[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don’t need a crystal ball to tell me exactly who will hit my vehicle from what direction and on what date to know that insurance is a good investment – even if I am never in an accident.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '.')..do something!

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'H')ow are we supposed to know what to pack?

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'A')ll I see is a fogbank that we're going to hurtle into at high speed. In that fog could be anything we might imagine.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'A')ll I see is a fogbank that we're going to hurtle into at high speed. In that fog could be anything we might imagine.

[peaker_2005]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'A')ll I see is a fogbank that we're going to hurtle into at high speed. In that fog could be anything we might imagine.

[JBinKC]

I believe the peak in the standard of living in the US coincided with the era of peak US oil production and when we totally got off the gold standard in the states (the late 60s early 70s timeframe) and we have been slowly sliding ever since with a reprieve on the upside with the internet boom era in the mid 90s-2000. I wish I can pin a date on when the big slide will occur but we are dealing with too many unknowns.

Financially speaking of what is definitely known I think we are in for a tough period starting for financial assets in 2008 as that year there will be more incentive to sell long term appreciated assets beginning of the reduced capital gains rate but I feel that the big precipitous slide will begin when peak oil production is confirmed and when medicare is confirmed to be bankrupt which is putting me at a 2012- 2016 range.

This excludes the likelihood of another World War which will probably be held on true global scale.

I like to be an optimist but when you look at the facts I see very few positives in a world jam packed with negative factors.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'A')ll I see is a fogbank that we're going to hurtle into at high speed. In that fog could be anything we might imagine.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ''')ve posted this analogy before, but I'll repeat it here: It's as if we know we're going on a trip, ...

[Narz]

I know what the acroynm means, I was just thinking of started a poll about when you fellows (and fellets... wait that doesn't sound right ) think things are going to start to get really rough (and hopefully generate some intereting debate and discussion) but first I have to define "rough".

How would you define it?

[Aimrehtopyh]

A)Hyperinflation and/or extreme unemployment
B)Gallon of Gasoline costs more than your hourly wage.
C)The power has been out for more than 48 hours and you wake up to the sound of gunfire.

Two out of those three happening at the same time=TSHTF.

So yeah, large parts of Africa and pockets of southcentralAmerica are already smeared.

[Narz]

Sounds about right.

[perdition79]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aimrehtopyh', 'A'))Hyperinflation and/or extreme unemployment
B)Gallon of Gasoline costs more than your hourly wage.
C)The power has been out for more than 48 hours and you wake up to the sound of gunfire.

[Loki]

Cuban paratroopers drop on high schools in Colorado. I'm forced to take to the hills with my merry band of rebels. Hatred keeps me warm.

Seriously, though, SHTF can mean any number of things:
(1) You lose your job and have to cut expenses to the bone
(2) Serious health issues that wipe you out financially
(3) Someone breaks into your home and you're forced to defend yourself
(4) An earthquake hits your city and essential services and law enforcement are temporarily gone
(5) Economic meltdown---hyperinflation, Greater Depression
(6) Legal troubles---you're forced to go underground and search for the one-armed man who killed your wife
(7) Foreign invasion or domestic revolution/civil war
(8 ) Global thermonuclear warfare
(9) Asteroid or comet hits the planet

I'd say these are roughly listed in order of likelihood---#1 has already happened for me, though it's not a major emergency (yet). Of course, if you are unlucky enough to live in Somalia or Iraq, the shit has already hit the fan.

[evilgenius]

I guess when it simply isn't possible to problem solve without resorting to immorality. Yeah, most people figure that if they have to problem solve immorality is okay. I save that for when TSHTF.

[JustinFrankl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'I') guess when it simply isn't possible to problem solve without resorting to immorality. Yeah, most people figure that if they have to problem solve immorality is okay. I save that for when TSHTF.

[AirlinePilot]

1. When it becomes common knowledge that oil production will forever decline year after year. (not weather related, or OPEC controlled)

2. When terrorists start aggressively targeting oil and NG infrastructure regularly and successfully.

3. Global recession followed by depression caused by the rapid increase in energy prices.

4. When the means for producing and delivering food to the local grocery begin to fail on a regular basis.

5. Gasoline prices high enough to cause traffic reductions.

6. Conflict directy related to securing oil or NG. Not labled as anti terrorist or "liberating" operations.

7. Having to post a watch at night to make sure no one breaks into my home.

8. Thinking I need more ammo than I have.

Any of these coupled with several other economic events, namely serious inflation I would consider TSHTF.

[mmasters]

Global Economic Crisis (i.e. when the house of cards starts falling)

[kevincarter]

1) Severe economic crash, great depression kind of thing (it doesn't really matter how it happens)

2) President on national TV declaring the cancellation of the constitution, martial law or something alike.

3) Police/army guarding gas stations or food + people yelling at them.

4) Lack of energy or food or water and no expectations of finding any, specially in large cities.

I guess the overall description would be any situation that would make "normal life" change deeply and badly and for a very long period of time. IMO economics is the fastest way in which S can HTF.

[Armageddon]

1) hyperinflation
2) severe economic recession / depression
3) attacking of iranian reactors

I just described 2007 and 2008