Those who have called a peak in oil production.

by **joewp** » Sun 11 Mar 2007, 21:37:33

You're right Newsseeker, Pickens is the only guy who has called a peak before, the others are first time callers. I don't believe this has happened before. Based on this video I'd say that Hubbert called it for around now first, over 30 years ago.

by **seahorse2** » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 12:05:15

This guy is at least implying peak oil, although he apparently never used those words.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ames R. Schlesinger, a leading expert in the energy field and the first U.S. Secretary of Energy, spoke yesterday evening at the Lyric about the nation’s energy crisis. Schlesinger is also currently co-chairing a study for the Department of Defense energy strategy. He articulated that consumption of oil as an energy source in today’s society is a serious problem that will not disappear in the near future, but rather demand immediate attention.

“We are not going to reach energy independence in this nation and have better control over our national security as long as we remain dependent on the internal combustion engine and air traffic to move people and goods,” Schlesinger said.

by **dohboi** » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 18:21:37

Schlesinger talked about peak quite forcefully about a year ago, as I recall, but I can't find the link right now. Does anyone else have it?

by **grabby** » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 23:10:42

by **DantesPeak** » Sun 22 Apr 2007, 00:04:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eaking of world oil production: Recent forecasts
Predicting the timing of a peak may not be possible, but inadequate investment could make geological considerations moot.
Robert L. Hirsch, Senior Energy Program Advisor, SAIC
April 2007

Because oil is a depleting, finite natural resource, world conventional oil production will reach a maximum, or peak, after which production will decline.1 Using differing methodologies and information of widely varying quality, experts and organizations have attempted to forecast the likely year of world conventional oil production peaking. The recent range of such estimates extends from late 2005 to an apparent denial that it will ever happen. Almost all forecasts are based on differing, often dramatically differing geological assumptions. Explicit account of investment rates in new and expanded production has been relatively rare.

Because of the large uncertainties, it is difficult to define an overriding geological basis for accepting or rejecting any of the forecasts. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently warned that worldwide investment in expanded oil production has been considerably less than needed to continue world oil production that is adequate to meet expected world demand. Thus, geological limits may be yielding to inadequate investment.

Peak oil presents the world with a risk management problem of tremendous complexity and enormity. Prudent risk minimization requires the implementation of mitigation measures roughly 20 years before peaking, to avoid a very damaging world liquid fuels shortfall.2 Since it is uncertain when peaking will occur or whether it will be due to geological or investment constraints, the challenge is indeed vexing.

by **Newsseeker** » Mon 23 Apr 2007, 09:19:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'Y')ou're right Newsseeker, Pickens is the only guy who has called a peak before, the others are first time callers. I don't believe this has happened before. Based on this video I'd say that Hubbert called it for around now first, over 30 years ago.

by **halcyon** » Mon 23 Apr 2007, 10:20:07

Another independent study in a peer-review publication, using Hubbert's logistic equation.

Seppo Korpela (PhD, in Current Science, November, 2006):

"Peak in 2009, with uncertainty. Range in [2005 - 2014]" [not sure, but I think for all liquids"]

http://mecheng.osu.edu/~korpela/Korpela ... cience.pdf

I think it is also fair to point out that Laherrere and Campbell called for a peak to happen at no later than 2010 (in their seminal 1998 Scientific American article).

Their current estimate (as per latest ASPO newsletter is 2011 for all liquids).

by **nocar** » Mon 23 Apr 2007, 11:13:58

I looked at the article by Koskela. Did not read much of it, but noted a factual error in the end remarks: He says that oil has replaced coal. Granted, coal was not the topic of his article, but it is quite interesting that this misconception is so entrenched. I thought so too until a last years or so, while reading this thread or some similar. Coal consumption has not decreased, just moved a bit out of view. Concurrently with using more and more oil, we (humanity) are using as much coal as ever.

nocar

by **MonteQuest** » Mon 23 Apr 2007, 12:43:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nocar', 'I') looked at the article by Koskela. Did not read much of it, but noted a factual error in the end remarks: He says that oil has replaced coal. Granted, coal was not the topic of his article, but it is quite interesting that this misconception is so entrenched. I thought so too until a last years or so, while reading this thread or some similar. Coal consumption has not decreased, just moved a bit out of view. Concurrently with using more and more oil, we (humanity) are using as much coal as ever.

nocar

by **Plantagenet** » Mon 23 Apr 2007, 14:58:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', ' ')Are there heavyweight thinkers in the industry who contest Hubbert-Deffeyes?

by **Plantagenet** » Mon 23 Apr 2007, 15:05:55

There is an immense amount of data for every country
in the world and every aspect of
this issue at the USGS web site on world oil reserves.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-060/

by **joewp** » Mon 23 Apr 2007, 16:14:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')hey maintain a public website and definitely DO NOT concur that we are at Peak Oil.

by **Shea** » Mon 23 Apr 2007, 16:17:21

Hello Everyone - I don't think any other group of individuals have ever had access to this much data concerning a crucial turning point, or end, of their civilization just as it was occurring. I'm sure many people knew when the Roman empire collapsed just because everything went to hell in handbasket. But I do believe we're the first to be observing from the heights ... just before the calamitous plunge. Oh, well, Gore Vidal has observed that History is now equipped with a fast forward button, courtesy, we can now see, of oil & gas.

I have a contribution to make to these interesting discussions. While reading Matthew Simmons "Twilight in the Desert," certain correlations started leaping up at me. As of 4/20/07, I was ready to organize these correlations into a theory. Here is Shea's Theory:

Shea’s Theory states that when a country reaches that point in crude oil production which is known as Hubbert’s Peak (i.e., that is when fifty percent of eventual crude oil production has been reached), then within three to six years this country will experience moderate to severe economic, social, and political turmoil. The degree and timing of this turmoil depends upon the following factors: the dependence of the individual country upon its own crude oil production to meet its energy needs and to subsidize consumer imports; the rate of relative decline in production; degree of difficulty encountered in replacing missing energy inputs; and the degree to which country had prepared beforehand for this inevitable geological event.

Examples:
- United States: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1970; oil crisis followed three years later in 1973.
- Soviet Union: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1989; dissolution of country followed in 1991.
- Iran: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1974; revolution followed in 1979.
- Indonesia: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1991; financial crisis followed in 1997.
- Iraq: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1989; invasion of Kuwait followed in 1991.

While this theory is based upon historical data for countries, I believe it can be applied to the entire world. Because of our improved secondary recovery methods, I'm beginning to suspect that the plunge when it comes will be steeper than previously thought.

by **DesertBear2** » Mon 23 Apr 2007, 16:22:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')here is an immense amount of data for every country
in the world and every aspect of
this issue at the USGS web site on world oil reserves.
http://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-060/

by **halcyon** » Fri 11 May 2007, 11:25:33

Jim Buckee, CEO of Talisman Inc (oil company) thinks we are at Peak Oil:

http://www.canada.com/components/print. ... 1009c97442

The list keeps on growing...

by **TonyPrep** » Fri 11 May 2007, 17:21:16

From that article

"In a nutshell, the Peak Oil theory holds that we have more or less discovered all the (significant) oil there is to find on the planet and that we are on a long, steady, decline with respect to new discoveries that is destined to conflict with soaring global demand, causing us to run out of the precious commodity at some point."

That is the most convoluted "nutshell" definition that I've heard. Where did the reporter get that from?

Probably the same place as his unexplained conclusion: "The answer, I suggest, may not be as unequivocal as Talisman's chief executive suggested Wednesday."

by **joewp** » Fri 11 May 2007, 23:16:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jeezlouise', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou really need to add Stuart Staniford to this list. See his work today at The Oil Drum. Link: The Oil Drum on SA decline

by **killJOY** » Sat 12 May 2007, 07:24:49

Here's another academic in the peak now camp. He's one of our unsung heroes, having long ago tried (and given up) warning people about peak.

This is my article about Craig Bond Hatfield.

by **mkwin** » Mon 11 Jun 2007, 05:33:46

I was wondering if anyone had any historic forecast data from any of the main forecasters?.

The reason I ask is Lynch argues there are flaws in many of the peak oilers forecast models/methods. It would be interesting to see how successful the differing camps have been in the past at predicting supply.

by **Troyboy1208** » Mon 11 Jun 2007, 14:45:37

@Killjoy
That was a very good read on your interview with Craig Bond Hatfield. I enjoyed it immensely and realized this guy has a good head on his shoulders and has nothing to gain or lose with his predictions. Scary stuff but it confirms my worse fears. Thanks for the contribution

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