[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'T')here are already lots of folks in third world countries that have been cut out of the picture and have had to make other arrangements..

[Smudger]

2007 - saudis et alia keep up pretence of holding oil production to maintain prices - lots of "crisis" to allow for any price spikes
2008 - queries re lower oil levels held explanation of why less need to hold so much, possible announement of US troop withdrawls in iraqi (but not all....) to lower tensions
2009 - no longer able to hide spinning of line about plateau etc and not to worry
2010 - trouble at mill

i would say this is if oil has peaked my money is on 2008, but just change the years around. although lets not go with the total doom scenario just yet, more people changes vehicles because of climate change etc the longer most people are kept in the dark put psuhed on climate change the better

[Leanan]

THE CENTURY OF ROOTS

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he 21st century is still young as there are another ninety-three years to go. So it might sound over-ambitious to claim that 'The Event of the Century' is already behind us. But I'll gladly take the risk; for I seriously believe that the peaking of the global production of crude oil --- commonly know as 'Peak Oil' --- has occurred in 2006 and will be 'The Event' bound to dominate the history of the 21st century: one of those 'Historical Inflection Points' which abruptly change "fundamentals" in the course of World History. I cannot foresee any other 'Event' coming to eclipse 'Peak Oil', not even the World Wars which might be unleashed in the Peak's aftermath and further fueled by widespread resources' scarcity....

After some 147 years of almost uninterrupted supply growth to a record output of some 81-82 million barrels/day [mb/d] in the summer of 2006, crude oil production has since entered its irreversible decline. This exceptional reversal alters the energy supply equation upon which life on our planet is based.

[Aaron]

[Ayame]

Bakhtiari is my favourite peak oil expert.

[Twilight]

So that would be a "no" to mitigation, then.

[dhfenton]

Interesting that he is agreeing with the models that have us producing 2/3 of our current production in 2020. This is not an amount which would lead one to accept the end of the world scenario that many seem to accept. That time frame, and still relatively abundant oil for over a decade after the peak should lead to lifestyle changes, and decreased travel; but I don't see it as an insurmountable, run for the hills type of calamity, unless governments turn it into one with their war machines.

[Dvanharn]

In spite of the increasing number of articles on peak oil and related issues cropping up these days (thanks for the many continuing links, Leanan!), some people, especially "conservatives," don't even see peak oil as worth mentioning. In one of the today's front page links here at peakoil.com, FrontPageMagaine, a site that is part of David Horowitz' ultra conservative "Freedom Center," omits peak oil or depletion in many major oil fields, from it's causes for high energy prices. Here's their perspective:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')nergy prices are set by complex interactions in a global marketplace. No one actor or set of actors controls prices.

The price run-up last year was a consequence of many factors. Among the causes: rising oil consumption in China and India; continuing problems with Iraqi oil production; the unsettling impact of the Iran nuclear controversy; political instability in leading African and South American oil producers; limited U.S. refinery capacity; persistent production and refining problems left over from Katrina; the segmented gasoline market, requiring production of multiple "boutique" fuels; and the replacement of MTBE as a fuel additive.

[lys3rg0]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayame', 'B')akhtiari is my favourite peak oil expert.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')akhtiari is a senior expert employed by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). He has held a number of senior positions with this organisation since 1971. He is also an advisor to the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dhfenton', 'I')nteresting that he is agreeing with the models that have us producing 2/3 of our current production in 2020. This is not an amount which would lead one to accept the end of the world scenario that many seem to accept. That time frame, and still relatively abundant oil for over a decade after the peak should lead to lifestyle changes, and decreased travel; but I don't see it as an insurmountable, run for the hills type of calamity, unless governments turn it into one with their war machines.

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dhfenton', 'I')nteresting that he is agreeing with the models that have us producing 2/3 of our current production in 2020. This is not an amount which would lead one to accept the end of the world scenario that many seem to accept.

[grink1tt3n]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dhfenton', 'I')nteresting that he is agreeing with the models that have us producing 2/3 of our current production in 2020. This is not an amount which would lead one to accept the end of the world scenario that many seem to accept. That time frame, and still relatively abundant oil for over a decade after the peak should lead to lifestyle changes, and decreased travel; but I don't see it as an insurmountable, run for the hills type of calamity, unless governments turn it into one with their war machines.

[MD]

Summary:

Bakhtiari is waxing philosophical because there are no other effective mitigation strategies available.

The game is over.

[grink1tt3n]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')akhtiari is a senior expert employed by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). He has held a number of senior positions with this organisation since 1971. He is also an advisor to the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grink1tt3n', 'I') wonder what his political affiliations are. Is he closely linked to the current Iranian regime?

I wonder if he's just trying to stir the shit, so to speak.

[AFO]

U.S. is not worried about peak Oil. You might ask why?

U.S. has primary access to Iraq oil & has secured access to Iraq's Oil through it's oil constitution. By 2010 Iraq will produce 3 million extra oil barrel per day, in terms of production.

I believe this will cover our shortage at least through 2015.
By 2015 hydrogen technology will be integrated in our infrastructure up to 80% level, specifically in the transportation industry. U.S.'s 25% oil consumption will be reduced to 15% level, due to less dependence on oil for our transportation industry.

After 2015 U.S. will not require to export any oil from the opec nations. Canada,mexico & Venezuala's oil exports should be sufficient enough for U.S. after 2015.

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AFO', 'U').S. is not worried about peak Oil. You might ask why?

U.S. has primary access to Iraq oil & has secured access to Iraq's Oil through it's oil constitution. By 2010 Iraq will produce 3 million extra oil barrel per day, in terms of production.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grink1tt3n', 'I') wonder what his political affiliations are. Is he closely linked to the current Iranian regime?

I wonder if he's just trying to stir the shit, so to speak.