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Economic growth to end soon - forever

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby Newsseeker » Fri 04 May 2007, 08:06:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak Oil is the idea that the world’s oil production will soon reach a peak and then begin to decline. This will have epoch-changing effects on a growing globalised world economy where over 60 per cent of energy demand is met by burning oil and gas, and where 95 per cent of transport is driven by oil.

Over the last couple of years the status of the peak oil idea has been transformed from that of a Chicken Little conspiracy theory to one commanding the public attention of national governments.

The weeks before Easter 2007 were a truly momentous period for the peak oil debate. Highly respected figures in the oil industry, such a energy investment banker Matt Simmons and legendary Texas oilman T.Boone Pickens, abandoned their usually restrained commentary to declare that world oil production was now at its peak and would henceforth fail to meet future demand increases.
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Re: Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby TommyJefferson » Fri 04 May 2007, 10:12:08

Ha!

Catchy thread title. Good.
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Re: Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby Newsseeker » Fri 04 May 2007, 10:26:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', 'H')a!

Catchy thread title. Good.


Yeah the article is a run of the mill doomer article but there is some new information. Glad you liked it!
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Re: Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby AFO » Fri 04 May 2007, 10:58:45

Bloomberg


Forget peak, look at 2007 U.S. 1st Qtr economic growth of less than 1.3%.

We are at recession, and put rising oil price & then put declining housing & auto sector.

Do I smell depression & 10-20% Dow crash for 2008?
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Re: Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby Windmills » Fri 04 May 2007, 11:04:36

I don't think economic growth will end forever. After TSHTF, dries, turns to dust, and then the dust settles, there will be opportunities for economic growth. We'll go back to expanding our economies like we did in the good ol' days: we attacked and conquered other people. A reversion to slavery could also bring about some growth around the world.
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Re: Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby Eli » Fri 04 May 2007, 11:17:54

Well slavery depends on your definition.

Slaves were fed and sheltered in exchange for their labor. Not too far past peak the lucky ones will be the people working for food and shelter.
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Re: Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby KhanCEO » Fri 04 May 2007, 14:38:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'W')ell slavery depends on your definition.

Slaves were fed and sheltered in exchange for their labor. Not too far past peak the lucky ones will be the people working for food and shelter.


Only the international bankers could have an economy that is worse than slavery. At least in slavery the slaves are kept alive.
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Re: Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby eXpat » Fri 04 May 2007, 16:59:11

For the last two weeks that I have been checking the news the future of the economy looks more and more grim:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ust as wages within their economic sector are being deflated; so must the value of their assets be deflated. This has to occur so that new members of their socioeconomic group, those just entering America’s global workforce, can afford to participate; including those living and working here illegally.

What we’re seeing now is just the beginning of a global revaluation; a downward harmonization of American worker’s livelihoods with the livelihoods of the world’s other working people. Furthermore, this state of affairs isn’t going to end any time soon; not until the descending worth (wages and assets) of America’s working classes, meets the ascending worth (wages and assets) of the labor they compete with globally.

Original article here
I keep having lately that gut feeling that soon something big is going to give up :(
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Re: Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby Ludi » Fri 04 May 2007, 18:47:08

Front page story today on the San Antonio Express News : Housing starts down 25%, houses sitting on the market, up 60%. (I don't have the paper in front of me, those are the numbers I'm remembering)


So, finally, housing is taking a dive in San Antonio, TX, of all places!


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Re: Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby turp182 » Fri 04 May 2007, 19:24:58

The Dow has had its best short term run since 1927, before the Great Depression.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/04/markets ... tm?cnn=yes

History rhymes, and so does recession and depression.

The market is euphoric, high on the smell of money.
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Re: Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby whereagles » Fri 04 May 2007, 20:07:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Windmills', 'I') don't think economic growth will end forever. After TSHTF, dries, turns to dust, and then the dust settles, there will be opportunities for economic growth.


Agreed. My money's on logaritmic growth with hiccups corresponding to non-renewable resource depletion.
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Re: Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby killJOY » Fri 04 May 2007, 20:10:08

Is this a bad thing? I wonder.

I occasionally lose my sense of dread, think the "end of growth" is the beginning of something new and wonderful.

Then I go into town in my car.

DOOMED!
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby erl » Fri 04 May 2007, 20:38:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AFO', 'D')o I smell depression & 10-20% Dow crash for 2008?


I would put it more as Fall, 2007.

I hope we make it to 2008. More time to prepare.
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Re: Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby Ludi » Fri 04 May 2007, 21:03:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'I') occasionally lose my sense of dread, think the "end of growth" is the beginning of something new and wonderful.


The "end of growth" might lead to the survival of the human species.
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Re: Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby billp » Fri 04 May 2007, 22:47:31

I read on Internet that the Chinese are getting get tired of their about 4% returns on treasuries.

I read that the Chinese are thinking of investing their money in the us stock market instead which, I read, could drive the us stock market DJI to over $36,000.

I only read these things. Not my area of expertise.

Regards
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Re: Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby Pops » Sat 05 May 2007, 15:12:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'T')hen I go into town in my car.

Too funny KJ!

But take heart, if you are doomed, at least you will outlast most of us and still capable of tossing out the occasional acerbic comment.
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Re: Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby NEOPO » Sat 05 May 2007, 15:19:41

<in a hush voice> The password for today is... acerbic 8)

<allows a tossed salad joke to come to his mind but is hesitant to use it> :-D
It is easier to enslave a people that wish to remain free then it is to free a people who wish to remain enslaved.
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Re: Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby PeakOiler » Sat 05 May 2007, 15:41:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', '[')i]<in a hush voice> The password for today is... acerbic 8)

<allows a tossed salad joke to come to his mind but is hesitant to use it> :-D


You guys crack me up! :lol:
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby Tyler_JC » Sat 05 May 2007, 15:55:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('billp', 'I') read on Internet that the Chinese are getting get tired of their about 4% returns on treasuries.

I read that the Chinese are thinking of investing their money in the us stock market instead which, I read, could drive the us stock market DJI to over $36,000.

I only read these things. Not my area of expertise.

Regards


I was not aware that central banks were allowed to invest in the stock market.

Wouldn't that raise serious red flags from US regulators?

If the Bank of America were to invest its deposits in the NASDAQ, someone would surely intervene.
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Re: Economic growth to end soon - forever

Postby mmasters » Sat 05 May 2007, 17:18:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')I was not aware that central banks were allowed to invest in the stock market.

Wouldn't that raise serious red flags from US regulators?

If the Bank of America were to invest its deposits in the NASDAQ, someone would surely intervene.

Central banks are primary government lenders which for the most part puts them above the law. The fed isn't audited, just the banks which serve it, that provides the illusion of regulation going to the top.

Furthermore, banks do much more powerful than invest their deposits in the NASDAQ, they lend out their deposits and create "debt notes" (or new money) in tandem with lending it, then charge interest on it. The trick is having society believe that the banks are deposit safe keepers, that avoids things like "bank runs" where the bank locks up and people can't access their money (due to lack of "on hand" deposits because they were lent out!)

Additionally while these deposits are not being lent out to others (and new money created) they are free to be put into a money market account and invested in the bond market.
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