[Shea]

Bakhtiari is not alone, certainly. Matthew Simmons has picked December, 2005 as the date. In reading about Peak Oil I've noticed a disturbing correlation: in at least three major countries, the US, Iran & the Soviet Union, after hitting Peak Oil a nation-shaking or destroying crisis hits approximately three years afterwards. If the correlation holds for the entire world, then we're going to have very interesting times indeed over the next year and a half. As for what's going to happen, I can't help but feel the competing appetites of the US and China are going to come to the breaking point. After all, a shortfall of a mere 7-8% brought on the US's first oil crisis in 1973, just three years after Peak Oil.

[erb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AFO', 'U').S. is not worried about peak Oil. You might ask why?

After 2015 U.S. will not require to export any oil from the opec nations. Canada,mexico & Venezuala's oil exports should be sufficient enough for U.S. after 2015.

[UFCjunkie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') think this forum reached PC, Peak Cornucopians, a long time ago.

A person like AFO wanders into the lion's den all cocky and sure of themselves, and then . . . a few posts later . . . they run screaming from the gloom, not even thinking about the lions. For there in the cold of their souls they have seen a dark flame, the true burning light of Hell

he won't be back

[SevenTen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AFO', 'T')he only thing U.S. needs to worry about between 2010-& 2015 is inflation over 3% levels & unemployment higher than 20% level.

[DesertBear2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', '
')But let's not think about what the world will be facing circa 2020 (Bakhtiari estimates we will be down to 55 mbpd) to 2050. The only question that remains is when does industrial civilization effectively shut down?

[SevenTen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesertBear2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', '
')But let's not think about what the world will be facing circa 2020 (Bakhtiari estimates we will be down to 55 mbpd) to 2050. The only question that remains is when does industrial civilization effectively shut down?

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesertBear2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', '
')But let's not think about what the world will be facing circa 2020 (Bakhtiari estimates we will be down to 55 mbpd) to 2050. The only question that remains is when does industrial civilization effectively shut down?

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SevenTen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesertBear2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', '
')But let's not think about what the world will be facing circa 2020 (Bakhtiari estimates we will be down to 55 mbpd) to 2050. The only question that remains is when does industrial civilization effectively shut down?

[dhfenton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dhfenton', '
')
I don't see it as an insurmountable, run for the hills type of calamity, unless governments turn it into one with their war machines.

[SevenTen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dhfenton', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dhfenton', '
')
I don't see it as an insurmountable, run for the hills type of calamity, unless governments turn it into one with their war machines.

[kokoda]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', '
')I will be very generous and say that we can remove 10 mbpd if we reduce but according to Bakhtiari we will only have 55 mbpd in 2020. That is HUGE! A 35% drop in oil. I am REALLY not looking forward to the future. And think about life beyond 2020 like around 2043 when I would be set to retire. What will production be like then? 30 mpbd? 20? Unsustainable is the word for the path that the world is on. If the oil cuts of the 70s caused such problems what will a 35% drop do?

[Ayame]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kokoda', '
')Nobody may get to retire in the future. You will get to work until you are either too frail, too sick, too hungry or too injured to do so ... at which point you will die.

[virgincrude]

Retire from what? Keep working for what? I mean, the currency you will be working for will be practically useless. With upwards of 20% unemployment, whatever job you have in the next 10-15 years will simply be shut down as your companies go bankrupt. Keep working until you expire is a ridiculous notion in the framework of Peak Oil.

Bakhtiari may have excellent credentials as ex-head of Iranian oil, but this prediction of a return to roots in a future oil-depleted society is just 'waxing philosophical' as one poster already said. Basing this prediction on one article from the International Herald Tribune is not exactly scientific methodology, and makes you wonder.

Just as his assertion that Australia is probably best prepared (psychologically) for peak is based on what people told him when he was invited over there to address parliament; Bakhtiari is making a comfortable living expressing himself, whether his expressiveness is waxing philosophical or political/geological doesn't matter, he still gets paid.

Published on 27 Sep 2004 by Peak Oil News and Message Boards. Archived on 27 Sep 2004.
Q&A: Ali Samsam Bakhtiari

"Secondly, allow me to correct a misconception: I am not an eminent NIOC personality. The present company officials simply detest me (all of 'them') and are doing their utmost to have me quit (after 33 years of service, mainly not to pay me my final bonus and retirement); they certainly couldn't care less about 'peak oil' --- and this is as far I can go in a public forum. I leave it to your imagination to envision the rest..."

[virgincrude]

Retire from what? Keep working for what? I mean, the currency you will be working for will be practically useless. With upwards of 20% unemployment, whatever job you have in the next 10-15 years will simply be shut down as your companies go bankrupt. Keep working until you expire is a ridiculous notion in the framework of Peak Oil.

Bakhtiari may have excellent credentials as a chemist forking for Iranian oil, but this prediction of a return to roots in a future oil-depleted society is just 'waxing philosophical' as one poster already said. Basing this prediction on one article from the International Herald Tribune is not exactly scientific methodology, and makes you wonder.

Just as his assertion that Australia is probably best prepared (psychologically) for peak is based on what people told him when he was invited over there to address parliament; Bakhtiari is making a comfortable living expressing himself, whether his expressiveness is waxing philosophical or political/geological doesn't matter, he still gets paid.

Published on 27 Sep 2004 by Peak Oil News and Message Boards. Archived on 27 Sep 2004.
Q&A: Ali Samsam Bakhtiari

"Secondly, allow me to correct a misconception: I am not an eminent NIOC personality. The present company officials simply detest me (all of 'them') and are doing their utmost to have me quit (after 33 years of service, mainly not to pay me my final bonus and retirement); they certainly couldn't care less about 'peak oil' --- and this is as far I can go in a public forum. I leave it to your imagination to envision the rest..."

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayame', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kokoda', '
')Nobody may get to retire in the future. You will get to work until you are either too frail, too sick, too hungry or too injured to do so ... at which point you will die.

[Geko45]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', 'T')hen have your body thrown into a thermal depolymerization plant and come out as oil for others to consume.

[Hawkcreek]

--

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geko45', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', 'T')hen have your body thrown into a thermal depolymerization plant and come out as oil for others to consume.