[DantesPeak]

Actually, Iran has never made it secret that it needs nuclear power for energy needs. It just wants to downplay the implication of a petroleum starved future to an Iranian population that is hooked on very low (subsidized) gasoline prices.

The US started developing Iran’s nuclear program in the 1970s. The most amazing thing about Iran’s program is, after 30 years, they still haven’t finished one large scale nuclear power project.

As for myself, I say to those who doubt Bakhtiari, please provide us with someone with a better, more accurate long term prediction on oil production and prices. There may be some, but I’ll guess right now they are all in the PO camp – and not spokesmen for CERA.

While Bakhtiari is scary, even more disturbing is the realization that in the US, we will have a natural gas crisis appearing just before or about the same time worldwide oil production (excluding biofuels) starts to slide lower – events which I am guessing will happen in about 3 years, give or take a year.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', 'H')e sees a decline from a current 81 million barrels to 79 by 2009 and eventually to 55 million by 2020.

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pablo2079', 'N')ewsseeker - I might be splitting hairs, but I don't think anyone will really be measuring what the yearly decline was after "Peak Oil".

How far back would we need to look back to really determine when Peak Oil was?

I believe that TPTB will try and make it sound like this is a temporary decline in production. All we need to do is:

1) Open up ANWR.
2) Open up Coastal Drilling
3) Relax Environmental Regulations
4) Stop the Evil Axis from Restricting the Flow of Oil

etc....

Everything will be blamed but the fact that we outgrew the reserves we have/had.

At this point, we could see an ultra-conservative push.... drop all environmental regs, drill everywhere, and start up more resource wars (to much more of a degree than today)

OR

We may see a shift to the left. Price controls, rationing, pushing of alternatives etc....

Neither of which will be sustainable.... then the sh*t really hits the fan.

[kochevnik]

I think most of us who started on this site years ago are forgetting that it is ALREADY 2007 and Bakhtiari 's 2009 prediction of a 2 mbd drop is right around the corner. So if what he is saying is correct, what we are looking at is a DECLINE of 1 mbd for the next two years followed by a decline of 2.5 to 3 mbd for the succeeding 10 years.

Here is what the price of oil did in 1973 - when I was just a wee lad :




Wikipedia 1973 Oil Crisis

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The effects of the embargo were immediate. OPEC forced the oil companies to increase payments drastically. The price of oil quadrupled by 1974 to nearly US$12 per US gallon barrel

With the onset of the embargo, U.S. imports of oil from the Arab countries dropped from 1.2 million barrels (190,000 m³) a day to a mere 19,000 barrels (3,000 m³). Daily consumption dropped by 6.1% from September to February, and by the summer of 1974, by 7% as the United States suffered its first fuel shortage since the Second World War.

[DantesPeak]

Good point kochevnik, the future is here.

I was lucky enough to have been instructed in college on the details of Limits to Growth in 1974, by someone who had been involved in the project.

That was 33 years ago, and it seemed that resource limitation and pollution problems of the 21st century were so far in the distance that it wouldn't impact during my lifetime. That appears to have been too optimistic of a view.

As far as the price of oil goes, most likely the production and sale of oil and gasoline will eventually be completely controlled by governments. We should enjoy the free market while we can, because even in the US, unrestricted access to gasoline may not survive as we know it past 2010.

[bshirt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', ':')!:

I think most of us who started on this site years ago are forgetting that it is ALREADY 2007 and Bakhtiari 's 2009 prediction of a 2 mbd drop is right around the corner. So if what he is saying is correct, what we are looking at is a DECLINE of 1 mbd for the next two years followed by a decline of 2.5 to 3 mbd for the succeeding 10 years.

A SIX/SEVEN percent drop in consumption (and one would assume the corresponding supply as well) caused a QUADRUPLING of the price of oil.

Based on Bakhtiari's 2.5 percent drop by 2009 and acceleration thereafter, we would be looking at an identical 6 to 7 percent drop sometime within 3 to 4 years from now.

$240 a barrel oil anyone ?

Or perhaps (based on the chart above - (40 / 2.5 * 60) ) - $960 per barrel ?

Impossible, you scoff !

Funny ... that's what they all told us in the 1970's too.

[killJOY]

Bakhtiari's credibility is probably why he was so viciously attacked over at The Oil Drum by one "Freddy Hutter," a disturbed liar.

So I just emailed Dr B about the dispute and he was kind enough to reply! These Internets shur werk good.

http://www.theoildrum.com/comments/2006 ... 313/4490/3

Then it occured to me: I'm in someone's File as having corresponded with someone in IRAN.

Gulp.

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', '
')So I just emailed Dr B about the dispute and he was kind enough to reply! These Internets shur werk good.

http://www.theoildrum.com/comments/2006 ... 313/4490/3

Then it occured to me: I'm in someone's File as having corresponded with someone in IRAN.

Gulp.

[gnm]

Look at the bright side Killjoy, it probably won't stick out because they have you on file for so many other things already....

After they get through with you you'll be admitting to everything from leading al-ciada to killing JFK...

-G

[killJOY]

I should probably go on record:

1. Never met Al Ciada. Never even heard of the guy.

2. I was three years old when Kennedy was assassinated. (Very difficult trying to hide that rifle in my diaper.)

[Newsseeker]

http://www.sfu.ca/~asamsamb/The%20End%2 ... 0Phase.pdf

According to him we will be at 55 mbpd by 2020 and the decline will begin to speed up. Danger ahead!

[some_guy282]

First Simmons and now Bakhtiari. Who else needs to announce it to make it official?

[Minvaren]

The liquids bit at the end definitely shows an "undulating plateau" occurring...

[PWALPOCO]

The language in the reports conclusion seems to be pretty much "the whole peak oil modelling thing is a done deal , no point discussing it , we're here already .... give up !!"

For me that kind of language is a little disturbing and throws up a whole load of questions like ....

Is he so sure , because he IS right ... and he knows it .....

or

Is he so sure because he only "thinks" hes right .....

I know Dr B is pretty respected so whats the feeling here, is it a done deal or is he wrong ?

Paul

[auscanman]

If we have indeed reached peak oil, then the question in my mind becomes how long can this economic game be kept going? If the media do their usual good job of keeping negative voices marginalized, they should be able to convince the consumabot sheeple that massive oil fields yet to be discovered combined with some magic techno fix will save the day and allow the easy driving materialistic orgy going. This should prevent hell from breaking loose for I'd say another 10 years, even in the face of relentless declines in oil output.

of course even consumabots can only take so many disappointments, and after ethanol, and the next 4 or 5 saviors turn out to be total disasters they will get fed up with waiting in soup/bread lines and lose faith in the system.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('auscanman', 'I')f we have indeed reached peak oil, then the question in my mind becomes how long can this economic game be kept going? If the media do their usual good job of keeping negative voices marginalized, they should be able to convince the consumabot sheeple that massive oil fields yet to be discovered combined with some magic techno fix will save the day and allow the easy driving materialistic orgy going. This should prevent hell from breaking loose for I'd say another 10 years, even in the face of relentless declines in oil output.

of course even consumabots can only take so many disappointments, and after ethanol, and the next 4 or 5 saviors turn out to be total disasters they will get fed up with waiting in soup/bread lines and lose faith in the system.

[Armageddon]

80.00 oil will bankrupt this entire civilization and cause massive starvation and total anarchy. I dont thinkwe will make it past 2008

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('auscanman', 'I')f we have indeed reached peak oil, then the question in my mind becomes how long can this economic game be kept going?

[lateStarter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('auscanman', 'I')f we have indeed reached peak oil, then the question in my mind becomes how long can this economic game be kept going? If the media do their usual good job of keeping negative voices marginalized, they should be able to convince the consumabot sheeple that massive oil fields yet to be discovered combined with some magic techno fix will save the day and allow the easy driving materialistic orgy going. This should prevent hell from breaking loose for I'd say another 10 years, even in the face of relentless declines in oil output.

of course even consumabots can only take so many disappointments, and after ethanol, and the next 4 or 5 saviors turn out to be total disasters they will get fed up with waiting in soup/bread lines and lose faith in the system.

[frankthetank]

55mbpd by 2020? Wow. The US will need 25-30 of that, so the rest of the world can scrap by on the remain 20. If i have to start walking my dog or NOT driving to my mailbox, i'm going to get pissed.