[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'B')efore anything happens in USA/EU, you will see tshtf on many overpopulated independent islands who cant feed themselves & live off tourism/IMF. Just look closely at Fiji, Mauritius, Jamaica, Barbados and such. they will be first in the row. So chill out.

[Ibon]

The interdependency amongst the elite, among corporations and governmets to keep the plates spinning for as long as possible is well understood and they will find increasingly desperate ways to prevent chaos and scenarios that lead us toward collapse. I think the area to focus on is what are the tipping points that will cause countries to abandon cooperation and go for unilateral survival.

Certainly the US invasion of Iraq will be viewed in hindsight as the opening act. What will follow?

My crystal ball is clouded at the moment. For example, would rationing of fuel allow the elite to keep afloat corporate globalization and keep the elite in power. THis idea which politically today seems unpalatable may end up being the only option available for the elite to prevent all out economic melt down.

So I see cooperation being imposed by geology also becoming a force once the alternative of increasing unilateral policies will be far more threatening to the elites in power. A Clinton type Democrat elected in the US will work toward this end. I don't even know if that's necessarily a good thing!

Maintaining control and power will trump all existing idealogies. Never underestimate the concessions the elite and corporations will be prepared to make to not lose their hegemony.

This game could go on for a long time yet. I don't see anything major threatening this on the short term horizon. You may still have your 5 or 10 years. I would even wager on that being the case

[Sheb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'W')asn't 2007 the year of the crash according to the biggest doomers on the site? Actually, wasn't it 2006, and before that, 2005?

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sheb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'W')asn't 2007 the year of the crash according to the biggest doomers on the site? Actually, wasn't it 2006, and before that, 2005?

[mel1962]

I believe we are seeing the beginning of the production plateau if you look at the monthly EIA data for world oil production it is flat lined! The current gas crisis is caused in part by the peaking of sweet crude and the inability of our refineries to run on the sour. Not only prices are going up, but supplies are very low for the upcoming driving season.

I expect higher prices, gas lines and shortages within weeks! I hope that I am wrong, but I believe we have entered a new era that won't be recognized by the mainstream media for awhile! Keep your power dry, your gas tank full and hope for the best but prepare for the worst!

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'W')asn't 2007 the year of the crash according to the biggest doomers on the site? Actually, wasn't it 2006, and before that, 2005?

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', 'A')n interesting fact check of any group on as free form and self reinforcing organization such as an internet bulletin board is to scroll back into the archives and see what has changed in the "group think" since the beginning. The archives around here go back perhaps 3 years, and even within such a limited timeframe the consistency with which the can continues to get kicked down the road is nothing short of amazing.
What is they say, sit in one place long enough, and the entire world will pass you by? The possibility exists that the same concept will apply around here 10 years from now which would put PO some 12 years in the past, the same people will be saying the same thing about the natural gas powered world which has sprung up around them in the interim. I'm still betting on the big DieOff happening like its supposed to, but the further we get from Peak, the crankier I get about how long its all taking.

[NoLogos]

Until you can define *exactly* what you mean my TSHTF, how will you know? I think we are all frogs in warming water, not really noticing the slow deterioration of our environment, the increasingly rapid change to fascism in our gov't, and our declining living standards. For me, peak oil has hit already. I hope my garden does well this year!
What else could you call it? The dollar has declined 40% in six years, forclosures are at a "historic high" (higher than during the Great Depression), and inflation is ramping up along with gas prices. TPTB are trying to keep everything from crashing, imho. A slow squeeze of the population is acceptable to them.
The era of cheap oil is over, and from now on oil will be cheap only to those rich enough to afford it.

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoLogos', 'U')ntil you can define *exactly* what you mean my TSHTF, how will you know?

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Do you realize you are only the slightest shade of color different from a rapture believing fundamentalist christian, both weary of this degenerate world sharing in a belief that a mighty hand will come and sweep away the detritus in vindication of your beliefs. Whether from the hand of god or the force of geology and nature it is worth exploring from where this death wish comes, no?"

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoLogos', 'U')ntil you can define *exactly* what you mean my TSHTF, how will you know?

[gg3]

The TSHTF moment occurs for each person when they or someone in their close circle of friends and family find that they can't get one or more basic necessities. It could be foreclosures, it could be bare shelves in supermarkets, it could be the gas station runs out of fuel just before they get to the head of a block-long gas line, or it could be someone they know coming back from Iraq with a flag draped across their coffin.

As for the culture of apocalypse:
I was giving this some thought recently, about how all the irrationalists (people who value "the next world" more than "this world") seem to be in agreement that apocalypse is around the corner. For Messianic Jews it's the coming of the Messiah, for apocalyptic Christians it's the Second Coming, and for Muslims it's the Mahdi. Hinduism has the Kali Yuga (the Age of Kali, the god of destruction and creation) but so far that hasn't figured large in Western news. Buddhism doesn't seem to have its own equivalent, though perhaps some of its local sects do, and the same case applies to Wicca and various neopaganisms.

But of course us rationalists (people who value "this world" equally or moreso than the "next world") don't indulge in that sort of thing. Except for PO and global warming. The difference being that we have testable hypotheses and empirical facts to back us up: things that can be measured concretely rather than taken on faith alone.

So at this point we have a very substantial plurality of the human race looking forward to various versions of a global reboot & reformat. There is a subtle difference between believing that a crisis is looming but can be overcome, and believing that a crisis is looming but cannot be overcome.

In WW2, the peoples of the UK, the US, and the USSR, apparently were quite convinced that they would eventually prevail against the Axis. On the other hand, Poland was hit more or less by surprise, Holland was occupied with little chance to fight, and France was somewhere between Poland/Holland and UK/US/USSR.

The Allies fought like hell and eventually prevailed. In Poland and Holland (and presumably other occupied lands), subtle forms of resistance were the norm: personal survival largely by keeping oneself hidden, and cooperation by helping others for example Jews who otherwise would have been deported to the camps. France had the Resistance, which today would be called an organized insurgency.

It would have been obvious madness for a country such as Holland to consider engaging the Wehrmacht in a full-on military confrontation, because the power mismatch was so extreme. Better in that case to hunker down and get by until the storm had passed.

The obvious lesson here is, do what you can with what you have. And no matter what else, you still have free will. Today the consensus worst-case scenario is overshoot & collapse followed by dieoff, followed by rebuilding at an earlier level of technology and lower level of population. (Worse scenarios, such as a last-gasp spasm of full-scale nuclear war, are not consensus even among doomers.)

Generation X and younger will be around for the worst of the crash phase. Perhaps Generation Z will be alive when the rebuilding begins. I for one am not willing to accept the hypothesis that humans have devolved so far since WW2 that they have lost their free will and their will to build and to fight.

The key question should always be, What can each of us do with what we have?

[Kristen]

I still believe this will be a slower process. The standard of living has declined yes, bit our stoplights and street lamps are still humming alive. Imagine how much energy we could save if we shut off all them.

There's been a surge of advertisements about providing the energy we need by the national oil and gas industry. This I consider to be a warning because more and more people are beggining to sense that something isn't right. I see peak oil becoming more mainstream. People have stopped telling themselves gas prices are going to come down. I hope a total collapse is later than sooner.

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fredrik', 'F')act8: Global food production may enter permanent decline because of GCC and impending shortages of fertilizers and pesticides, triggering a world-wide famine.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'E')xcept for PO and global warming. The difference being that we have testable hypotheses and empirical facts to back us up: things that can be measured concretely rather than taken on faith alone.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '.')..



I tend to use the above graphics to depict my predictions for the future. That website provides a fairly plausible scenario.

[NoLogos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoLogos', 'U')ntil you can define *exactly* what you mean my TSHTF, how will you know?

[SevenTen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'E')xcept for PO and global warming. The difference being that we have testable hypotheses and empirical facts to back us up: things that can be measured concretely rather than taken on faith alone.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '.').. See graphic Tyler_JC's post I tend to use the above graphics to depict my predictions for the future. That website provides a fairly plausible scenario.