KJ - nice read - thanks for posting the link.
Comments section had some real winners from your buddy Savinar:
" I have a location picked out that I think may have a shot of maintaining human dignity as the shit hits the fan. I'm visiting in 6 weeks for about 10 days. "
Um...he's still a liitle behind from the date of post March 17.
"I hope to be the hell off the NA continent before the fall starts. "
Ummmm...he said not SA - sooooooooooooooooooooooooo...where do you think that would be KJ for a $2500 RT ticket?
"Do the words "Blackwater", "Halliburton" and "the Bush administration" ring a bell for you? Apparently not."
ummmmmmmmmmmmm...white guy in SA ain't gonna go over real well...ask Ruppert.
"If you're area has enough food but is not physically isolated, it will simply attract people from other areas thereby destroying whatever the advantages are."
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhh....he's looking at an island...nice...better get snipped...we all know what happened on Easter Island.
"My goal is to make it to one of those pockets and try to make the best of a bad situation."
What a great goal Matthew!!!....who else thinks this is a great goal...just a show of hands will be fine.
"Come on, lets' get real. People aren't learning about it. There are about 5,000-10,000 of us who check the blogs. That's it."
And fewer who HAVE set up an off grid site...Matt U should try it sometime.
"There is no peak oil "movement" and there never will be a movement to address peak oil or any other limits to growth beyond a handfull of activists getting non-funded resolutions passed in cities that are prime nuclear targets. (portland and sf) "
Oh but Matt - there NEEDs to be a peak movement to sell more sun ovens bro...you need this movement to happen.
"Most of NA will be turned into a nuclear wasteland. Getting off the NA continent is priority #1."
Still smells like SA...maybe even Paraguay...are you lieing to us Matt? I think you are currently - as in today - in SA.
"Richard [heinberg] is almost 60. My guess is he doesn't care if he dies in the ensuing chaos. "
Really Matt - you ask him bout that? I think Heinberg does care.
"Well just go watch Children of Men as that is a pretty good approximation of what I think most of the world will fall into."
Agreed
"I'm only afraid of death without dignity. "
Wow Matt - you really are unique.
Ok - bottom line...it's not that I disagree with Matt...I just find it odd that the Alpha Male Prophet of Doom has waited as long as he has to make a move.
I guess doing "due dillgence". You know them fall out maps have only been around since the 50s.
Roccman gazes into his crystal ball (with a slight crack in it) and sees Matt "on my way to paraguay" Savinar racing to the airport for his final flight off NA only to learn the plane is out of juice.
Good luck bro.
PeakOil is You
Those who have called a peak in oil production.
Re: Those who have called a peak in oil production.
by roccman » Mon 11 Jun 2007, 15:52:45
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Re: Those who have called a peak in oil production.
by evilgenius » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 05:00:31
I got out of NA earlier this year (07). I am giving Europe a try, specifically the UK. I don't think that I am comfortable with the US post peak for lots of reasons but the biggest is the definitive waste that goes on there. Sure, the North Sea is tanking and energy is expensive here but there is also an inherent resource conservatism here that I appreciate. They know how to function as a society while undergoing resource limitations. And they know how to do that and keep the level of social discourse civil.
Yes, a lot of what passes for a coping mechanism here is economic. The taxes are way too high and the committment to public transport not as thorough as it would appear upon first glance. They will have their biggest problem when their complex and overly bureaucratic civil service structure gets overwhelmed and simply freezes up or seeks to implement all of the wrong fixes. That is when I think the basic social structure here will take over. Given enough time, and enough political luck to rid themselves of geopolitical plot twisters like Blair and replace them with pragmatic investors and builders, they will work out a sustainable solution.
Solar and windpower could work here in a house by house fashion if they could get the government investment to aid those that might want to put together the packages. Going 12 volt would keep the lights on. Retro fit foam over fir strip under drywall insulation packages made available for both the DIY and contractor market is far more important than making people get a home information packet complete with energy usage documentaion for some exorbitant cost. Likewise making sure that gap plugging weather strips and window covers are available cheaply would help the UK more than, say, putting a GPS in everybody's car and using it to collect more taxes. Public transport exists but it is very expensive, even to go a limited distance. That would be okay if everything could be found locally, that is to say both food and essentials. They ought to consider electric buses from town to town linking the country together over short distances.
Enough about complaint, though, there is a good central power structure here that won't cripple up under public pressure to do every special interest thing thrown their way. They won't stop necessary projects (Severn Barrage, nuclear power) just because of a little whinging either.
Yes, a lot of what passes for a coping mechanism here is economic. The taxes are way too high and the committment to public transport not as thorough as it would appear upon first glance. They will have their biggest problem when their complex and overly bureaucratic civil service structure gets overwhelmed and simply freezes up or seeks to implement all of the wrong fixes. That is when I think the basic social structure here will take over. Given enough time, and enough political luck to rid themselves of geopolitical plot twisters like Blair and replace them with pragmatic investors and builders, they will work out a sustainable solution.
Solar and windpower could work here in a house by house fashion if they could get the government investment to aid those that might want to put together the packages. Going 12 volt would keep the lights on. Retro fit foam over fir strip under drywall insulation packages made available for both the DIY and contractor market is far more important than making people get a home information packet complete with energy usage documentaion for some exorbitant cost. Likewise making sure that gap plugging weather strips and window covers are available cheaply would help the UK more than, say, putting a GPS in everybody's car and using it to collect more taxes. Public transport exists but it is very expensive, even to go a limited distance. That would be okay if everything could be found locally, that is to say both food and essentials. They ought to consider electric buses from town to town linking the country together over short distances.
Enough about complaint, though, there is a good central power structure here that won't cripple up under public pressure to do every special interest thing thrown their way. They won't stop necessary projects (Severn Barrage, nuclear power) just because of a little whinging either.
When it comes down to it, the people will always shout, "Free Barabbas." They love Barabbas. He's one of them. He has the same dreams. He does what they wish they could do. That other guy is more removed, more inscrutable. He makes them think. "Crucify him."
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Re: Those who have called a peak in oil production.
by TonyPrep » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 06:11:22
Well I moved my family out of Britain, because I couldn't see it making an ordered transition to a lower energy sustainable future. None of the politicians there (or anywhere else, I suppose) understand the meaning of sustainability. More nuclear is likely, another reason to leave. Nimbyism is strong. Laws to control citizens are increasing. The weather is not great for much of the year and the amount of arable land per person is small. Land is very expensive.
However, different people see different things. Good luck with your adventure.
However, different people see different things. Good luck with your adventure.
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Re: Those who have called a peak in oil production.
by Smudger » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 06:34:04
my sense is if the UK solves the worrying increase in state control - its seems a lot of politicians have missed the point that you can't achieve a riskless society (and nor would you want one painful though it maybe to lose a loved one as a price for that freedom) and that the current Blair/brown approach of negative freedom i.e. a democracy with lots of rules has been shown to be bankrupt; then we will actually be in a relatively good position assuming we stop any further population growth, really invest in public transport (cross-rail etc) and rediscover home grown produce. its always good to be on an island....
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Re: Those who have called a peak in oil production.
by killJOY » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 06:41:34
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat was a very good read on your interview with Craig Bond Hatfield. I enjoyed it immensely and realized this guy has a good head on his shoulders and has nothing to gain or lose with his predictions. Scary stuff but it confirms my worse fears. Thanks for the contribution
You've put your finger right on it. He is polite, professional, and hardly of a "doomer" mindset. He has studied this a long time and decided to quietly retire knowing there was nothing more he could do.
Imagine what a "celebrity" he could be now with peak oil getting quite a hearing on the Internetss? He chooses not to get involved anymore. What does that tell us?
The understatement of his answers is quite shocking when you think about it.
Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: Those who have called a peak in oil production.
by Doly » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 07:00:24
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', '
')The understatement of his answers is quite shocking when you think about it.
')The understatement of his answers is quite shocking when you think about it.
I just read the article, and I'm impressed. He has the same attitude of an Englishman told he's got an incurable disease. "If there's no remedy, why fret?"
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Re: Those who have called a peak in oil production.
by roccman » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 10:04:42
"Imagine what a "celebrity" he could be now with peak oil getting quite a hearing on the Internetss?"
Hit the nail right on the head bro...
From Sharon the bigot to Matt the shill.
We all wanna be "Peak Oil Stars"
Excellent!!
Hit the nail right on the head bro...
From Sharon the bigot to Matt the shill.
We all wanna be "Peak Oil Stars"
Excellent!!
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Re: Those who have called a peak in oil production.
by Mircea » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 01:32:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shea', 'E')xamples:
- United States: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1970; oil crisis followed three years later in 1973.
- United States: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1970; oil crisis followed three years later in 1973.
Not related.
The "oil crisis" to which you refer was an oil embargo levied by OPEC because Nixon finally relented and released satellite and aerial recon photos to the Israelis in the 1973 war.
Those photos provided the locations of the Egyptian ADA net and were critical. It allowed, I think Moshe Dyan, to lead paratroops (as infantry not airborne) into the Egyptian rear area and destroy the air defense command and control network. Israeli air losses were at a ratio of 3:2 at the time, and Israeli armor was getting pounded with losses of 2:3 (they were losing 3 tanks for every two they destroyed). Once the ADA net was gone, Isaeli aircraft were able to target Egyptian anti-armor units and stop the losses long enough to mount a counter-offensive.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shea', '-') Soviet Union: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1989; dissolution of country followed in 1991.
Not related.
The USSR had serious economic problems starting in the early 1970s. Gorbachev, as head of the 1st Directorate before becoming KGB director, was hugely successful in recruiting spies in the US FBI, CIA and military branches. Those spies helped the KGB to identify US and western spies in the USSR who were executed, removed, or kept in place and given false information to pass to the US, which blinded the US to the economic morass that was affecting the USSR.
The political turmoil from the successions of Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko (2 of the 3 were most likely assassinated), then Gorbachev, didn't help matters. The actions taken by Gorbachev and Yeltsin accelerated the demise of the USSR, not delayed it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shea', '-') Iran: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1974; revolution followed in 1979.
Not related.
The shah announced to Sullivan (US ambassador to Iran) his intent to abdicate for health reasons (cancer) and sought visas for he and his family to enter the US. Sullivan unwisely used British and French contacts to establish a dialogue with Khomeini who was in exile in Paris. When the French discovered that the purpose of the dialogue was to recruit Khomeini to replace the shah, the French leaked that info to their agents at a mosque in Tabriz, because they wanted their man another ayatollah whose name escapes me, to gain power in Iran, which would effectively increase French influence and hegemony in the region. Within hours the country broke down in revolution.
Despite the pleas of Sullivan and Al Haig (Army CofS) to bring Khomeini in, Carter stupidly sent General Hugyens to Iran to convince the Iranian military to take over the country. That led Khomeini to believe that the US was attempting to double-cross him and set him up for assassination. It went downhill from there.
The shah never got a US visa. Carter told him to bite the big one. Eventually, Egypt had pity on the shah and granted him a visa, and that's where he died.
Faisal. Qasim. Saddam. Massadeq. Pahlavi. Bhutto. Don't think for a moment the point isn't lost on the leaders of the current autocratic regimes in the Middle East.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shea', '-') Indonesia: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1991; financial crisis followed in 1997.
Not related.
That was George Soros and a few others who orchestrated that, then Clinton quite happily rammed the Washington Consensus down their throats.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shea', '-') Iraq: Peak crude oil production occurred in 1989; invasion of Kuwait followed in 1991.
Not related.
US troops from VII Corps based in Germany had already been conducting desert warfare training in the Turkish desert on the border of Iraq since late 1988, before Iraqi oil "peaked," and they continued to train in preparation for the invasion of Iraq right up through the spring of 1990.
Given the outstanding performance of those units during the Gulf War, I'd say the training paid off.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shea', 'W')hile this theory is based upon historical data for countries, I believe it can be applied to the entire world.
