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THE Tipping Point Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Poll: Americans at "Tipping Point" about Energ

Postby Revi » Thu 30 Mar 2006, 14:42:15

That's why we're working on a solar car with my students. It could be just the thing to get us around town when gas is unavailable.
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The tipping society--tipping more at Christmas

Postby Prince » Wed 20 Dec 2006, 18:38:10

I read a very interesting article on Yahoo a few minutes ago regarding 'tipping' the service industry, with attention given to tipping those on Christmas.

Check out some of the questions from the Yahoo answer board on this very topic:

Do you tip at Christmas? (Yahoo Answers)

The suggestion was to tip everyone extra special that gives you service from the mailman, to the UPS driver, to the hair stylist/cutter, to the dog groomer, to the ___. Are you f-ing kidding me? This is getting goddamn ridiculous. I make a decent salary and tip decent, but not excessive. I've been able to save money and do okay with my finances because I don't piss it away.

I guess I missed the boat here, but I thought good tipping implied good service, and nothing more. The piss-poor argument is that these people don't make a decent living, so we're automatically supposed to add 15-25% on these items. Give me a break.

I get tired of this forced entitlement society we've been transformed to in the last 20 years. It's bad enough the middle class has had their nuts squeezed in every dimension, and now we have to deal with crap like this.

As I said in another post, I spent very little money in comparison to the average on Christmas gifts. I had little urge to shop this year at all. I guess the government doesn't like that, but there's plenty of other people out there to pick up the slack.
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Re: The tipping society--tipping more at Christmas

Postby rogerhb » Wed 20 Dec 2006, 19:06:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Prince', 'I') read a very interesting article on Yahoo a few minutes ago regarding 'tipping' the service industry, with attention given to tipping those on Christmas.


Very culturally specific.

UK, Australia and NZ don't normally tip.

Who has the spare money to tip in addition to paying for whatever?

Perhaps tipping goes nicely hand in hand with that other American blackmail tradition of trick-or-treat.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: The tipping society--tipping more at Christmas

Postby Princess » Thu 21 Dec 2006, 14:42:42

I was thinking about this this morning. Since I hate the fact that my mail carrier trudges through my flower bed every freakin' day delivering my mail, he gets nothing. I don't dry clean clothes. I groom my own dog. The only person I do deal with regularly is my mother's physical therapist. She comes to the house twice and week and has made fabulous progress with my mother. Trouble is there is no $$$ to tip her. So I'm making a small-in-size-but-large-in-variety herb bag, sort of like the lady in the Yahoo article.
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Is PO at the tipping point?

Postby Newsseeker » Mon 16 Apr 2007, 08:38:50

I have followed PO since 2004 and I remember back in the ancient days of 2004 how there were very few articles on PO. Now there are a constant stream of such articles. I saw Simmons on CNN for the first time in 2005 talking about Saudi production. Now he is a regular on CNBC. There is now a Peak Oil Caucus in the Senate and GAO recently released a report on PO. I think the times have changed and the public is ready for the message of PO once real bad problems set in. Once the pain is tight enough there will be a flood of newbies to PO sites and organizations. I believe we have reached the tipping point! What say you?
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Re: Is PO at the tipping point?

Postby Zardoz » Mon 16 Apr 2007, 17:16:53

Not quite there yet. Gasoline in the U.S. has to hit four bucks/gallon and stay there, and we need to see shortages popping up in many areas. Then people will start getting receptive. Until then, we'll maintain our well-practiced denial routines.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: Is PO at the tipping point?

Postby Plantagenet » Mon 16 Apr 2007, 17:20:41

Zardoz is right.

PO will move to the center of the political world when there is an interruption of oil supply or the price rises to some level where real pain occurs.

Also, Al Gore and Greenhouse Warming are sucking up most of the limited amount of oxygen that is available in the political realm for the competing prophecies of doom.
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Re: Is PO at the tipping point?

Postby PenultimateManStanding » Mon 16 Apr 2007, 17:32:22

so much for the 20 year mitigation process.
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Re: Is PO at the tipping point?

Postby Zardoz » Mon 16 Apr 2007, 18:01:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 's')o much for the 20 year mitigation process.

We knew that was wishful thinking the first time we read the Hirsch report.
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Re: Is PO at the tipping point?

Postby PrairieMule » Mon 16 Apr 2007, 18:04:58

I think most of us figured Hurricane Katrina would have been the tipping point based on the movie Oilstorm. Not so.

I think the flashpoint for when TSHF will be on the 3rd day of a trucker's strike.

I predict the independent truck drivers who are locked into contracts will no longer "eat" the fuel costs and will literally shut down America. After 3 days of no trucks, the miracle of "Just-in-Time" inventory used by Wal-Mart and every grocery store will collapse.

Most Americans will pay any price for gas, as long as we have plastic. We may bitch, but in the end we will charge it. Maybe we will get to a point where we cannot afford our house note, but still we will charge it.

The question is not how high will it go for us. What we should be asking is: What is the magic number when will the truckers tell us to go "pleasure ourselves" and stop rolling?
If you give a man a fish you will have kept him from hunger for a day. If you teach a man to fish he will sit in a boat and drink beer all day.
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Re: Is PO at the tipping point?

Postby Eli » Mon 16 Apr 2007, 22:26:25

Well it seems to me we could already be at the tipping point.

I remember back when we were not sure if Cantarell had gone into decline,.... awe the good old days.

If KSA has peaked I think we are at the tipping point. When the global economy, which is growing strong by all counts, hits PO it is going to be ugly.

From everything that I have read here and in other places I think that there is a very strong chance that KSA has peaked and they will never be able to increase their production again.


It could be like we jumped off a cliff, the nations that have oil may try to hold on to it as long as they can. We could have nations basically hording oil which would further hurt the world economy.
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Re: Is PO at the tipping point?

Postby eastbay » Mon 16 Apr 2007, 23:22:06

I remember back when we were not sure if Cantarell had gone into decline,.... awe the good old days.

Ahhhhh yes. It seems like it was just yesterday when many, even among us here, believed Cantarell would last many more years. In fact, I remember when I never heard of Cantarell. And now it's quickly dying.

In a year or two a similar posting will be placed here about Ghawar.

I remember how safe and secure everything in my life was, and then one day I heard the name, Ghawar. :cry:
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Re: Is PO at the tipping point?

Postby PenultimateManStanding » Mon 16 Apr 2007, 23:48:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '.')
I remember how safe and secure everything in my life was, and then one day I heard the name, Ghawar. :cry:
yes, what a mess. I wish the eco-village folks all the best.
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Re: Is PO at the tipping point?

Postby Eli » Tue 17 Apr 2007, 00:13:34

Yeah it is funny.

I think the situation with KSA and Gahwar is eerily similar to that of Cantarell.

Who here would be shocked to find out Ghawar had gone into terminal decline after a half century of production?

That is how screwed we are, we are so screwed we can't even tell we are screwed.

We could start a steep world decline in oil tomorrow, or maybe it will be in three years, there is no way to know.

I think the North Sea, Mexico, Iraq , Nigeria, Venezuela ,Kuwait and KSA all add up to bad news for us all.
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Re: Is PO at the tipping point?

Postby seldom_seen » Tue 17 Apr 2007, 01:12:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'I') remember back when we were not sure if Cantarell had gone into decline,.... awe the good old days.

I remember at the same time the predicted decline rates for Cantarell were very modest...like 3-6% per annum.

I think it's declining at something like 20% now. Those were the days.
But how the world turns. One day, cock of the walk. Next, a feather duster.
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Re: Is PO at the tipping point?

Postby NEOPO » Tue 17 Apr 2007, 01:42:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrairieMule', 'I') think most of us figured Hurricane Katrina would have been the tipping point based on the movie Oilstorm. Not so.

I think the flashpoint for when TSHF will be on the 3rd day of a trucker's strike.

I predict the independent truck drivers who are locked into contracts will no longer "eat" the fuel costs and will literally shut down America. After 3 days of no trucks, the miracle of "Just-in-Time" inventory used by Wal-Mart and every grocery store will collapse.

Most Americans will pay any price for gas, as long as we have plastic. We may bitch, but in the end we will charge it. Maybe we will get to a point where we cannot afford our house note, but still we will charge it.

The question is not how high will it go for us. What we should be asking is: What is the magic number when will the truckers tell us to go "pleasure ourselves" and stop rolling?


Oh man oh man.
Oilstorm by Faux News that never mentioned PO? :roll:

What? like those contracts are good to the day after never?
As if costs wont simply be passed onto the consumer until the consumer no longer buys half the crap they never really needed anyways and then that crap wont need a truck to haul it nor a ship to ship it etc etc...
I expect this from most people but better from you.

I take inspiration from the words of Richard Heinberg when he said "its so easy to go into denial about peak oil because it changes everything" "and so even people who intellectually understand peak oil, as soon as they turn their attention away almost immediately start to go into their normal mode of thinking"
It is easier to enslave a people that wish to remain free then it is to free a people who wish to remain enslaved.
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Re: Is PO at the tipping point?

Postby Eli » Tue 17 Apr 2007, 10:02:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'I') remember back when we were not sure if Cantarell had gone into decline,.... awe the good old days.

I remember at the same time the predicted decline rates for Cantarell were very modest...like 3-6% per annum.

I think it's declining at something like 20% now. Those were the days.


Yup, basically we are living through the worst case doomer scenario as far as Cantarell is concerned.

How things have played out so far really don't give me any reason to be encouraged. There is a post that now shows KSA may not build all those heavy oil refineries they were talking about. HUh who would guessed?
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Re: Is PO at the tipping point?

Postby MD » Tue 17 Apr 2007, 10:17:51

I'm thinking that residual denial continues to infect even the peak oil doomer crowd.

Shit people . . . the "shit is hitting the fan" RIGHT NOW yet we don't quite want to believe it.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: Is PO at the tipping point?

Postby MD » Tue 17 Apr 2007, 10:19:36

Yeah I know; the sun is shining, it's spring, the grocery stores are still full.

It's a f'ing train wreck though. Good grief. Wake up.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: Is PO at the tipping point?

Postby Eli » Tue 17 Apr 2007, 11:47:32

Well put MD

I am kind of shocked by the post so far.

I have read or heard about four things from different sources just this morning that point towards the tipping point.

We are there as far as I am concerned.

KSA is talking about

not building new refineries. The dollar is dropping, gasoline stocks are declining. I mean WTF?

One little tiny push and we are fucked beyond belief.
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