about wikipedia? something like 20,000 times the amount of information contained in the encyclopedia brittanica, in the english section alone.

addressing specifically the 'few hands would be raised' comment, scientists now work in communities, and there are far more of them than ever before in history, where traditionally it was the rare genius that came up with an advancement, that is no longer the case.

[Fredrik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'T')hat's debatable:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Energy [R]evolution Scenario describes a development pathway
which transforms the present situation into a sustainable energy supply.
• Exploitation of the large energy efficiency potential will reduce
primary energy demand from the current 435,000 PJ/a (Peta Joules
per year) to 422,000 PJ/a by 2050. Under the reference scenario
there would be an increase to 810,000 PJ/a.This dramatic reduction
is a crucial prerequisite for achieving a significant share of renewable
energy sources, compensating for the phasing out of nuclear energy
and reducing the consumption of fossil fuels.
• The increased use of combined heat and power generation (CHP) also
improves the supply system’s energy conversion efficiency, increasingly
using natural gas and biomass. In the long term, decreasing demand for
heat and the large potential for producing heat directly from renewable
energy sources limits the further expansion of CHP.
• The electricity sector will be the pioneer of renewable energy utilisation. By
2050, around 70% of electricity will be produced from renewable energy
sources, including large hydro. An installed capacity of 7,100 GW will
produce 21,400 Terawatt hours per year (TWh/a) of electricity in 2050.
• In the heat supply sector, the contribution of renewables will increase to
65% by 2050. Fossil fuels will be increasingly replaced by more efficient
modern technologies, in particular biomass, solar collectors and geothermal.
• Before biofuels can play a substantial role in the transport sector, the
existing large efficiency potentials have to be exploited. In this study, biomass
is primarily committed to stationary applications; the use of biofuels for
transport is limited by the availability of sustainably grown biomass.
• By 2050, half of primary energy demand will be covered by
renewable energy sources.

[Graeme]

Fredrik, What Greenpeace International and the European Renewable Energy Council have done is to provide a pathway for, and hence demonstrate that, such an energy transition is feasible. Its really up to individual governments to implement a blueprint such as this one. In other words, they need to listen to technical experts and change their energy policies asap. That's the hard part!

[Fredrik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'F')redrik, What Greenpeace International and the European Renewable Energy Council have done is to provide a pathway for, and hence demonstrate that, such an energy transition is feasible. Its really up to individual governments to implement a blueprint such as this one. In other words, they need to listen to technical experts and change their energy policies asap. That's the hard part!

[Revi]

Who cares if it's "impossible"? I am going to try things anyway. We just might make it, and if we don't we'll go down fighting!

[Ayame]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fredrik', '
')But it looks like The Energy [R]evolution Scenario is based on the assumption that the overall energy supply is not going to take substantial hits in the decades to come, allowing for a planned, gradual transition. If PO theorists are have their estimates about right (and there seems to be a lot of indirect evidence they have), the chances to execute such a transition will be next to nil. When the irreversible decline becomes evident and the economy reacts accordingly, I expect well-meaning but unfounded scenarios such as the one quoted above to be soon forgotten. A transition of such a massive scale simply can't be powered by a dwindling energy base, which will have to be used to cover people's most basic needs.

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rsch20', 'T')here are more discoveries being made per year now than there were between the years 0 and 1500 AD.

And not just 'new drinks', but things like MRI, brain-interface devices (heard about the disabled guy that can operate a computer and robotic arm with his brain implant? or the companies in france developing word processing software that reads your thoughts and already works at 15 wpm? I could go on and on.

[Jack]

Close, TWilliam - there was a piece I read a year ago, and which, for the life of me, I cannot find again, that looked at the volume of actual new discoveries, as opposed to development of existing ideas, and determined that we were slowing down quite a lot - in fact, a graphical representation looked as if we were asymptotically approaching some sort of limit.

But the rest of your statement is precisely, exactly correct. The computer we use now is merely a refinement of the discovery of the transistor, circa 1950.

The problem with our energy problem is we need some real breakthroughs - and, having achieved those, we must transform the science to technology with a net energy gain. Then, we have to scale it all up in a relatively short amount of time.

Finally, my comment about coming up with "new knowledge" was absolutely, dead serious. I stand by my statement that very few people will come up with a single piece of truly new knowledge, no matter how small, throughout their lives.

[AirlinePilot]

We need to be able to harness gravity for transport, find an efficient and SAFE way to beam solar power from space, and we need reliable and huge fusion processes to provide electric power. For the electric power grid we have to find a way to do it wirelessly.

We need it now, and we need it cheap.

Good luck!

[I_Like_Plants]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '
')You are mistaken. These are not "new discoveries", these are applications and refinements of old discoveries. Are you aware that the photoelectric effect was discovered in 1839, that the first solar cell was created in 1883? This is what (I think) Jack is talking about: for technology to make a meaningful difference in addressing the impending PO future, we need genuinely new knowledge, not just further refinement and iteration of old ideas. So far such "new knowledge" has not been forthcoming.

[rsch20]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rsch20', 'T')here are more discoveries being made per year now than there were between the years 0 and 1500 AD.

And not just 'new drinks', but things like MRI, brain-interface devices (heard about the disabled guy that can operate a computer and robotic arm with his brain implant? or the companies in france developing word processing software that reads your thoughts and already works at 15 wpm? I could go on and on.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rsch20', 'H')OWEVER, computer science is still going strong, and THAT is the only field that matters. Is it your contention that computers will not become more sophisticated and we have reached the apex in this field? I read an article recently that we are now able to represent bits on the quantum level.

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I_Like_Plants', 'A')ctually Albert Einstein got the Nobel for the photoelectric effect around 1903.