[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', 'T')o define what SHTF will be like is very difficult because quite simply not all the variables are there. One thing, which we see now, is a slow grind. Prices slowly creep up over time. Interest rates slowly rise over time. No one realizes how dangerous the path is because the changes dont happen right NOW. People just complain and make minor life changes.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I_Like_Plants', 'T')wilight you Brits had trouble then, and during/after WWII too, I think there was real rationing and real hunger, of course during, but also after WWII up into the early 1960s right? At least the old council houses etc were set up to have gardens.... we don't even have that in the US....

Yeah, we're so screwed....

[greenworm]

Two foreclosures in walking distance in my neighborhood and I live in the sticks. I'd say it just hit, first wave anyway. One guy had a big SUV. The others were actually renting out the other half, however, they bought at the peak and probably had a hell of a house payment.

Yet the dow crossed 13000. America's economy is always sad to watch as many lose so a few can win. Pathetic really.

[Ludi]

I think we can expect exurban foreclosures to rise quickly as gas prices do; these properties are grossly overvalued and won't sell at the price paid by the current owners.

[vision-master]

The brother lives in Northern Minnesota - lakes area. TS has already HTF up there. The economy has dried up. A huge change from just two years ago. This last year he has lived on about $250 Month from odd-jobs. Imagine if your net worth (cash in pocket) was about $50 & not knowing when or if you are going to get another day labor job. I wish he would get the hell out of there.

I think the deer population will start to decline.........

[ironborne]

As everyone else has already said, We are already there. All that remains is to draw the line in the sand.
I was in Germany before The Wall came down and we were convinced that the USSR or one of the Eastern Bloc States would be coming over the border. They didn't. Now almost 20 years later Russia is a threat again.
Specop, PM, etc. you are all correct! If you read the Preparedness Threads you know who is thinking, who is ready, and who is chum.
Yes there are too many variables and everyones Doom scenario is specific but having said that there WILL BE NO SINGLE SCENARIO THAT UNITES US.
Find a friend or twenty.

[End Drunken Rant]

[MattSavinar]

Obviously I hope he is wrong, but it gels with my own sense of things: link I will probably be at my contingency location full-time inside of this year if the cookie crumbles correctly, even if this anaylsis is totally incorrect. If it is correct, this leaves without the extra 5-to-10 years or so years I need to even come close to getting a piece of land and getting it off the grid.

[Colorado-Valley]

Even worse if you use May 2005 as the peak.

Have you ever heard of ELP?

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'E')ven worse if you use May 2005 as the peak. Have you ever heard of ELP?

[Pretorian]

Before anything happens in USA/EU, you will see tshtf on many overpopulated independent islands who cant feed themselves & live off tourism/IMF. Just look closely at Fiji, Mauritius, Jamaica, Barbados and such. they will be first in the row. So chill out.

[mididoctors]

if you keep being the cassandra one day you may be right. I sought of don't like these extrapolations; its a cherry pick of geopolitical events cross referenced to technical figures.. I think the whole unfolding of this mess may be more convoluted.

otoh... I think US forecourt prices have a geo-psychological effect, a more obvious correlation is post rate here and forecourt prices... one for aaron me thinks
Boris
London

[eXpat]

I was thinking recently along the same lines and doing some search about that too. I'm expecting for some serious economic crash to open the new era soon, most economists are betting for later 2007 and 2008, examples:
-George Soros has predicted that the US will slip into recession in 2007, link
-Carlyle Group Memo says the market will be still good till sometime in 2008 (read after that, crash) Link
-Corporations have started moving way from US, link
-For the UK, housing bubble to burst in 2008: link.
I personally think (sometimes hope) that 2008 will be the last normal year for all of us.
I see the long emergency starting with an economic crash, the day that, say, Wall street has heavy looses for a week, or that, with grand fanfare one or two Central banks around the world, announce that they are ditching the dollar, the rush to get the money out of the banks will start, governments will call for a day or two of bank holiday, to calm down the population, that of course will acomplish exactly the opposite effect, as soon as they can, they will rush to get their money from the banks, big supermarkets, will find suddelty that thanks to the policy of low stock, coupled with disruptions in the transport (if they are still in business) will have the shelves empty, people around the world will start rioting believing that theirs current administrations are somehow the ones to blame for the problems (since of course everything was normal before) and so on. The party is truly over now, is time to pack and go home.

[KingM]

Wasn't 2007 the year of the crash according to the biggest doomers on the site? Actually, wasn't it 2006, and before that, 2005?

[eXpat]

Let's see some facts:
Fact1: We are past PO.
Fact2: The US housing bubble is busting.
Fact3: The US National debt is still growing.
Fact4: Countries all over the world have starting moving away from the greenback.
Fact5: Worldwide demand for energy is still growing.
Fact6: Renevables and alternatives energy sources are not making up for the extra energy needed.
Fact7: In the US and the UK, every day the level of personal debt and the level of bankruptcies keeps growing.
Something has to give up, 12 months seems reasonable to me.

[Fredrik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', 'F')act1: We are past PO.
Fact2: The US housing bubble is busting.
Fact3: The US National debt is still growing.
Fact4: Countries all over the world have starting moving away from the greenback.
Fact5: Worldwide demand for energy is still growing.
Fact6: Renevables and alternatives energy sources are not making up for the extra energy needed.
Fact7: In the US and the UK, every day the level of personal debt and the level of bankruptcies keeps growing.

[Jack]

Interesting theory, and I can see a fundamental reason why it would be true.

When a country hits peak, it goes from being an exporter to becoming an importer. The country's flow of cash is diverted to an outside source instead of domestic consumption. We'll see an example of this in Mexico in a few years - and I suppose it will behave exactly like the other countries on the list. That isn't good for the U.S., of course.

The extrapolation to global effects is more problematic. The countries of the world won't be sending cash outside the system. The magnitude of cash export (to buy more oil) will increase in some cases - say, the U.S. and Western Europe - but may decrease elsewhere due to demand destruction. So global peak is qualitatively different than previous national peaks. The outcomes may be different.

I guess it all depends on what is meant by "TSHTF". I expect more crime, more unemployment, market volatility, economic problems of every sort. I do not expect Mad Max for several years. I don't see anything in the theory that makes me modify those views.

[billp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'm')ore crime, more unemployment, market volatility, economic problems of every sort

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'O')bviously I hope he is wrong, but it gels with my own sense of things: link

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'B')efore anything happens in USA/EU, you will see tshtf on many overpopulated independent islands who cant feed themselves & live off tourism/IMF. Just look closely at Fiji, Mauritius, Jamaica, Barbados and such. they will be first in the row. So chill out.

[roccman]

I agree with Matt and other posters here primarily based on analysis and editorials by Perry Arnett, Stuart S, FF, Darwinian, Tort at TOD and Myndless over at LATOC. They all put a bone crushing thud within 2 years if I interpret thier analysis correctly...and for Stuart - that's a haul. Then T. Boones says on CNBC a month ago - world will never produce more than 85 million a day.

Housing subprimes with toes up = 64 as of yesterday on urban survival economics. INdy Mac a sure short for those in teh market. It would take a complete moron to think a bone crushing thud will not happen within 2 years if one has been paying attention. I actually give it 6 months...